Member Info for CaneToad

@DenFos: "SP imploding, scam company being exposed. This will soon be bankrupt and shareholders wiped out. The price action says it all. And a ridiculous amount of debt. AVOID."

Please keep to FACTS. You are breaking the law by spreading stories for which you have NO PROOF. I'll be happy to refer your posts to DEC for legal action if you repeat them.

In regard to AML - I think you're cheating a bit there and might be being economical with the truth! Actually, that was one of my best trades ever. It had another great run recently, from 100p to 400p. You seem to be obsessed with pushing US shares as if nobody else here owns them? Why is that? Anyway, I have no interest in your claimed successes. My only interest is in FACTUAL comments about PHNX. I'll wait and se if any appear and filter you (like I did before) otherwise.

@Porsche1946: I thought you'd appear. Like a fly to dog turd. You're one of the few people on this board who delights at other people's misfortune. I don't mind short-sellers and I occasionally short-sell shares myself. the difference between us is that I do not inhablit boards spreading bile when I am on the short side.

Just so you're not disappointed: My exposure here is tiny (about 1%). Out of that, I am ~15% down, i.e. the effect on my portfolio is just 15bp... If you look at the overall market, all of the life insurers are down as is the entire market... I don't yet see any unexpected moves in PHNX. Almost every stock in the UK, US and global markets are down.

In my experience, brokers just follow the price up/down. If they were so good at 'predicting' anything they'd leave their employer and start trading on their own account. But they don't, because most would end up underperforming an index or going bust entirely.

Apart from the 3x cover of the divi, they have ample cash on hand. Here is an excerpt taken from page 8 of the most recent results:

"Group closing cash balance: The Group seeks to hold a minimum cash buffer of around £300-400 million, which is sufficient to cover 6 months of costs and dividends. The Group’s closing cash balance of £696 million means that we have surplus cash available."

The fact is that just about every Life Insurance company in the world currently has the same problem as Phoenix, which is that the government bonds they hold to back the liabilities of their policies have declined in value. I don't see a problem. There is only a problem if those bonds need to be liquidated - which they do NOT. That is why Life Insurance companies have different accounting rules than other companies...

FYI: Phoenix had no involvement with the LDI debacle.

What would @Porsche1946 have them do instead? What asset would be held that could match the liabilities, but which would not decline in value when interest rates rise? There is none! He's just spouting off nonsense in the hope that some weak holders sell their shares and make him a profit. Pathetic...

Anybody here is free to listen to Porsche1946 (an active short seller and doom monger who talks his book) and sell their shares.

I'll look at the facts:

*) A+ Credit Rating from Fitch (affirmed March 2023).

*) Recent coments from FT article (29 Sep 2023): "... the half saw the balance sheet increase its positive levels of cash generation with £885mn of new business cash rolling in, more than double the total at this point last year, which comfortably covers the dividend by three times..... Berenberg makes the point that the key for Phoenix is its A+ credit rating from Fitch that allows the company to borrow at reasonable rates. Management has options over whether to deleverage or continue buying..."

*) Recent financial results

I hold PHNX in modest size within a diverse portfolio. I am here for the divi and one that is covered 3 times does not seem risky to me! I'll sit back and wait for the dust to settle and for the general market downdraft to slow and will then consider adding more if the story has not changed!

Indeed - interesting, though the article is a bit old.

@Mkx007: "...plus an opportunity to view the new Stony site which is energised."

So Stony is now live? If so, perhaps it would have been worthwhile to communicate via an RNS........

This is starting to look attractive to me, but the things that strike me are:

(1) What is the occupancy rate - how much unrented space do they have?

(2) The lack of dividend coverage (third year in a row that Adjusted EPS is below DPS)

LTV looks solid, but having three years in a row without dividend coverage is poor; it portends a dividend cut. A cut in the dividend will hit the share price, so I think I'll wait and see how it unfolds.

Any news about GSF’s Stony asset, near Milton Keynes, which was meant to have energisation by end September or Ferrymuir, Scotland, due end-November? Entire market is down, but people will fret if there' no news, because the story here requires progress on the pipeline or else the divi is woefully uncovered.

"Chapter 11 coming our way soon."

C'mon - that's a bit far-fetched... there is no way that the banking syndicate would have extended the terms if there was even a whiff of that. Conclusion: it's basically nonsense...

"They should cut the dividend though as every time"

I suspect that the sp will be smashed if the divi is cut. Most people only hold DEC for the divi and they will immediately sell if it's significantly cut. Many funds (e.g. CQS New City High Yield Fund) have significant positions in DEC and will offload them and collapse the share price if the divi is cut...

It's easy to get depressed here, but all renewable shares are being smashed. There was an article about it in today's FT:

"Renewable energy stocks hit hard by higher interest rates":

https://www.ft.com/content/07443afb-b935-492d-8711-8c47e4353c59

I'm not optimistic about Wind, but I still see value in GSF. Unless I'm looking through rose-tinted glasses, this still looks attractive. That said, investors have become highly suspicious of shares that are not covering their dividend, e.g. DGI9.......

I don't see anything new and/or concerning in the update, apart from fair value adjustments. It looks like an attractive, covered yield.

Criminal proceedings? Good luck! Have you ever dealt with the FCA? They are one of the most hopeless organisations you will ever encounter. Apart from an automatic email response, you'll never hear back from them. The only way that anything happens is if you hire your own lawyer and fight it. Warning: the lawyer will tell you you've got a 'really good chance', but in the meantime he'll literally suck your wallet dry like a mosquito/leach. Such is the UK stock market!

Sadly, it is commonplace for directors to issue rubbish like this. I learned to ignore it after being fleeced many time in this way. You really cannot believe this type of nonsense statement. I looked hard at this one again a few days ago and decided to look at reality and the current dividend coverage rather than promises of management.

It seems that accounting figures are now a total joke under IFRS and that you can tell any story you want - great or terrible, depending on which accounting standard you use.

Reuters: "UK insurer Phoenix half-year profit rises on steady bulk annuity demand"

Market Watch: "Phoenix Group Holdings PLC 1H Loss/Shr 27.1p"

Investors have no idea what is actually going on.

More writedowns; clearly the lending standards were poor and the 'asset-backing' was putty rather than hard assets. 'Executives' at GABI need to go back to school and learn something about how to write an asset-backed loan. They seem to be clueless about it.

Net debt=£390m, mkt cap=£150m, revenue=£60m. I cannot see how the debt will ever be substantially reduced without selling most of the portfolio and a large equity raise. The best outcome would perhaps be an offer from another REIT, but I doubt many will touch it given the level of debt here; more likely is an offer that will wind it down and there could (maybe) be an attractive trade for the brave. It's a falling knife for now though and I'm standing back.