Member Info for CaneToad

FYI: regarding " I'm not seeing this "generational 'sea-change'" to the extent you're reading about."

Everbody I talk to tells me that they now work from home a lot of the time. I know people in conservative industries who now work at home 100% of the time, apart from a once a month trip into the office. That would have been unheard of before. It's not any more...

@Agricore: One thing that took me a very long time to understand and accept, is that it's not just my own opinion that's important when investing. The problem is that all reits (UK/US) are being smashed, so it's perhaps wise to sit and watch from the sideline while prices are in freefall and buy when there's a change in the trend, rather than try and be too smart and try and predict when interest rates/the market will turn. I'm nowhere near smart enough for that and indeed, I don't think the governor of the BoE or the Fed are either...

I think the answer here is dilution - the company has been addings lots more shares during this time. I can understand why the private credit business is doing well atm, but not private equity/asset management. I don't trust the valuations on those businesses and will pass on any investment until it becomes clear. I don't see any compelling investment here, that's not already achievable (at higher/more consistent yield/better quality) in the US market. And one thing for sure is that nobody else here understands POLN.

Why is it that the dividend has been dropping steadily since ? e.g. the Liberum forecast is:

DPS (p) 2017: 84.5, 2018: 80, 2019: 80, 2020: 80, 2021: 80, 2022: 72, 2023: 64, 2024: 50.8

I can appreciate that the recent drop is due to the increased tax after changing from an investment trust to ordinary company? but it's been dropping for years... where's the benefit? why is this attractive to an income investor?

What if the market is pricing in larger falls in asset values due to *much* higher interest rates?

From what I'm reading, offices in the US and UK are experiencing a generational 'sea-change', with even local councils allowing staff to work at home most of the time, resulting in huge office vacanacies and collapsing asset prices. If true, perhaps the market will not bounce back quickly like many here are assuming?

It's not going to surprise me if the (10y) interest rate hits 6% in the US; it might cross 5% within days and UK rates are also rising rapidly again - I wonder if that could lead to a much bigger drop in UK real-estate values than we've seen so far.

On the other hand, I do agree that there is potentially some value here and I'm weighing a position.

Indeed - the fall is a bit of a mystery, but GSF, NESF, SEIT etc are also down heavily.

My guess is that it's due to today's rapid rise in the US/UK 10y bond yields.

"the NAV then it will be a 9.75/2391*100 = 0.4% reduction"

Be that as it may: but why cancel the dividend and why make a statement that future dividend payments will require approval of the lenders if it is indeed going to be just a 0.4% of the NAV? Something does not add up here.

To be perfectly honest, I did not fully understand the RNS, nor do I understand how it could impact future earnings. It seemed weird that a miscalculation of this magnitude could be made and even less clear how it will impact future dividends. The fact that the lenders will have to *approve* future divis was enough for me. I primarily held this as a diversifier for the rest of my portfolio, but without any divi it does not stack up.

I might consider rebuying after some clarity on the future divis, but for now, it's too much of a gamble.

Current divi cut; future divis in danger/need approval. Not good. This could tank.

@Porsche: FYI: THese companies buy Giltys to match long-term liabilities (as required by law). There's no need (or sense) to mark those to market as they are never sold early. Do you have ny idea at all how life insurance works?

@Porsche:

90% of 'technical' traders lose money - my guess is that you also lose money, but on the other hand, you're bloody persistent, so maybe you break-even! Who TF is Frasier Crane? Never heard of him...I don't care anyway.

I think it's fairly obvious not to buy a falling knife, so I'll sit back and wait until this has bottomed and add more at some point if it's still solid, which I have no reason to think it won't be. Keep it coming!

According to the broker (Shore Capital/17 July 2023), the divi is not covered, but will be within 12-18m. Cover was supposedly 0.9x with 25% of the portfolio being operational.

Guys, you can just ignore @Porchy1846, it's the same old rant every time. Look at his history... he has no credibility.

Crikey, I was 30% up on this and took my eye off the ball, now at break-even. Somebody dumping them!

@Lurka: "This share is a disaster, i bought around 110 after Times write up and it is hard to see how capital has been destroyed so much"

This is unfortunately the case for just about all infrastructure / renewables funds over the past 12m. Look at NESF, FSFL, HICL, JLEN,... It's a reflection of the high interest rates. Indeed, I can't think of any companies that have avoided the decline - but I'm happy to hear any any!

@Toff - everything you've said in your latest post is nonsense... The fact is that UK Equities as a whole have been in outflow for a long time.

The decline in PHNX which started around 10 March 2023 is mirrored by LGEN, AV. and the rest of the sector. It's not specific to PHNX as you claim.

The entire market is dropping. Lots of US shares have dropped 10% in the past week; you'll get a completely skewed picture by just looking at SPX. Unless you have a short position, I can't understand why you'd bother to hang around here.

"I am interested in your reasons for predicting a dividend cut."

@Toff has no reason other than that's what he wants in order to make a few quid off his spread-bet... He doesn't deal in facts. Nothing he's said is a fact - it's just bs that he's made up. He has no idea about the company.

Same goes for @Porsche. Nobody takes that guy seriously either. I don't mind listening to genuine arguments for short-selling a share and some of the short-sellers have done solid research, but these guys are not credible. @Porsche is obsessed with Brexit, the FTSE, UK economy yadda yadda - as if anybody cares... It's been interesting have the guy unfilterted for a few days to realise what a delusional muppet the guy is. My guess is he might not even have any positions in anything - he's just a lonely *muppet* who hangs around, with nothing better to do. What a muppet!

"the share price doesn't lie"

Of course it does - that's one of the main ways you make money in the stock market... the lower the better. As long as the fundamentals have not changed, I could not care less if the share price drops to 100p tomorrow morning!

It's nothing like Persimmon...

House Builders have suffered because the properties they sell have dropped in value, interest in new properties has fallen significantly and the cost of building new houses has increased significantly with inflation. PHNX had a comparitively good year; the killer was the drop in asset values backing the annuities they sell, but they do not need to be liquidated/sold, unlike the properties that PSN had built...

Anyway, I'm not standing forward as the guy to support the PSN share price; I do not care... I have a small holding and will choose to buy more if it drops significantly, assuming that the fundamentals have not changed. Currently, I don't see any change - it's just that the entire market is now on a downtrend and I'm not buying anything anyway. It's always a laugh to see the comments on these boards.

- Investment-grade credit rating

- Plenty of cash on hand

- UK’s biggest savings/retirement company (£270b under management/recently increasing)

- Long history of steady divi increases

- Some small-time muppets on bbs (e.g. Porsche1946) think they can move the share price!

- The entire market is down

- 90% of short-term traders/spread betters/shorters lose money

- Divi yield is 11%