Member Info for CaneToad

Perhaps my message was unclear. I agree, the capex might not have 'changed'. I just want to understand where the money is going and to know the complete picture re: capex. It's attractive that the company is net-cash, but we need to know how much of it is committed to capex and what the future plans are re: sales of some facilities. Maybe this info is already available?

"A Broker with only a handful of options clients can make a wonderful living"

PETER LYNCH

In my experience of working in the options industry (several decades), small-time options buyers are considered complete muppets. The statistics on the number of winners is even more grim than that with spread betting. But losers rarely talk about their losses, thus guaranteeing there will be more muppets just like them, wanting to get rich quick! In desperation, many of them jump onto the BBs, somehow thinking they can move the market, but that is the very sign of a muppet! No serious options participant is wasting his time on these BBs.

"To buy when others are despondently selling and to sell when others are greedily buying, requires the greatest fortitude and pays the greatest reward."

SIR JOHN TEMPLETON

===========================================

"Looks like these junk uk listed financials heading back to covid lows…or worse….uk economy absolutely fxcked."

"Looks like this dogshxt share making another run towards the .60’s."

"Jesus these are getting destroyed even worse than the rest of the stuff on the dog index of the world ftse 100."

"This garbage in terminal decline, like brexit basket case U.K. in general. Does anyone actually buy U.K. shares anymore."

"A mystery how this dogshxt is still above .70, would think the usual Sep/Oct melt down should fxck it up properly down to where it needs to be….sub .66 ( yes I’m shorting it with July 2024 puts )"

...all the rest of the posts are similar. None are constructive. The comment in the last is the obvious bit.

Porsche1946

===========================================

After reading today's research from Shore Capital, they mention a net cash position of £75m as at 30 Sep. In their previous article (dated 6 Sep 2023), the cash position (effective as at 30 Jun 2023) seemed to be £99m. Unfortunately I cannot see how the capex requirement has changed during that 3m interval, but I am interested in knowing where the £24m has been spent... Annual divi cost looks like ~£36m.

Yes, but they tend to place well thought out positions... they're not pure gamblers like the typical shorter on these channels, hence my interest in their thesis.

Anybody able to add some color on Marshall Wace's recent short position?

@Porsche1946: What has Barclays got to do with Phoenix?

Have you thought about sharing your views via a YouTube channel? You could style it on the Victor Meldrew character!

The prospects for Phoenix, L&G etc are booming at the moment, with record business volumes - you have no idea what you're talking about. That's why foreign firms are likely to take over one or more of the UK firms.

@Agricore: you're obsessed about tiny details and miss the big picture.

The FACT is that the vast majority of REITs in the US and UK are dropping at the moment. I agree that most US REITs and especially mortgage REITs are more highly geared than UK ones. But that's a different story. For a UK REIT, RGL is highly geared and investors (Mr Market) is concerned that the leverage is too high and that has hit the share price - that's the reason why the share price was 94p at the beginning on 2022 but is now just 28p. Whether or not that price fall is justified, I'll leave for you to decide.

Since the last update, I'm not convinced that the market believes in the turnaround story from Mr Ingliss. Nor do I believe it yet. I migh change my opinion based on the next update. I had spent a few days looking at the retail bonds as well, but I think they are overpriced, given that they are secured against *nothing* and are unrated by any credit agency - meaning they are an unrated junk... the payoff is totally asymmetrical with a limited upside and 100% loss on the downside. I'll pass on those as well as on the common shares at the moment.

Good luck.

I've spent some time ploughing through the financials here and it seems very 'cheap' for such a company - but what is the attraction?

Management boast how well the company is doing, but unless you're an expert at IFRS accounting for insurance companies, it's impossible to untangle the story:

- The divi is unattractive

- The share price has done nothing but decline in a decade

- I can't find any broker research; ResearchTree has nothing at all

- It looks like a zombie/neglected company

On the other hand, if there is any truth to the recent outlook/performance spouted by management, it seems there is an opportunity here for the brave, if there's any virtue at all in the ultra-low p/e.

@Toff: regarding the performance of the FTSE - I agree. It's been shocking. I am not in any way trying to justify having everything invested in UK stocks. Nor am I suggesting that I would allocate anything but a small position to PHNX or any other single stock.

