Member Info for CanaryDwarf

Thanks. I do have a position in ARB which I’ll keep until this current bull run completes. I used to much more focused on the equity market until I discovered crypto. I now almost completely devote my investment research on the crypto market. The potential returns are way more than I could get just holding equities. During the last bull market I managed to get a 2000x return on my initial crypto investment. The only downside is you can’t keep direct crypto holdings in a tax wrapper :)

Assuming a repeat of historical BTC cycles, the BTC price will hit its ATH (69k) two months after the halving.

However, I would argue that this cycle may be different if we factor in the demand shock associated with the sec approval of the BTC ETFs, which will happen in Q1. So we may see some kind of left translated cycle I.e higher prices earlier in the cycle. This will probably drive investors enthusiasm for miners and spike the sp of ARB much higher.

If BTC hits $150k within 2 years, I would have thought ARB would do more than a 4x from current levels :)

Thanks. So if we keep it simple and assume the o.5% percentage of total BTC mined by ARB remains the same going into 2024 post halving , then ARB will be mining about 70BTC per month?

At current BTC price that is about $3m revenue per month ( Plus other revenue from other sources of income)

Forecasting future revenue obviously needs some prediction of the future BTC price. Historically, predicting the BTC high low price and timing of the high and low price, based upon the four year cycle and diminishing returns theory, has been surprisingly accurate.

So, we are now about to start year two of a three year BTC bull cycle that started back in December 2022. Diminishing returns theory suggests the BTC price will 10x from the prior cycle low during this cycle. I.e about $150,000 at the height of the bull maker in late 2025.

Assuming a price of $150,000 means ARB monthly revenue will be about $10.5m. That to me would mean the ARB price could do very very well indeed.

Obviously a very simple view but just putting thoughts out there…

Does anyone know on average what percentage of BTC does ARB mine over a given period e.g over a month. Thx

The halving will be in April. Clearly the biggest event between now and then is the spot BTC etf approvals which will hopefully happen on January 10th. Another major event to happen os monetary easing from the Fed is likely to start in May. Lots happening. Historically the start of monetary policy asking hasn’t always been a positive event for BTC… we will see.

The BTC 3 year bull cycle started back in Dec 2022 and is likely come to an end around December 2025.

What about the fact that miners will be able to mine only 50% of what they can mine now?

Curious to hear investors opinion how Aprils halving event will impact the share price of miners.. any thoughts?

Text book bull flag on BTC looks to be breaking out higher now? Short term target $38k in my opinion.

Seeding an ETF, in this context, refers to providing the initial funding required for its launch. Typically, a bank or broker-dealer purchases the creation units (in this case, Bitcoin) in exchange for ETF shares. These shares can then be traded on the open market on the ETF’s launch day. I guess the amount of BTC bought during seeding will depend upon the lot size (creation units) of the ARKA entity.

Ark Invest spot BTC ETF now listed on DTCC (ticker: ARKA).. I wonder if they will announce the start of their seeding process as well? Things about to get interesting

Absolutely! Expectations of an SEC approval before the close of 2023 have increased significantly. It could even be as early as this week.. depending upon news regarding the Grayscale conversion. No wonder institutional money pushed BTC to $35k yesterday. Short positions were rekt.

US 10 yr and USD continuing lower.. nice!

10p choice

Solid open

Will the SEC let Grayscale ETF convert later this week and open the floodgates for all other spot BTC ETF filings?

Will the SEC reach a settlement with Ripple on 9th November.

Both huge catalysts for BTC…

Today was a little taster of what an ‘explosive move’ feels like.. I can’t wait for next year :)

I would say that we could get an explosive move with BTC sometime in Q1 next year. Clearly there is a decent chance of significant demand and supply shocks pushing the price northwards. Supply shock: halving. Demand shocks: ETF approval and major institution buying, exponential growth in adoption across a wide range of industries. 2024 could well be a great year for BTC and crypto in general.

Craig Smith is certainly an interesting chap.... The key date for the SEC is 10th January. This is the final date for the Ark Invest approval. All the other ETF filings have final approval dates after this date.

SEC is not appealing the court decision on Greyscales spot BTC ETF…. Nice