Member Info for Candid

Why do most posters on here keep making valuations based on ‘GGP’s 30% of Havieron’, it will be a long long time before Newcrest earn in 70%, perhaps 2 years or more. If we get a potential offer later this year or early next year, it’s highly likely that GGP will still hold 60% of Havieron. We’re only on stage 2 of the earn-in and it will only move to stage 3 after NCM complete a Pre Feasibility Study:

Stage 1: Newcrest incurs US$10 million in expenditure (inclusive of the Minimum Commitment of US$5 million) in relation to the Tenement Blocks (the “Stage 1 Commitment”) within a period of 12 months;
Stage 2: If Newcrest incurs an additional US$10 million in expenditure in relation to the Tenement Blocks (the “Stage 2 Commitment”) within a period of 12 months from the date following satisfaction of the Stage 1 Commitment, Newcrest will earn a 40% Farm-in interest;
Stage 3: If Newcrest incurs an additional US$25 million in expenditure in relation to the Tenement Blocks and delivers a Pre-Feasibility Study for a project on the Tenement Blocks (the “Stage 3 Commitment”) within a period of 24 months from the date following satisfaction of the Stage 2 Commitment, Newcrest will earn an additional 20% Farm-in Interest (cumulative 60% Farm-in interest);
Stage 4: If Newcrest completes and delivers, or incurs no less than US$20 million in expenditure toward the carrying out of, a Feasibility Study for a project on the Tenement Blocks (the “Stage 4 Commitment”) within a period of 24 months from the date following satisfaction of the Stage 3 Commitment, Newcrest will earn an additional 10% Farm-in Interest (cumulative 70% Farm-in interest).

It’s inevitable that a capital raise is coming, it’s been more than a rumour for a few weeks now

Another great set of drilling results, they just keep coming.Talk of an opportunistic takeover at this stage is perhaps a bit premature, I think GH will wait for the MRE before he’s open to discussions.If I’m not wrong Newcrest own only 40% of Havieron at this stage and GGP own 60%.

What are thoughts on the next step in discussion with regulators? Richard said he will be talking with regulators on the next steps ASAP.
There is a realistic chance that SNG will be asked by the FDA to file for an EUA (Emergency Use Authorization) immediately as they will look at this trial and previous trials of SNG001 and deem it as relatively safe where the benefits exceed the risks, this is what the EUA framework is for.
There are only 2 other drugs that have been given EUA status so far, one of which is remdesivir, which is not yet an approved drug but an investigational drug:
“In the United States, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has authorized the emergency use of remdesivir to treat hospitalized adult and pediatric patients with suspected or laboratory confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe COVID-19. The FDA’s Emergency Use Authorization will enable appropriate patients more ready access to remdesivir at this time, due to the public health emergency. Remdesivir has not been approved by the FDA for any use, and the safety and efficacy of remdesivir for the treatment of COVID-19 are not yet established”

I think SNG001 has a good case for an EUA, and they shouldn’t have to wait for a pivotal trial to be completed before they apply for it.

A lot of volatility, 29m shares traded on Madrid Bolsa and dropped back to +34%

No news announced as far as I can see, but on Madrid Bolsa it’s up 60% on 11m volume in a very short time. We’ve seen this before a few weeks ago.
Follow the money?

BGF are selling their existing GDR shares most likely because they plan to convert the existing £2.5m loan note into new shares.
Their selling is a likely contributor to the recent share price weakness.

Business Growth Fund (BGF)
The Company entered into an agreement with the BGF that became effective on the 10 December 2018.
· £2.5m loan that matures on 30 June 2025
· The loan converts at 28.75p
· The loan came conditional with a £1m subscription to the December 2018 fund raising process

The share price will likely be choppy in the near term but the upcoming catalysts will have further material impacts on the valuation:
1) further analysis of data and publication of results for peer review
2) outcome of FDA and EMA discussions on the way forward for SNG001
3) Release of COPD trial results in August (very significant uplift in valuation on successful results)
4) Progress on the home-based trial
5) Announcement of a Partnership with a major Pharma for the next phase
6) Provision of a financial grant from a Government body for accelerating work

Revive’s Bucillamine is not a new drug, it’s been around for 30 years, it’s effectively an
anti-inflammatory drug that is thought to help with lung inflammation, so not a Covid cure as such but a drug that reduces the symptoms.
“by repurposing its long-established, rheumatoid arthritis treatment Bucillamine as a possible treatment for infected patients suffering from inflammation in their lungs”

Revive’s drug still a long way to go, they plan to do a phase 3 trial in Q3, so can’t be imminent.
“In late June, Revive submitted its Investigational New Drug (IND) application package for the FDA to launch a Phase 3 confirmatory clinical trial to evaluate Bucillamine in the treatment of patients with mild-to-moderate COVID-19. The FDA has asked Revive to submit the IND based on its Phase 2 study of Bucillamine as an anti-inflammatory treatment for gout.
If approved, the study is slated to begin in the third quarter of 2020”

transaction was yesterday 20th July

Great new investor, this is a big active Fund with £15bn assets under management.
They have a Global Healthcare fund and they obviously see value here.

this one is not followed much at all, but directors have all been buying during April, May and June

could these talks with FDA and EME be about an emergency use approval?
Would they still need the pivotal trial and regulatory approval to commercialise or could this be done in tandem with an emergency use approval?

easier to look on the share prophets website as this site blocks their links

share prophets

Not often you see the team at ************* eating humble pie, but they are actually apologising for not tipping SNG earlier, typical..
https://www.*************.com/views/50155/synairgen-why-i-bought-continue-to-hold-and-an-apology

Big pharma money will pour into this. Amazing that SNG have kept this at 100% ownership rights to date.
Another possibility is a grant from UK or EU to fund the further work

This journalist has got his pounds and pence mixed up on the shareprice but rest is accurate:

https://www.fxstreet.com/news/sng-stock-price-synairgen-plc-completes-six-fold-leap-in-two-days-as-ceo-says-things-are-moving-very-quickly-202007210850

The COPD trial results next month can easily propel SNG into a completely new valuation.

“COPD was cited as the third leading cause of death in the world by the World Health Organisation, with approximately 328 million people worldwide classified as suffering from it.”