Member Info for c2645sg

You'll be right Duke, crack on. It seems the markets (AML share price) agrees with me more than you....whatever.

No-one knows the $/£ price in the future, that's why you should hedge against it is you're a UK company taking out debt in US$.
AML didn't, and it's costing them hundreds of millions more than it should have cost them. Awfull decision-making by Stroll, who has very little of his own cash invested here. He lost his CFO because of it at the time.

Stroll is on record for saying he wants to renegotiate the bonds, that costs money, and would happen this year or next.

It cost AML c.£32m in fees to buy back the meager amount of bond debt last year. Pointless, you spend more on fees than money saved.
Gross debt has INCREASED after having raised £635m only 5/6 months ago.

Don't patronise with asking for facts when I posted links to AML very own documents.
If the £/$ rate stays the same as it is now, it will costs AML another £150m extra next year on FX 'headwinds'. Headwinds, hahaha.
Terrible decision making bankrupts companies, like the 3 banks last week. Huge risk here too.
You think the £ will appreciate against the dollar and AML won't have to pay exttra for the difference, great, buy some more shares.
Keep us posted.

I get it, you're sweating, so say anything to support the share price.

Posted in: AML
Posts: 4
Price: 259.50
Hold
RE: Recovery is on here14 Mar 2023 14:20
I'm upbeat about AML and I expect a sideway movement of the shareprice in the £2.40 to £3.00 range over the next 2 months.
By the way I did top up yesterday after calling the fall back to £2.40 (see my post last week).

https://thumbsnap.com/gsXKDf5s

Total finance expense: £368.2 MILLION.

So, Duke, do you know how to read a balance sheet, or are you lying on purpose?

Page 49 on the document.
Net financing £352m. It says it in black and white.

Yes £120m is paid in cash, but the rest is on the balance sheet. You do know that right?
Page 184 breaks it down for you.
Nice try though, only mentioning the cash element ignores the rest of it, such as... (page 184)
"Bank loans, overdrafts and senior secured notes
Foreign exchange loss on borrowings not designated as part of a hedging relationship Interest on lease liabilities (note 15)
Net interest expense on the net Defined Benefit liability (note 25)
Interest on contract liabilities held (note 20)
Finance expense before adjusting items
Adjusting finance expense items:
Premium paid on the early redemption of Senior Secured Notes
Write-off of capitalised borrowing fees upon early settlement of Senior Secured Notes Professional fees incurred on refinancing expensed directly to the Income Statement Total adjusting finance expense"

You can also expect it to rise when they have to rollover the debt, as the costs will be huge, and interest rates much higher than they were when they took it out.

Kibcalm, tell us how AML will be profitable....

For 2023;
Capex and R&D: £370m
D&A: 350m-370m
Financing costs: £350m.

Target for 2024/25 is £500m EBITDA.
Minus financing costs of 350m
Minus D&A of 350m
= £200m LOSS.

A loss of 200m in 2024/25 and we haven’t even included electrification costs or Nebula court case

I ask anyone to show me how AML can EVER be profitable?

Anyone with high risk bonds in Credit Suisse deserves to lose their 'investment'.
It was on the slide for years, who would invest in the worst bank in the western hemisphere?
Bank analysts don;t invest in banks for a very good reason.
Probably the same kind of people that think AML are cheao too, just because the share price drops....every day....
Cheap for a reason.

No-one taking me up on my offer to show how AML will ever make a profit?
Anal007?
Bueller....
Anyone....?

Thought not, much easier to start some gossip about me working for a hedge fund shorting AML from Singapore, and sharug my real name thinking it might stop me posting. Wrong.

For 2023;
Capex and R&D: £370m
D&A: 350m-370m
Financing costs: £350m.

Target for 2024/25 is £500m EBITDA.
Minus financing costs of 350m
Minus D&A of 350m
= £200m LOSS.

A loss of 200m in 2024/25 and we haven’t even included electrification costs or Nebula court case

I ask anyone to show me how AML can EVER be profitable?

All numbers taken dirextly from Anual report 2022 released a few days ago.....

