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I would worry about this as a value trap if it didn't have so much free cash. a company like ITV, has had good P/E ratios, but doesn't have the cash to pay out on buybacks and divs. This company has consolidated its debt into 5yr bonds, suggesting that 300m will stay in place. I don't see much point then stockpiling cash at lower return. They aren't looking at M&A so divs and BB must be font and centre of their strategy. They could become a very high yielding stock if and when they choose. Last yr they paid out 100m that would be £1.10.

They suggested in Q&A in webinar 1-1.5% growth 26/27 then 2-4 so revenue wont change upwardly in a dramatic way in the near term, so we need share reduction to drive EPS.

THe Goco deal consisted of £144m cash, and 22.6m new shares at approx £1960= £445m taking shares in issue from 98m to 120.6m

Recent buybacks actually repurchased those shares for 186m thus reducing the acquisition to £330m. Nothing like grasping at straws

I like this consolidation approach.

Eyes on efficiency and cost reduction. reducing pay per clicks from £75m a year spend, streamline portfolio. 20m cost savings annualised by full year 2028

Revenue growth through improved monetisation of in house initiatives, rather than chasing revenue and profit acquisitions at 12+x.

And at 3.9x earnings, 30m free cash is being very well utilised in buy backs. The problem there is that EPS 2025 will be so lagging after this tranche.

@£5.37 average purchase from now, there will be 90m shares left. Full years £130m profit would be £1.44 EPS 17+ % increase. And room for more in H2 if cash is available.

I do think however we are going to see £4s after Ex div date, but this may be the rinse the shorts want, to close shorts and go long.

On the webcast the CFO mentions Bonus payments this year ie 25, come out of 26 earnings, and no bonus for 25, so no profit pool deduction in FY26 figures.

Futures slide presentation 2025 results on their website. slide 26 cash generation. Mentioned on webcast aswell.

there is a tax paid of £42.9 under cash consolidation on RNS presentation, which is obviously the VAT and tax payments together

6-6.5% share reduction

Thanks for the response TP

I appreciate the irrelevance of statutory figure, especially with this company. I guess what i'm trying to find is where in adjusted items is the 21m vat bill and bonus pool , exceptional items are shown. If it has brought cash conversion down from from 96% to 86% it must be post operating profit.

They made 130m profit, basically statutory profit 66m +amortisation 64m. paid out 99.5m in divs and BBacks leaving 30.5m,. therefore net debt should have reduced by 30m but went up 20.

Anyway. keep the 130m profit up, AB Amro start knocking 100k shares off a day around the £5 level we should get 6-6.5 share reduction.

I would hope within 2 years we see 80m shares and market cap of 1.2b= £15

Can someone shed some light.

In the results there were two sets of figures.

One off items - VAT bill of 16.5 million and profit pool/ bonus pool neither of which will occur next year =£21m

Exceptional costs- impairment charge £15.2m, redundencies £2.7m = 17.9, less income re properties .4m = 17.5

all of these seem one off cost adding up to approx 40m if that had tax taken off at 25% then 30m added to statutory profit straight away.

thats a 50% uplift on profit 96m. Unless i've got this all wrong, very little was made of the dent in profit from these items.

It suggests that even without revenue growth, a reduced share count to 95m, statutory EPS should be around 90-100p next year. that uplift would probably cause re rating to industry levels of 12-15x.

Happy New year everyone!

Every DAWG has its day. SP seems to be respecting 500m MCap area, unsurprising as the company has £223 EBITDA.

I think last year in Dec and May announcements they called 2x 55m buybacks and 3.5m div £114.5.

If they were to repeat this Dec announcement in May we would be at 60m in buybacks and 34m in divs. with the reduced share count 18p div so 35p for year.

at these prices we wipe off 10.5m shares, all for £20m less than last year outlay. 20m off debt, if they earn the equivalent amount.

If the market doesn't want to recognise the company atm lets play the system.

Apologies, I thought you were talking about this new buy back tranche.

Having said that, 2 years ago Future had 120m shares in issue, at current market cap these shares would be trading at £4.15. Squeaky bum time for many at that price I imagine.

In the UK Media & Comms sector trades at 4.1x EBITDA, E-Commerce 5x.

