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Mac19 - Lee is correct.
Some people are having difficulty understanding ACTUAL debt versus NET debt.
It's all in the RNS. To calculate ACTUAL debt just add two numbers together - NET debt + Cash in the bank.
If you have trouble adding two numbers together then maybe investing isn't for you.
More buying opportunities if that happens.
* exceeded by 33%
t2 - approx $23.5m outstanding on the senior debt facility. Two more payments of approx $12m should see the senior debt cleared.
Under the terms of the refinance agreement there are no fixed payment schedules. MTL were aiming to pay $30m during 2021 and exceeded this by 25%
The tax is an additional 10% on what MTL are currently paying when the FTAA kicks in.
Maintaining steady state production through another difficult year.
To quote DB during the recent Investor Presentation "We're laser focused on paying the debt" - IMO the senior debt facility should be paid off 2022H1. Interest on mezzanine debt facility then drops to 7%. Approx $84m to payback with $1.4m interest for 2022Q3 and reducing in each subsequent quarter. Two x $12m payments 2022H2 and $63m outstanding. Game on folks.
DB has previously stated that Stage 2 can be mined deeper if necessary.
Road access into stage 3 has been completed and infil resourse drilling can now take place followed by removal of the surface material above the ore body.
Production has been forecast for 2022. Previous forecast for 2021 was accurate so no reason to expect current forecast to be anything G other than accurate.
Talk about short termism lol. Sell up for 100% increase from current SP or collect upto 10p in dividends by 2027.
Anybody else see the irony in that?
Lee - It was only six months ago DB stated that 85% recovery is the target that he will be happy with and when asked about producing 100k oz gold per year for 2022 and 2023 he said, "to put it bluntly, no" and then explained why.
Why will he be happy with 85% recovery? It would not be cost effective to try and gain those extra percentages.
Why no more than 80k oz gold per annum? The higher grade ore is not in sufficient quantity to sustain 25k oz quarterly production for four successive quarters.
The mining dilution has already reduced the gold grade by 25% - 30% and the secondary losses have the reduced the recovery from a feasible 92% to 85%.
This is all of the current guidance from DB only six months ago which is as current as we can get.
Last years forecast looks like being around 5% on the conservative side.
80k oz of gold per annum is the upper target that the mine can produce because of the mining dilution that was not included in the feasibility study and the attainable recovery rate of 85% which includes a significant amount of secondary losses that were not accounted for in the feasibility study.
Darren Bowden explains this perfectly in his answer to Q17 during the Investor Presentation via Investor Meet Company.
The BOD are on target to clear the Senior Debt Facility next year.
Next stages of the mining plan will be opened up accessing the higher grade ore thus helping to drive down AISC.
Reduction in mining fleet trucks from 9 to 6 will drive down AISC even further.
2021Q4 update will hopefully include a forecast of around 80k oz of gold to be mined for 2022 with a lower AISC than 2021.
The current BOD have made excellent progress in the 3 years since Darren Bowden was appointed and, on a shoestring budget, they have turned around a company on the brink of going bankrupt into a steady state producing, cash generating company.
Wishing all holders a Happy, Healthy and Prosperous New Year.
Added another 1.3m today to take me over the 6m mark.
If people want to keep selling at these low levels it makes sense to keep accumulating.
Had just under £20k in dividends so grabbed another 1.4m today to take my total to 4.6m.
AISC should now start falling as the truck fleet will start to be reduced from 9 to 6 trucks thus enabling the debt repayments to be accelerated. Time to be accumulating shares as impatience kicks in for some.
I agree Lee that desperation could be the reason for selling now but I was just wondering if the seller was looking to offload some risk if the expected super typhoon hit closer to home that it did. Typhoon Lando 6 years ago caused significant destruction and disruption which impacted the SP before recovering strongly.
I wonder if the seller had seen the weather forecast.
Based on the information given in Y2020 Financials the current amount outstanding for the Senior Facility Debt is approx $34.5m.
$35.9m debt repayments made in previous 4 quarters since the debt was renegotiated.
Senior Facility Debt to be cleared in 2022.
Churchill 27 - Quarterly update still due by middle of October as per Accipiter's post.
Dradrianc1 - The shareholders who read the RNS's and visit the MTL website don't think that there is a problem as they are seeing results that match what has already been forecast by the BOD. They can see how the situation has improved dramatically since the new CEO was appointed.
The posters on here that think that there is a problem are probably not shareholders. If they are shareholders then they should explain why they are because they clearly bought shares in a company that was is a worse situation than it is now (increasing debt with lower production and lower revenues) and weirdly have a problem with being in a better and improving position.
The debt will be paid down even quicker when MTL can start mining the higher grade stages in a couple of quarters and the AISC are also significantly reduced by the reduction in the mining fleet.
How is adding the additional costs of further exploration drilling at a point when low grade ore is being mined and therefore increasing the AISC even further beneficial?
Reefles - I'll repeat my answer to Lee from last week.
You seem to be getting logic and logistics mixed up. Logically yes, mine the higher grade ore. Logistically stages 1 & 2 have to be mined first while stage 3 is getting prepped for mining now access is possible. The spoil from stage 3 is used to fill the pit created from mining stages 1 & 2. Yes stages 3 & 4 should have started mining by now but the plan has been changed due to the illegal miners and Covid-19 and the plan is to now start mining stage 3 in Q4 at the earliest. The illegal miners must be gone from stage 3 now because that stage is now being prepared for mining. That still takes time.
It would seem that they are not yet gone from stage 3 so no blasting of the area can take place to allow the ore to start to be mined.
Q2 2021 refers to stage 1 area now being back filled with waste from stage 2. So stage 2 has to be mined so that the waste from stage 3 can be back filled into the void created in stage 2.
The following is from the MTL website - Runruno is a conventional drill and blast open pit mining operation. The space available for waste dumps in the mine is constrained by the short strike length of the orebody and steep terrain. Consequently, the waste material from the pit is currently placed in ex-pit dumps, with the pit being developed to accommodate in-pit dumping to progressively fill the mining void.
Also - Mining improvements
The new management redesigned the pit to put in a cutback, to satisfy the required factor of safety for the pit walls. This increased waste movements and stripping ratios from the original designs, however this will ensure safe and stable operation of the pit till 2026.
In addition, the original mine design had major issues with the design of the mine access. As previously mentioned all the mined waste gets placed back in the Runruno pit and thus pit design is staged, where material from a following stage is place back into the pit void created from the previous stages. Previous design didn’t properly plan access ramps from one stage to another and without the redesign and proper sequencing the mine would have ended up being waste bound in 2021 and thus the production would get shut down. This has now been corrected with the redesign of the mine wide ramp system and the mine will become very efficient by Q4 2021 with the waste mined to be backfilled in the stage 1 pit void, thus decreasing the amount of trucks required in the pit, lowering the overall cost base.
Finally, there was a distinct lack of definition drilling and thus the understanding of the mine reserves going forward. This is being corrected with significant money spent on reserve drilling in 2020, with more to be expected in 2021. This will increase the confidence in the mine reserves in the stages 2 & 3, with further work required in stages 4 & 5, thus allowing for better forecasting and short and medium term mine planning.
Gaddes - No it isn't what you said. MTL are not paying off any 15% debt they are only paying off the 7% Senior debt. Only then will payments be made to the Mezzanine debt which will then be 7%. At no point are MTL paying off 15% debt.
$28.6m of debt repaid in 3 quarters. How is that slow?