"Number of shares owned:
Lawrence Stroll - 198,681,199

Includes 104,993,195 shares also disclosed by Yew Tree Overseas Ltd
and 69,984,367 shares also disclosed by Ernesto Bertarelli."

So that means Lawrence could own as few as 24m shares, worth £52m today.

198,681,199 sounds better I guess.
Do you not expect us to read the footnotes?

More lies from Stroll, remember this?
More proof of blatant incompetency.

“I will be renegotiating the bonds at a more favorable rate, probably, and taking some cash to pay down part of the debt,” Stroll said. “This company will be cash-flow positive in 2023.”

How’s that going Lawrence?

I didn't say it, aml007 did.
Why are you not questioning their figures?
6.12 times as many shares, to be exact:
698/114= 6.12.

How can anyone listen to anything you say when you chastise me for figures a ramper posted directly from the official AML website?

AML_007
Posts: 411
Price: 223.40
No Opinion

RE: CEO'S CarrotToday 07:30

https://amsc-prod-cd.azureedge.net/-/media/corporate/documents/annual-reports/aston_martin_annual_report_2022.pdf?rev=6a462584d1c54890a85a324a2663c3d7&hash=9A3C425CE6101D99D4249E882AA19A4F

The key point is that the £18 SP target was set in Jun.22, before the 4:1 RI.

For reference:
Pre-RI – 114m shares @ Feb.21 SP peaks of £22 = Market Cap of £2.5bn.

Post-RI – 698m shares & matching Market Cap of £2.5bn = SP of £3.62.

£18 quid target then is equal to £3 now. 6 times as many shares.
Nice try though.

https://karenable.com/aml-f1-sales/

UK Inflation higher again, another rate rise in the offing, and 0.25% will barely touch the sides.
Inflation at 10.1% and rates at 4%, still a negative real rate of -6%.

Every time rates go up, AML's non-bond debt gets more expensive.
And the problem for the £1.2bn bond debt gets harder to rollover.

6 times as many shares.
So a 227p share price equates to £13.62 and we know how overvalued it was then.
It came down to £4 before the rights issue.
AML will need another rights issue within the year.

Sooner if they lose the Nebula court case

Funny how no-one can find or post the article.

If you're unsure how risky AML is, remember this:

Credit Suisee bonds were priced at 9.75%, to compensate them for the risk of bankuptcy. They just got completely wiped out.

AML bonds are 10.5 and 15%, the highest in Europe.
AML have to come up with a plan as to how to rollover those debts, £1.2bn of bonds, when interest rates are 4/5/6% higher than they were when they took them out.
Stroll was hoping for profits by 2024/25 so there was less risk, now he is loading dealers to hit his own reduced sales targets and sales are not improving.

The only reason margin is up is because of the Valkyrie's higher sales price and more creative accounting.

AML is valued at £1.62 billion, losing £500m per year, total net debt pile (Gross Debt + Payables + Customer Deposits – Cash) of £1.97 billion, with £1.4bn of intangeables on the balance sheet needing amortised over the coming years.

If sales had risen, Stroll might have had a chance to renegotiate the debt down, but sales are sinking.
AML is even more risky now than it's ever been.

Within 12 months they willl need more cash, and still not be able to pay any of the debt down.

A ticking time bomb if ever I saw one.

It's worrying enough that Stroll loads dealers to hit targets.
What's worse is the target had already been reduced.
Even worse, shareholders seem quite content about the chairman lying to them.

442 car sales is 7%.
If Stroll's hyperbole was correct he certainly wouldn't need to load dealers to hide uncomfortable truths.

Just as well we have BBs where people speak the truth and show up the lies :)

I wouldn't even pay you 4p per post Noah, unintelligable twaddle.
Tell us, where does the SP go next? What level are you topping up at?

Then we can truly hold you accountable, tell us in advance.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I_VxdGuCuNM

Is this the Alonso effect on the SP, down 5%?
Beware, gaps up on opening are sucking people in, then the MM grind it lower the rest of the day.
Told you, heading to £2, don't listen to the rampers.

Now you can buy almost 50% more shares than you could at £3.
Big week, CPI inflation numbers and interest rate rise decisions mid week Wed and Thursday.