Member Info for c2645sg

Loading dealers and marking cars as sold to hit targets is not a good look.

https://karenable.com/aston-martins-fy-2022/
(comments section)

Ronald
9 Mar 2023 10:39am
Excellent analysis.
There is also something strange about AML’s inventories figure at Y/E. Inventories were £m 286.2 million up from £m 196.8 (YoY). On a Gross margin of 33% and an average selling price of £177k (or an average production cost of around £133k per sold vehicle), this is equivalent to 2,150 completed vehicles being held as inventory – 4 months of average total vehicle sales. Difficult to understand how this squares with AML’s supposed ‘demand-led operating model’. Has AML not heard of ‘just in time’ manurfacturing?
At half year, the excuse for the rise in inventories was that this is “reflecting a significant number of ordered vehicles awaiting final parts at the end of June”. However, despite an (unbelievably) good Q4, when 2,352 vehicles were ‘wholesaled’, in the second half, inventories only decreased by £m21.4 million (equivalent to the cost price of approx. 160 vehicles). Given that AML’s working capital situation is absolutely dire (current ‘trade and other payables’ of £m876.3 is roughly the same as the entire year’s ‘cost of sales’ of £m930.8m – creditors are waiting one year for payment!), it’s hard to believe that AML has consciously decided to hold inventories at such a high-level. I suspect that demand is probably a lot softer than AML expected and, in addition to pushing a lot of vehicles onto its wholesalers, AML is also holding too high an inventory of stock that it will want to quickly offload.
There appears to be a total disconnect between the AML narrative accompanying the final results and the actual numbers themselves. A Kafkaesque appraoch when reporting financials never ends well.

& Stroll words at results last weel:
"Aligned with its ultra-luxury strategy, the Company continues to operate a demand-led operating model. However, given the timing of deliveries towards the end of Q4, total wholesale volumes were temporarily ahead of retail volumes at the end of 2022. Many of those vehicles were retailed in early Q1, and the Company expects to see retails outpace wholesales in 2023."

Lost your faith at £15, but still defending the indefensible at these levels at £2.
Be VERY wary of rampers.

AML_007
Posted in: AML
Posts: 241
Price: 1,927.50
No Opinion
RE: Dunnieboy are you still alive?12 May 2021 06:32

For a while, the fact-based approach lost money and the faith-based one made money.

Clearly there would/should always be a point where the facts over take the faith.

For me and AML, the cold hard facts would hit home at around £15 a share.

Next fundraise will be far sooner than most people think.
Esopecialy if they lose the current Nebula court case.

Ronald certainly knows his stuff:
Loading dealers and marking cars as sold to hit targets is not a good look.
Stroll lying to shareholders again.

(comments section)
https://karenable.com/aston-martins-fy-2022/

Ronald
9 Mar 2023 10:39am
Excellent analysis.
There is also something strange about AML’s inventories figure at Y/E. Inventories were £m 286.2 million up from £m 196.8 (YoY). On a Gross margin of 33% and an average selling price of £177k (or an average production cost of around £133k per sold vehicle), this is equivalent to 2,150 completed vehicles being held as inventory – 4 months of average total vehicle sales. Difficult to understand how this squares with AML’s supposed ‘demand-led operating model’. Has AML not heard of ‘just in time’ manurfacturing?
At half year, the excuse for the rise in inventories was that this is “reflecting a significant number of ordered vehicles awaiting final parts at the end of June”. However, despite an (unbelievably) good Q4, when 2,352 vehicles were ‘wholesaled’, in the second half, inventories only decreased by £m21.4 million (equivalent to the cost price of approx. 160 vehicles). Given that AML’s working capital situation is absolutely dire (current ‘trade and other payables’ of £m876.3 is roughly the same as the entire year’s ‘cost of sales’ of £m930.8m – creditors are waiting one year for payment!), it’s hard to believe that AML has consciously decided to hold inventories at such a high-level. I suspect that demand is probably a lot softer than AML expected and, in addition to pushing a lot of vehicles onto its wholesalers, AML is also holding too high an inventory of stock that it will want to quickly offload.
There appears to be a total disconnect between the AML narrative accompanying the final results and the actual numbers themselves. A Kafkaesque appraoch when reporting financials never ends well.

Stroll said it himself you mentallist.
Aligned with its ultra-luxury strategy, the Company continues to operate a demand-led operating model. However, given the timing of deliveries towards the end of Q4, total wholesale volumes were temporarily ahead of retail volumes at the end of 2022. Many of those vehicles were retailed in early Q1, and the Company expects to see retails outpace wholesales in 2023.

There are none as blind as those who do not wish to see.

You should be more worried about the rollover of the debt in 2024.
£1.2bn, which was taken out when interest rates were at 0%.
Now rates are heading to 6%, why would anyone take 10.5% on one of the riskiest companies on the market?
Huge problem. If you can't service your debt ,you are insolvent

Does anyone remember Jack the nutter on here who argued with me, stating inflation would last a couple of months?

