Member Info for c2645sg

I agree, Moers is the best man for the job here, couldn't think of anyone I would rather have. That was never in doubt.

My point is, even selling 10,000 cars per year is still not enough to pay the interest on the bonds never mind actually pay back the bonds in 2025.

If you were a bondholder getting 10.5 to 15% return, would you be happy negotiating lower returns when the company is still as risky at it was?
me neither.
IAG drew down a convertible bond today, £820 million @ 1.125%.
Not exactly a non-risk company.

I just spotted this has been updated too.
I didn't write this article, but have a feeling he reads this BB ;)
https://karenable.com/aston-martin-q1-2021-results/

Agreed Jack, the line between objective and subjective is fine.
I don't really post forecasts, I far prefer to discuss facts, they are undeniable.
I think the SP is static for a good reason, the market doesn't know which way this will go either.
AML have to hit every target they made, no room for error, imho they've already started slipping with DBX sales.
If sales stay at current levels and Valkyrie is delayed, I think £16 is on the cards.
If DBX sales increase to circa 4000 per annum I think fair value is somewhere between £20 and £23.

Capex is £250-300 interest payments are £160 million per year.
So let’s go down the middle and say 275 + 160 = £435 Million in outgoings every year.

Stroll is aiming for c.10,000 wholesales, c.£2bn revenue and c.£500m adjusted EBITDA in 2025. Sounds good huh?
He needs to hit that to make a profit of £65million. (500 - 435) which only pays of HALF the interest on the bonds.
That’s if they don’t draw down MORE bonds. The more they draw, the more the reduce shareholder equity.
Can you see why I am frustrated now?
It’s beginning to feel a bit like a football team and rich owners. Talk loud, buy players win stuff then leave with the balance sheet wrecked.

Check out this link:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rRoS7VLw0P8
…and extrapolate with your own figures.

A company who have made a loss just about every year of their existence except 2017 when they inflated everything for the IPO can’t sustain debt of £1.3 billion, especially when he interest is so high.
So, we have a 3.3 years between now and 2025, and everything that happens in that space of time will be of huge importance.

So folk can smack me down for being a pessimist all they want.
I deal in facts, and preserve capital.

So Dunnie sold out, TinyPie can’t answer for himself, and Jack wants me to post more in a style of his choosing.
Your post can be boiled down to one word Jack, faith.
Delicious irony, if I was to suggest an hypothetical style for you to post in, you’d think it's incredibly patronising, and you’d be correct.

Stroll is one of those guys that either succeeds tremendously (Fashion) or fails miserably (Asprey and Garrard) by tapping in a nail with a sledgehammer.
He’s entitled and expects things just to work. Mercedes F1 show the exact opposite kind of regime: Toto has installed this team spirit that just wins out every time.
No wonder Stroll was upset with that Netflix doc making him look pretentious, because he is.

You need to know your numbers to gain an advantage in the markets, and hyperbole and bluster mean nothing.
Investing because you believe someone, has a 50% success rate, so good luck to all who invest based on that, you’ll need it.

Direct quote from the Q1 results:
"Improved cash position of £575m (December 2020: £489m) included £77m gross proceeds from new notes issued in March"

I think it's plain for anyone to see, that the reason the cash levels are where they are because of the bonds. The clue is in the fact that's it's one complete sentence in the results RNS.

Doyezee, so sorry for being repetitive, but patience is difficult when people who don't understand basic fundamentals, constantly challenge facts.
It's cool, you implicitly trust Stroll to turn this around without doing much homework. I prefer to do my homework and share it on here. Get over it.

Pupper:

"Really? The value of a share means nothing? So I can't use it as a metric to judge the perceived value of a company? Seems off. Anyway, it was just a "Ner ner; inB4 Stroll!" type brag really."

Is this a real, 100% serious question?
Please go and do some homework before yo invest any more cash anywhere on the market....
http://moneygrower.co.uk/lesson-7-a-stock-price-is-nothing-but-a-number/

Retail investors ploughed in their cash during lockdown, chasing share prices up, now they are returning to work, the tide is going out and we're seeing who is swimming naked.

Pupper:
You’re correct in one thing, you're no expert.
Their cash in Dec 2020 was £489m . They drew down £70m in bonds in Feb and now their cash level is £575m.
I have no idea how you find that so difficult to understand.
(The only reason they had £490m cash on the balance sheet is because they created £1.3 BLLION in bonds late last year at 12-15% interest)

So tell us your other metric then, valuation, balance sheet analysis you did then etc. Can’t wait to hear it...

