Member Info for CarefreeCarry

Kat - Mid-tier companies generally return between 25%-40% of FCF to shareholders via dividends and share buybacks. It's a rough guide that I use to give an estimate of future dividend payments by looking at FCF forecasts. The rising gold price has pushed the percentage of FCF returned to shareholders higher recently.

Using your conservative figure of 20% gives 2.4p.

M4L - Assumptions:- 2028 - mid tier company, 3 billlion shares in issue, 122k oz produced, gold at $5,500/oz, $1,500 AISC, $1.33/£ exchange rate giving ~£360m FCF

One third FCF for dividends - £120m hence 4p / share leaving £240m for growth.

Last year I was looking at a dividend of 10p per year from 2028 supported by revenues from La India and Dupax which would have given me £650k per year but would have given Mr Candy £65.3m per year.

Now, based on La India forecasts alone I would be looking at a dividend of 4p per year from 2028, thus giving Mr Candy a measly £26.12m a year. That would equate to another house in London after current LOM at La India.

To the left as usual.

It looks like the PR and comms have improved here.

/s

Rob wasn't the only one starting threads about the non-existent war Eritrea.

Just saying!!

Talking of stupidly wild predictions, can we include the war with Eritrea that certain posters were starting threads about?

🤷😂

At the end of Feb when Trump started his war against Iran, the world collectively wet itself as markets dropped.

Maybe the rest of the world's companies need better PR / CEOs.

Dvh - You are assuming they can think!!!

😂

Surrey - Some of the critical path is out of the company's control. The electrical substation being key and that item is one of the last major milestones in the project. The additional electrical items/work referred to by Darren in the RNS may have also impacted the forecast hence it looks like they will still complete on schedule even though they are currently 5% ahead.

Also, as we are currently only 5% ahead of schedule which, at the end of the project if they can maintain that difference, is only the difference of one month. First pour may have been originally expected at end of Dec '26. Finishing 5% ahead brings us to end of Nov' 26 / beginning of Dec' 26.

Another also, the graph shows that the forecast completion at end of March '26 is 50%. Which is around about the time that Darren was referring to in the video interview when he talks about the analysts visiting the site and him saying to them that we're at 50%. That is something for Sakura7 to contemplate further.

Sakura7 - There's a lack of context to what AuInspired posted with their 50% complete comment.

At that point in the interview, Darren is talking about a future meeting with some analysts and he's talking about telling them we're 50% and then discusses later, about August being at 70% to 80% and the SP having a big bump from that.

So not actually stating that we are currently 50%, in fact, earlier in the interview he just states that we are ahead of schedule of on budget. No figures given. The interview was recorded 4th Feb.

So people posting comments taken out of context from an interview is Darren's fault now and that makes him a salesman rather than a CEO. Whatever fits your agenda I suppose.

Sakura7 - From the 28th Jan RNS :-

"Development - La India, Nicaragua

· Overall construction continues to be within the revised budget and ahead of schedule at 33% complete."

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/MTL/quarterly-update-to-31-december-2025/17433563

The recent investor presentation states the same :-

"La India Overview

Epithermal gold deposit located in Nicaragua within the “Golden Triangle” of the Central American gold belt.

Total MI&I Inventory: 2.3 Moz Au Tonnage: 9.85 Million Tonnes (Mt) Average Grade: 3.9 g/t Au 12.5 year LoM,

Open Pit & Underground: Construction is ~33% complete and remains on schedule and on budget for first gold pour in Q4 2026:

Civil & Structural Works: Bulk earthworks for the processing plant and technical services areas are 100% finished, with structural concrete for the plant foundations currently 30% complete.

Capacity Optimisation: The processing plant design has been upgraded to a throughput capacity of 1.8 Mtpa to enhance production.

Procurement & Timeline: Major equipment procurement is advanced, ensuring the project stays on track for commissioning in the final quarter of 2026

https://metalsexploration.com/investors/presentations/

Progress at ~33% and first pour Q4 2026 (December 2026 is within Q4 2026).

Could you tell us where you got progress at 50% and first pour November 2026?

Emcauslan - You'll know if they care. You'll get filtered posts after your posts which shows that they are probably responding to your posts in some way.

It would seem that it does the filtered poster's head in if they know that they are being ignored by you though 😂😂

Just to add to the discussion about filtering posters :- Filter whoever you want, you are not going to be missing any pearls of wisdom here. There are no nuggets of vital information being presented, it's just people's opinions being posted, which are usually worthless anyway.

I use these forums for the humour value of being able to laugh at the ridiculousness of some of the posters here. The hypocrisy displayed by some is truly amazing. That has to be laughed at, otherwise they will take themselves seriously and become even more deluded 😂😂😂

Deedee1 - Possibly.

Type? Definitely.

About as believable as a Newt79, TungstenInvestor or Bonkers post.

There have already been body bags returning with Trump turning up wearing his white merch baseball cap and saluting the bodies.

No class and no idea what he is doing.

I read a post somewhere suggesting that Trump surrounds himself with experts. Zero evidence of that in this administration unless you count the conspiracy theorists, former news presenters, Elon Musk and family members that are all experts in being unaccountable.

And once again, gold tanking and Kefi SP 1p today.

🤡

Looks like Jewster's abusive post got moderated.

Trading for 50 years and still not retired 😂😂😂

TungstenInvestor - How much did gold tank by yesterday? Could you remind us?

How's your short looking?