Once inflation starts, it's super difficult to reverse.

I bet Kenneth Gregor is sucking on his pipe by the fire, glad he is out of this mess.

Stroll said h1 2023 will be as bad as h1 2022, so stop lying doyeezee.
F1 has nothing to do with aml.l, most people are only realising that now.

They loads US dealers in q4, now have to shift them on q1 and q2.
Now many people will be buying cars that are about to be upgraded soon, so expect another profits warning this year too.

You should have sold at £3, you never learn.

https://karenable.com/aston-martins-fy-2022/

Sky (from the other forum) on the Karenable article:

"If it's true that a not inconsiderable chunk of DBX has gone into dealer inventory, it brings me back to old times. The Valkyrie still has a lot of problems. The one that came to Berlin isn't running smoothly either. From my point of view, however, the main problem is: the loans. The repatriation of the 200 mil. GBP at the currently bad exchange rates makes no business sense. Not even the expensive loans have been repaid, but the first lien. And I don't think that was voluntary. When Stroll & Co. borrowed their shares at the high of the price, they would have had a good 400 million. GBP can invest in buying back the loans. With a margin of over 10%, that wasn't a bad deal at the time. Today you get almost 5% on fixed deposits in the US/Canada, a risky 10% commitment no longer makes sense. In my opinion, the existing cash is not sufficient for the development of new vehicles. Valhalla, Vanguish and DB 11 successors are going to cost more than available. So again I tend to stay outside and stay up until Sept/Oct. wait and see after the H1 numbers. I don't think being long unconditionally is a good idea at a company that doesn't make money. Especially not in today's world where cash is king"

Untrue.
I was in the deepest parts of Africa for 2 months without any internet, and TheAnserIsNo was posting freely during those 2 months.

If anyone believes a car dealer, then they should not be investing in the market, the most untrustworthy source possible.

AML could sell 10,000 cars and still not be able to pay off the debt.

Stroll is Swiss Toni’s sociopath brother!

AML have just burned through 80% of £635m in 5 months.
They £585m left, which will be burned through in no time either.
They have to redesign 3 new cars, which cost around £200m each, and still pay the debt at the same time, which is £295m per year.
Then they have to design electric vehicles.

There is absolutely no way they can do all this without another cash raise.

That's without losing the court case with Nebula. which means £585m will last even less than a year. 6-9 months for the next cash raise I reckon.
I'll say I told you so when it happens.

The only dealer you are speaking to is the guy in a hoodie in your local park.

You know car dealers? Which ones so we can check?
Sounds like someone is losing a spread bet and under water, saying anything to make their money back.
What’s your average here?
This is what happens when you listen to tampers.

Maybe loading dealers with DBX's no-one wants in Q4, 2022 in order to meet targets?

Stroll has proven untrustworthy at every turn.
How many times does he have to lie to you before you realise?

You do know AML and the F1 are completely seperate companies don't you?

Which exact news is going to propel this higher....?
Gross debt increasing?
Rolling over 1.2 billions worth of bond dent in 18 months at interest rates 5% higher than when it was taken out?
Missing just about every target they make?

Be specific.

Mick, do you think someone as smart as me who calls everything AML correctly was short from 90p?
Mwahahaha. Nice try.

Skywatcher knows his stuff on the other forum

price has moved very far away from the lower moving averages and has fallen back below the SNA 200

SMA 20 211.92
SMA 38 191.63
SMA 90 163.65
SMA 120 152.03
SMA200 288.39

a pullback to the lower GAP , which lies between the SMA 38 and the SMA 20 would not be unusual,
the upper one is close to the SMA 120 and this area is very likely to be reached

11% of AML's free float is lent out right now.

You can believe hype over substance if you want.
The company is in the exact same place it was in a year ago, and it fell from £23 to £1.
I'd actually say numbers are worse..
They needed a cash injection when cash balance hit c. £400m to cover all liabilities. It won;t be long before it touches that figure again, 6 months and squeeky bum time again.

It drops as fast as it went up, eh?
Anyone who bought over £2.50 are now selling in a panic.

Stille, the £1 share price became £20 in the stock split, then it fell to under £1, so 1/20th of what it was. Then the Rights Issue created many times the number of shares present before.

So like I said, 6 times more shares around, so £2.85 is equivalent to £17.10.
This reminds me of the last run up, after a cash raise, bankruptcy staved off, and completely overbought on sentiment. The SP got well ahead of itself then too.
When it ran out of steam, it fell just about every day....

Directors were buying close to £20 and it fell to 90p. They are geavily in loss, just like most on here.

Sell up and crystalise the gain, or hold on and lose the profit, the choice is yours.
So many emotional investors around who know nothing about company valuations.....

Shares out on loan, an indication of short interest, represent about 11% of Aston Martin’s free float, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence as of March 2.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/aston-martin-stock-jumps-22-as-short-sellers-get-squeezed-out-1.1891593

Don't trust shortracker, only shorts above 0.5% are listed there. ;)