Member Info for c2645sg

Lenders are in charge Jack, all over the world.
Ask yourself why the company wanted 8-9% and ended up paying 10.5-15%.

It really doesn't really matter what the prospectus says.
It said guidance for the debt would be 8-9%, but the lenders demanded 10.5% and got it.
AML also stated guidance for 10.5% for the 2nd lien, and the lenders got 15%.

And if you think Stroll and all his cronies let someone else have control of bonds (first dibs on the company if it folds) and offered them make 15% interest every year, instead of themselves, then.... well.....

So we're back to square one, and my original statement: Stroll's target of 10,000 car sales and £500m EBITDA in 2025 doesn't even cover the interest charges on the bonds.

I have been honest all along Carpy, I am a shareholder who holds a core amount and trades on top of that.
There is no borrowable stock for AML, so only hedge funds and the big boys can short (and most of that is hedging their long positions imho).
I don't short any single stock, only indices/commodities where no-one gets hurt, except myself if it goes wrong ;)

.....and I just spotted your quote 2 paragraphs down fro mine, 2 different figures.
One seems to be generally for the future and one seems to be for this year in particular.
It's all guidance anyway, therefore it can change.

Wise words Carpy.
Polite discussion is the way forward, ignore/filter anyone who is only here to disrupt.

Here's a copy/paste from the recent RNS for Q1 figures:
"Outlook
The significant progress we are making to transform Aston Martin underpins our confidence in delivering our medium-term plans and targets. By 2024/25:
- c.10,000 wholesales, c.£2bn revenue and c.£500m adjusted EBITDA
- Annual capex and R&D £250m-£300m"

Carpy, please show us the math for the interest payments?
Guidance for CAPEX is £250-300m, pulled directly from the Q1 results, so I took £275m as the average.

@Richard:

I think the unit price on Valkyrie is £2.5 million and £750,000 for the Speedster. So that's £500 million before Q division get involved. Herr Moers talked about an open top Valkyrie, but read into that that the numbers would be on top of existing orders. Valhallah was positioned at £1 million with a run of 500 units.

88 speedsters x 750k = £66million
150 Valkyrie x £2.5m = £375 million
Valhalla (2024 at earliest, Herr Moers words) 500 x £1m = £500 million

Total £941m.
Profit margin of say 30% £282m.
Subtract deposits taken, and it only just covers one year’s bond interest.

@Ishi : your quote.
"The profit from each Valkyrie this year will be the money used to fund the bonds interest and CAPEX."

I cannot work out if you're short and coming out with nonsense so others do your deramping for you, or you're just a heady mixture of intellectual flatulence and morally vacuous..

Even with a ridiculous profit margin of 40%, turnover of £315 equates to £126m profit, and you can subtract all customers' deposits from that figure too.
So please let us all know how circa £100m in profit from the valkyrie is going to pay off £435m every year?
Thank you kindly.

You have to show your maths because you claimed something ridiculously untrue which amounts to barefaced lies just to ramp a share price up.
You got called on it, and you're spitting your dummy out the pram.
Don't have a go at me because you not making enough money on the market, have a look in the mirror for that.

That which can be asserted without evidence, can be dismissed without evidence

Valkyrie : 150 made at £2.1 million sale price = £315m TURNOVER.
Bond interest for 1 year is £160m + capex of £275million. = £435million.

Just wondering where you studied maths?

@Ishi, please show your maths for Valkyrie funding bond interest and capex.

Agreed, but that's the perfect example of inflation feeding inflation, companies raise the price of their product and it all snowballs from there.
Wait to see what happens when interest rates start rising!
Margin debt for stock trading at an all time high, that's why it pops so fast.

It's more about the rising prices of commodity/raw goods, transportation costs, and wages.
ie profit margin affected.

Inflation fears.
Unprofitable companies are hit the hardest.
https://www.ft.com/content/c6ec0695-a4be-4336-b64b-5b10614f8ae9

"Investors in companies that are not yet turning a profit are on shaky ground after a spectacular run. For everyone else, aside from those who truly believe the inflation pick-up will get out of hand, now is the time to brace for frequent tests of nerve."

@NoahsArk, what's your point re Zelon, Permian etc?

I guess all the FT article comments by finance folk are wrong too.

Make sure to read the comments too! ;)

I agree, Moers is the best man for the job here, couldn't think of anyone I would rather have. That was never in doubt.

My point is, even selling 10,000 cars per year is still not enough to pay the interest on the bonds never mind actually pay back the bonds in 2025.

If you were a bondholder getting 10.5 to 15% return, would you be happy negotiating lower returns when the company is still as risky at it was?
me neither.
IAG drew down a convertible bond today, £820 million @ 1.125%.
Not exactly a non-risk company.