Member Info for CanaryDwarf

US.bond yields double topped as expected hitting a weekly low today, hence the rally in the markets over the last few days. Let’s get the BTC ETFs approved and kickstart the crypto bull run

In the last couple of days the Fed have clearly changed their stance from last month regarding the need for further fed funds rate hikes. Expecting further dovish statements from the Fed later this week.. Futures market now pricing in a 90% chance of no hike at the Nov 1st meeting and more than 7”% chance that rates will remain the same by the Dev 13th meeting. No surprise to see US yields and dollar now coming off the boil. Looking out for the Fed minutes tomorrow and CPI on Thursday to drive volume and market direction. I’m personally bullish on BTC and expecting a break higher to 2023 highs within days. A Fed pause is now increasingly likely.

Thanks. Is the consensus that a higher Bitcoin price will lead to the reduction in debt and a much larger market cap as this new cycle unfolds? In other words, is the business now streamlined enough to be profitable as Bitcoin moves back to all time highs?

Clearly there is a possibility that the US dollar and bond yields have topped out.. for the time being. The market is increasingly pricing in a pause to us rate hikes , with less than a 35% probability of another hike by the Dec 13 Fed meeting. Another set of soft jobs and CPI data could sustain this rally. Of course, the SEC approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF will be huge…fingers crossed, looking likely in Q1.

What was the market cap of ARB during the last crypto bull run when Bitcoin traded above USD60k?

Anyone care to forecast the price and/ or market cap of ARB if Bitcoin hits USD100k in 12 months?

Why would shareholders vote against something that will provide funding for the business, when no other funding options are currently available? It also reduces the cost of running Bidstack by significantly reducing headcount and associated salaries.

We literally just broke through resistance of the primary trend line going back to Nov 2021 highs.. next stop around 24.5k

That’s the second major BTC short squeeze of 2023.. when everyone is expecting a technical dip the market has a tendency to spring a surprise.. great year so far!

The market is finally waking up to the possibility of a Fed pause this quarter.

Historically the market rally is triggered by the Fed pausing rate hikes. Cutting rates historically coincides with a drop in the markets. So, I’m expecting a very strong rally beginning this quarter and lasting most of 2023.

And I can not lie…. BTC needs to break 21,476 before the fun starts

This years BTC rally has been driven by the mother of all short squeezes. Over 133,000 BTC short traders were liquidated this year. So there’s been a fair amount of manipulation going on behind the scenes. The US CPI and jobs figures helped a little :). Overhead resistance to look out for is at 21,476. Next Fed meeting Feb 1st with a 25bps hike with hopefully some change of wording from Powell to indicate the rate hikes are coming to an end I.e just more more 25bps on Mar 22. But rates will remain around the 5% level for most of 2023. I personally think we will be a nice rally over the next few months once we get past next week and assuming the jobs market cools.

Interesting.. so even incorporating mining difficulty, there does appear to be a massive upside, assuming a decent recovering in BTC?

Thanks for your reply. How does this compare to when ARB traded at their all time high share price?

Just try to guesstimate the potential here when BTC takes off again.

Wondering if anyone can answer my question regards number of mining machines used by ARB.
Does ARB have more mining machines now compared to when their share price hit ATHs? Thanks

The US market is on holiday tomorrow. I think we could bump up to the 21,400 level over next couple of days. However, we’ll probably see bond yields spike as we move towards Thursdays handling of the debt ceiling by Congress. So BTC back to 18k towards the end of the week to form a higher low.

You mean back to to around 280pence per share?

The World Economic Forum starts on Monday in Davos. Expect lots of discussion around the adoption of crypto currency ;)

In my opinion, it wouldn’t surprise me to see BTC back up to around USD45k in 3 months. How would that translate to a ARB share price?