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Objectively, this quarter is much weaker than what AMLs initial guidance suggested. Debt levels are up again and if you add in the roughly £80 mil. rise in payables over the last year, it is almost exactly where it was in Q1 2022. This would imply that all £653 mil. raised last year to, in Stroll’s words, “to deal with the god-damned debt” is gone and the debt is very much still here. The raging inferno that is their cash burn continues and to be that negative (£181 mil.) on cash flow in a quarter when no interest was due on the debt is highly concerning (interest is paid in the 2nd & 4th quarters). In the March Earnings Call, Stroll stated “as long as we execute on the plan, we do not see any liquidity needs whatsoever”. This seems like wishful thinking given both cash and debt levels in Q1 2023 (Cash £407 mil. & Net Debt £868 mil.) are very similar to where they were in Q1 2022 (Cash £404 mil. & Net Debt £957 mil.). Back in Feb 2022, Stroll was quoted as saying:

“Let me be crystal-clear, black-and-white: we do not need money.”

This was followed several month later by the announcement of the £653 mil. Equity Raise. It is very hard to see how Aston Martin will avoid needing another equity infusion in 2023 at the rate they are going.

Vehicle wholesales down 47% vs. Q4 2022 and -5% vs. Q1 2021

Free Cash Flow in Q1 2023 of -£118 mil. vs. -£25 mil. in Q1 2022

Net Debt Up £102 mil. to £868 mil. vs Q4 2022

Cash in Q1 2023 down by £176 mil. to £407 mil.

Https://karenable.com/aml-q1-2023/

Net interest 122.6m in Q2.

That's 490.4m per year. Minus the 80-90m from recent loan payoff.

So 400M per year.

Still way too high, and as Hexam states, only a small percentage of it is fixed rate, so the rest increases with higher interest rates.

Market doesn't like it.

Mary, are you giving out investment advice?
Reported.

Hexam, please show us your workings for 150m euros in interest per year.
Thanks

How much do TUI have to pay in debt interest every year?
Any profit will be cancelled out in debt payments.

Shareholder equity is negative, so what is everyone buying into?
You're supposed to buy into companies who share their profit with shareholders.
Debt getting more expensive every month, another 3 interest rates pencilled in for this summer.

Shares have dropped though, so they are 'cheap' huh?
Amateur hour.

How about far enough ahead of the curve in order not to be diluted and lose 35% of your investment?
Probably easier if you channelled all that passive aggresive energy into understanding how markets work.

All knowing, but lost almost all your cash in CINE too.
Let's all listen to you for advice. ;)

You only knew an RI was coming when the company told you?
I think the whole point of stockmarkets is to be ahead of the curve, not behind it.

You all sound desperate.

None of you saw the RI coming, but speak as if you know for certain the sp will rise.
Hilarious to watch.
£140 beer money, the most fanatical are playing for peanuts.
75% of day traders lose money, they only tell you about the wins though.

You have to have a license to give financial advice.
This site bans people for doing so, quite rightly.

Don’t listen to any of these fools telling you to buy.
They are all heavily in the red and will say anything to stem their losses.
It won’t work.

Screenshot their ‘investment advice’ too, keep a record of it. I am.

Every RI is the 'last one'.
TUI said that in 2021 and did another in 2023.

6 billion in debt WAS SUCH AN ISSUE TUI HAD TO HAVE 2 RIs in 2 years.
Unbelievable.
And there will be a third.....

I have many ways of thinking, when the facts change, I change my opinion.
What do you do?

IAG quote net profit way before EBITDA, a quick search in entire annual results show it only mentioned 5 times, whereas with TUI, EBITDA is all you see.

If it's good enough for Buffett/Munger, it's good enough for me.
Obviously you're a better investor than them, so we'll all just listen to you Mike and lose money.
40% down on TUI I am guessing?

The difference between you and me is you are fighting for it to rise 40-50% to even up, I could invest now and save myself the pain.
You'll be right though.

Quickdip, agreed!

I meant RIs/cash raises etc rather than debt/borrowing.
My point being, TUI will probably need another RI, and the lower the SP?Market cap the trickier it gets.
Same with AML or any other highly indebted company.

Net debt v markets cap means nothing, really?

If a 50bn company had 500m debt, or 50bn debt, that makes no difference?
You folks... are bonkers!

The market cap is no of shares x share price, so market cap is directly correlated to share price.
When a share price keeps sliding, your cash raising gets more difficult and expensive.

When you're worth 500m just try to raise 2bn to pay off debts...nearly impossible.
That's why companies become insolvent, there is a tipping point where no-one wants to save you as there is no equity worth saving.

Also, when companies deliberataly try to confuse you with consolidstions and RIs, the market cap is the only constant, therefore arguably the metric you should be basing on rather than the share price, which is all over the place right now.

IAG barely touch in EBITDA.
Only companies who want to hide problems use EBITDA.

What's the point ot telling people your earnings are 500m if you Interest and Tax are 500m per year? Never mind Depreciation.... or Amortisation....

Mike, I did have a look at both links.
For anyone reafing, see how difficult it is to ignore EBITDA and focus on NET PROFIT.... it barely exists on TUI, huge red flat.
The reason for that is because EBITDA sonds all nice and rosey when your EB is hgh, but your ITDA are all huge... and by the time you pay them you have little (if any) profit left

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o-elqpThxg8
Munger and Buffett on EBITDA.
"Every time you read EBITDA, substitute in Bullsheet earnings..."