RE: What's going on6 Apr 2022 15:36
If you had really been reading the BB Arnold, you would have heard me repeat this ad nauseum....
Stroll's target for 2025 is 10,000 sales, £2bn turnover and £500m EBITDA.
This means on £2bn of sales, AML company makes £500m before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortisation.
The current interest bill per annum is £171m, which will rise with inflation.
So Carpy can't say that figure will reduce, only an idiot would think interest rates are going to fall over the next 3 years.
Then you have to pay Tax on the profit.
D&A is currently £330m, so subtract these two figures (let's forget about Tax for now) from the EBITDA of 500m, and you are left with ZERO.
So basically, even if AML hit Stroll's huuuuuge target of 10,000 car sales, which is an INCREASE OF 67% from this year, they still don't make an actual profit.
Then you have stagflation and/or recession: Higher higher interest rates, raw materials costing more, supply chain issues, wages rising, and you can't raise selling prices because you are up against Merc, Bentley etc all owned by bigger companies who can withstand a recession for a year or two.
Then you have to roll over the debt of £1.3bn in 2025. Who would lend to AML with debt that high and unable to make a profit even with record sales of 10,000 cars?
The cash balance of £400m now will never last that long, especially if AML lose the court case, which I am 95% sure they will. That's £150m plus expenses (so let's say 175m), plus they currently burn through £125 per year, so it could be down to £100m in 12 months.
This cash balance is mostly deposits for Valkyrie and Valhalla, so when they deliver Valkyries, that cash isn't really cash any more. So there AML are cashless and non profit making company with huge debts to pay.
Moers was put here by Merc to make sure AML rely on Merc for parts, increasing their sales, and they get a free 20% of AML for the privilege. He killed off their own engines and now they 100% rely on Merc (and Coswrorth for the V12)
If anyone can chalenge any of these points they wouls, and make me look silly. But they can't.
All they can do is accuse me of being a Singaporean hedge fund manager who hates stroll and is short because I got burned at the IPO, who is no fun at parties, was abused as a kid and need to tend to my chickens or something.
Clueless emotional investors who will lose most of their money, (all of it if AML goes bankrupt.... again).
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