Member Info for CanaryDwarf

The ETF managers are now having to buy BTC on exchanges to mange their inflows. BTC available to buy on OTC isn’t enough.

The impact is obvious..

The word on the street is that the SEC could approve the spot BTC ETFs either today, or tomorrow, with actual fund launches on the 10th Jan. This aligns with the previous BTC futures approval process. Exciting times :)

One of the reasons ARB will do well as Bitcoin continues its bull run, is the way investors view ARB as tax free exposure to BTC. (Via ISA, pension etc.)

As more retail investors join the crypto bull run, more will see ARB as a better way to gain BTC exposure than a direct holding liable to CGT. Same thing happened during the last bull run. Traditional valuation models do take a back seat during this time. Remember.. earrings are based upon future BTC prices. Enjoy the ride :)

Great start to a 2024! Spot etf approvals coming soon?

Looking at the chart, we have some overhead resistance at the $46k level and then very little until the $61k level.

If the Reuters report is true, we get the sec decision on Tuesday or Wednesday. Big week ahead.

On Dec. 14, crypto investment fund Bitwise predicted that spot Bitcoin ETFs would be the most successful ETF product ever launched, expecting them to capture some $72 billion in assets under management within the next five years

Bitcoin option max pain is 43250. I’m surprised Bitcoin isn’t trading higher right now. Expiry day games :)

I agree, the impact of institutional adoption is an unknown. One thing for sure is that this Bitcoin cycle, which started back in December 2022, is exactly matching the previous cycles. So just aligning with previous cycles and assuming a 10x from previous cycle (diminishing returns theory I.e previous cycle was 20x and 40x before that etc.) highs we get to $150k in 2025.

I personally think we could get to this level a little earlier than other cycles and possibly head toward $200k due to the impact of adoption.. we will have to wait and see :)

Chuz, what’s your prediction for the Bitcoin high for this bull cycle (up to and including end of 2025)

I can’t see the approval of the Bitcoin ETFs having a negative impact of the price of Bitcoin. Of course, other factors during the next few weeks and months might have a negative impact, but I don’t believe the approvals on their own will.

Not financial advice, but what I’m expecting is an initial spike up to the 48k-50k level, followed by some sell off. Once the ETFs launch, all going to plan, will probably be in February. Once launched the managers will have to buy Bitcoin to cover investors applications/ investment which could be significant.

We have the Fed cutting rates in March, followed by the halving in April. I personally would be surprised to see Bitcoin below the prior cycle highs in May. Clearly future market predictions for the Bitcoin price going into the bull run are driving miner valuations. I do expect more to come.. DYOR :)

That was a tongue in cheek comment/ question .. :)

I only follow my own advice. I have over 30 years experience in trading, including many years spent trading professionally for inv banks.

Please DYOR :)

Holiday season coming to an end. I would think that Bitcoin will now resume its pre holiday season upward trend. ETF approvals could come at anytime between now and the 10th causing a decent spike. I wouldn’t choose to be short at the moment in this environment.. DYOR

Nice move again

Bitcoin now breaking higher at 43,550+

DXY index (USD), 5 month low now below 101

US 10 year yield, 5 month lows at 3.78%

90% + probability of at least a 25bps Fed rate cut at the March 20th meeting.

Sooo bullish right now :)

Thanks Hexam. I appreciate your insight.

I just read that:

MicroStrategy has acquired an additional 14,620 BTC for ~$615.7 million at an average price of $42,110 per BTC.

Feels like we’re about to enter some very exciting times

Thank you. Just curious on your recommendation based upon your research (of course not financial advice)

At the current price of 24.5/25.5, is your recommendation to buy, hold, sell, or short? I’m not trying to catch you out, just curious. Thx.

Shouldn’t the valuation be based upon future earrings? If so, I guess the market is now projecting the future price of BTC based upon previous cycles. Based upon previous cycles we are now have roughly two more years left of this current bull market, with the biggest moves projected to happen during crypto autumn, towards the end of 2025.

Typical holiday season market with a small counter trend move by BTC. In my opinion, the next move will be big and in the right direction :)

There is a slim chance that the sec might try and push the approvals into March.. probably less than 10%. So looking very good right now. Equity market started to price in the first fed cut as soon as March now, wit a 75% probability of at least a 25bps cut in March 20th. Macro picture looks great etc.

Avax has a $16b mkt cap, so you can buy it on just about any centralised exchange. I don’t trade frequently, preferring to buy and hold, so I just use Coinbase and transfer to a wallet.

Absolutely! The last few weeks have been amazing in crypto, ever since the market rightly predicted the incoming Fed pivot back in October, which triggered the fall in US bond yields.

Almost spoilt for choice right now in terms of crypto projects to make money from :) I can see 10x from a lot of large caps right up to 100X from the smaller lesser well know projects between now and the end of 2025. Ai, gamefi, layer ones like avax and sol are interesting, as well as some of the Dex platforms.

I see BTC moving to $150k, but I would be surprised to see $250k during this cycle due to the huge impact from the institutional adoption of blockchain tech in general.

By the way, where do I find the video/ article you mentioned in your post? Thx