At 2025 results EBITDA = 223m so in theory Mcap should be 914m. it's languishing at 500m. Buying at these levels seems to make perfect sense.

At this level Future should add another 10% to EPS for 50m. Wipe out 50m of debt, approx 18%, interest payment down about 4.25m then tax that additional profit=3m that adds about 2.5% to Adj EPS.

The sentiment for the share could take a while to recover. When it does, and is trading around 900m Mcap.

95m shares = £9.47.

85m shares= £10.58

I also believe short term this may protect the share price a bit. As has been said previously 500m is less than value of GoCompare itself. If SP stays the same through buybacks, we are at £470m mcap, at some point around those figures tongues will start wagging about buyouts, or mergers or breakups.

If not another 30m tranche at £470m mcap would take us to less than 2x EBITDA, something would have to give .

Although the amount the directors bought doesn't set the world alight, hopefully after 3 months of the new year they may be investing with some insight as to numbers for H1 26. The one off buy back last week I assume was that fees were additional to the 55m.

MONY is trading at approx 6.75 x EBITDA. GoCo should be £540m on its own at that ratio. Buy as many shares back at these prices as possible

I believe management saw pressure on revenue growth a couple of years ago, and that's why they turned to buy backs to maintain EPS. we are really trading at 135 with the shares in circulation. if that was multiplied by 10.5x as MONY is then share price would be approx £14.

From a technical view. Charts show the sharp drop from Covid from £15.50 to an intra day low of £4.95.19/3/20Subsequent bounce lead to highs of £39.

From this the drop lead to a climax and intra day low at £5.15 7/12/23. On both occasions however the price ended the day above £5.75 which we have stayed below. But with valuations so low, this area down to £5 should allow for a decent bounce. I'm sure a few institutions would like a 3% div at £5.10

And CFO did suggest dividends would increase annually.

Fingers crossed, and they bought back yesterday which is a bonus!

I'm really not sure that the board buying £100k of shares each will turn this around.

Also think from £30 + this was way overvalued.

I was heavy into Barclays a couple of years ago, the price was £1.30, all the headlines were bad, Monzo, Revolut taking market share, fewer IPOs, more credit defaults. On this forum, new CEO hasn't got a clue. Bottom line. They were valued at 19b, with 5b net income. Too cheap!! just over two years later, £4.40, £60b Mcap and likely to hit £6 in 12 months, with buybacks , revenue is up 20% share price 340%. The market will turn this when ready, and for no particular reason.

If this company committed to 2 years 80m per annum Buy Backs even at an average £8 that would wipe off over 20% of shares. That would have todays profit at £1.70 a share. at 10x multiple £17.

I think this is a good moment if your invested mid to long term, low valuation, but actively working that to their advantage.

I have 300thousand of these shares at £6.50 av , and would love them to turn on a dime, but feel in 2/3 years [hopefully much sooner] we see will be truer value.

The buy backs haven't fully been recognised yet imo, its been very aggressive through 2025.

last week Adj EPS £1.21 x 106m shares = 128m profit on todays share count of 95.7m that = £1.34 reduce shares by roughly 5 m for this 30m tranche that

leaves us with £1.41.

Unsurprisingly there was little mention of the Growth Acceleration Strategy this results day. not sure modest 2-4% organic growth is what the city read into that origionaly.

I think the tone of the last results, being very much stifled revenue growth, and more emphasis on trimming cost. Not what most tech style investors are looking for, with all the other options on the table.

Yield investors wont be interested at this level. No more updates till early Feb, so who is buying, apart from Future Plc , and myself.

If your committed to buybacks, then best its at very cheap prices.

Fidelity International saw something in this company to double its stake early in October. Not sure what they paid for it, but someone in their office presumably did some number crunching prior to purchase. They own 10m shares

It appears at this earnings level there is approx 100m spare cash. Reduce the share count through 2026 to 85mish then turn to Divs. 70px 85 is 60m outlay, then 40m towards debt reduction. 70p div should have this share at £10-12 in no time.

Hi everyone.

At these prices, I believe buybacks are very powerful. this is trading with a Mcap of 565m atm.(3x FCF) The new 30m BB will wipe off over 5% in the next few months. Probably the same again announced in May. Can certainly see Adjusted EPS being £1.50+ next year without huge revenue movements.