I would immediately dump PHNX or any other stock if the story changed for the negative. But I don't yet see any change in the story. What I see is a bear market and many of PHNXs peers doing equally badly in their share price. The underlying story at PHNX looks solid - *assuming that we can believe what management tell us*.

Some of the (glaringly obvious) short-sellers (@Porsche etc), try and convince others that it's easy to make money day-trading/shorting etc., but none of the evidence backs up their story. My guess is that 80-90% of them are gradually (or quickly) draining their accounts.

Regarding 'paying big dividends' - you're totally out of touch. I could name you 50 stocks in the US that pay larger dividends than PHNX. The large dividend is shared by most companies in the sector, because of share price declines. While you and @Porchy are constantly singing the praises of US stocks as though most have been rising, which is nonsense. Only a small set of US stocks have been rising, which have dragged up the index.

(life insurers)

@Toff - please share your gbreat wisdom about the stocks you've invested in that have done so well over the past year... Please name one of the pife insurers, from the UK, US or Europe with a different share price action. My guess is you can't you'#re just a small-time shorter talking his own book. FYI: negative commentary here will have zero effect on the share price.

@SilverKnight: "This is turning from a long term investment into a marathon investment. Dividends can't keep up with sp depreciation."

Yes, that is true. It's depressing. Which stocks/funds do you know of that are consistently rising atm? I'm not aware of any, but I'm all ears... For those of us that choose to continue holding, I think it's going to be a matter of holding for a long time and hopefully collecting the juicy dividends. I guess we're screwed if the dividends stop coming, but I don't see any evidence of that happening at the moment. In my portfolio (over 100 assets) the dividends are very consistent and I'm not yet seeing many cuts. I don't see any evidence of the PHNX divi being immently cut. If anything, I'm inclined to think that it's more likely to be increased, but all investing is just a punt.

Could PHNX drop to 400p - yes, absolutely, I think that's possible. Do I think it will? - I have no idea. But being a long-term investor, I'll continue holding as long as the fundamentals are solid and will potentially look to add more once the freefall has stopped. In the meantime, I'm picking up 10% a year which is very nice thank you!

I see nothing whatsoever that is specific to PHNX. All life insurers that I follow, including the US and European ones are falling along with PHNX.

@Porchy: "dividend will be cut or suspended"

Where's the proof mate? answer - there is none. He's just made it up. The guy doesn't deal in facts, just scare mongering. People who make up stories in order to profit off others are scum.

For example, the Dutch company Aegon listed on NYSE has superb metrics in Seeking Alpha and has falled about the same as Phoenix today and is also now in a downtrend. @Porsche is cluess and is spouting nonsense in the hope to make a tenner off his spreadbet.

FYI: what @Porsche says is nonsense; the guy has zero idea. Share price does not equal dividends. The guy is clueless.

From what I see, almost everything is dropping. Most life insurers/large asset managers/general insurers have dropped today and are also in a downtrend like PHNX.

FSG: -3.8%

PMI: -3.6%

JUST: -3.5%

PRU: -3.3%

AIG: -2.8%

MET: -2.7%

ADM: -2.6%

AEG: -2.4%

MNG: -2.1%

LGEN: -2%

AV.: -2%

PHNX: -2%

ABDN: -1.7%

OMU: -1.7%

DLG: -1.1%

@Agricore: In the US, I cannot think of a single REIT whose share price is doing well. It's a sea of red almost every day. The worst performing area is commercial/offices. Some of the big US reits are spinning off their office holdings altogether (e.g. WP Carey).

M&G announced yesterday that it's liquidating its commercial property fund. I suspect that many will go that way.

You say that AIRE is stable? It has moved from from 84p to 56 in a few months - that's a 33% drop.

In the UK, reits, infrastructure and renewables (anything that remotely resembles a bond) have been utterly smashed. Even the best run funds with low leverage have been impacted.

I agree that NAVs have not moved as much. The same is true for solar funds (e.g. NESF, FSFL). They've declined even though they have covered divis and solid balance sheets. It's simply that investors are leaving. But that is enough...

FYI: I'm not negative on reits, infrastructure or renewables. Prices always under/over shoot the NAV. There is the opportunity! I think some caution needs to be applied to RGL though due to the excessive leverage. I am liking the RGL Retail bond after the recent drop, though have not pulled the trigger yet.

Anyway - good luck!