Tiny, leaving a multiyear project 3/4 months before it's due to be released and you think it's a positive, you crack me up.
I notice Moers said he 'hoped' for Valkyrie delivery in September, that probably means January 2022

Haha Tiny Pie, his near death experience was 2008.
The chief engineer has left a project right before it's due to be launched and you are not worried.
Shows the level of confirmation bias on here.

Fluker: "People will quit Aston"
Like the head engineer of the Valkyrie and Valhalla project?
Why do you think he would leave 3 months before it's due to launch?

https://www.motorauthority.com/news/1132179_aston-martin-valkyrie-chief-engineer-to-join-canada-s-project-arrow-team?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Motorauthority2+%28Motorauthority+Master+Feed%29

Chief engineer of Valkyrie and Valhalla project leaves AML.

Fluker, DBX is made in St Athan and everything else is made at Gaydon.
Welsh staff are not happy because the workload has reduced so much, and reading between the lines they are worried that DBX moves to Gaydon too. I have no idea if that's possible though.

Maximum output for both factories combined is 14,000 units.
Straight from the CFO's mouth last year when asked if they need to look at that, as it's a serious drag on the balance sheet.
Same day Stroll said they wouldn't need to raise any more money.

Stroll might just have underestimated how costly this investment might be.

"Q1 year on year losses reduced from £112 million to £42 million"
And they added £70 Million debt at 10.5% interest. Nice cherry picking Doy.

F1, Another example of how chucking money at things does not guarantee success.

Doyezee, you seem to be defending the company taking out 10.5% interest bonds.
That’s cool, but I disagree.
It doesn’t help the old credit rating does it?
They raised more cash because they had to, and will running at a loss for the foreseeable.

The only reason they have £550m in cash is because they raised that money in the debt market. You speak as if they lowered net debt with income!
Sales up considerably? We’re comparing this year's Q1 to sales in a Covid year, the worst figures of most companies in recent memory.hardly difficult to beat.

Are you happy with 750 DBX sold worldwide?

Hey Pupper,

Cash balance of £575m I took from the Q1 statement, that’s up from circa £490m because they drew down £70m of new bonds.
I was warning about cash burn, because they burned through £500m of it in under 12 months. Hopefully Moers improves those figures, but that was in a year where furlough played an important part. Very soon the company will have a full wage bill and be consuming more cash again. Covid actually played into AML’s hand as it saw them through the restocking phase, they got the workforce paid for by the government at an opportune time.

3 shares for £1 means nothing. A share at 1p can hold much more value than one at £100., it’s not a metric you should ever use to calculate value imho.
I have praised the company when I feel it is due, you can check, But I detest misinformation and correct it whenever I see it, and take all the abuse going, without saying a negative bad word about anyone on here.
So the beauty of the BB is you get to read everything and pick and choose, the same as life in general.
It’s obvious to anyone reading who knows their stuff and who just blows hot air and abuse.

The last year?
Stroll saved AML from bankruptcy by creating bonds with ridiculous interest rates for himself and his mates. Drawing down more bonds in Feb 2021 means only one thing to me, they are gong to burn through a lot more cash in the near future and will need the £550m. (It makes the balance sheet look better as gross debt is over 1.3 billion!)
I don’t apologise for being honest or blunt, if someone gets easily offended at facts then they need to question whether they should be investing at all.
700 odd DBX sold worldwide in Q1 is not good enough for me, and a hybrid version is 2 years away, minimum. Other hybrid SUVs will take market share from AML imho.

Everyone should be wary of the Facebook page too. I remember Dunnieboy joining one and he got stalked, so don’t even look it up if you are unsure.

Make your mind up pup...
Either I make you think, or I am elusive and evasive?
Taking on expensive debt when you have over £550m cash in so insane that the only reasoning I could come up with is far-fetched to say the least. Now you're asking for a link to my facetious comment?
You realise companies can set up bond debt and then not draw on it?
We are shareholders, and when the company draws down needless debt at eye-watering levels I am annoyed!!!!

Evasive, elusive and repetitive when questioned on my position? Not much point in engaging with me then...
I've said all along, the next AGM we are all at, I'll happily show proof of over 4000 shares in my account, if that's what you mean.
You see, I am honest, and as a fairly large shareholder I question everything, and am open to discuss everything. Discussing the negatives stops one getting emotionally involved. Something most on here fail miserably at.

Have a good weekend.

Speak for yourself Nite, and I will do the same. I only have Robg on filter as he has never once uttered a single bit of information anyone could use for anything.

Thanks for posting at exactly the same time though. Hopefully everyone can dismiss the spurious claims that we are the same poster now, hahah.
Not much offends me, but that one almost did....

'Kind of' being "Required funding to meet the long-term objectives of the business."
when they have £550 million in the bank?
I should have known better than to entertain you after all.