RE: Massive Overreaction14 Jan 2021 18:50
Massive over-reaction? It hasn't even started
AAZ can wait. CGNR need this to happen. AAZ have their pick of licences/projects/opportunities. CGNR are in last chance saloon. The complications you point out (jurisdictional) are known and obvious to anyone BEFORE the deal terms were announced so it's nothing to do with that, much as you may wish it to be.
This is a tiny stock so there is no deramping agenda - there is no scope to make money shorting this tiddler.
On balance I believe that the deal WILL NOT happen
AAZ don't have to put out a negative message. It's diplomatic speak for the "wheels have come off the cart unless Prof Con becomes reasonable about the issues we have found"
AAZ share price hardly budget on this RNS
CGNR dived 20%
The rose tinted glasses say that other deals have been held up due to Covid, Brexit, increased regulatory issues/bureaucracy. Wow - show us one. Covid, Brexit and reg/bureaucracy were all there when the heads were inked. It is something else, unpalatable as that may be
At best the deal will go ahead but on re negotiated commercial terms
At worst it will be called off and CGNR will go under. Prof Conroy has an incredible track record of always being the bridesmaid, and the only time he was the bride (at Arcon) he had a massive fall out with Tony O'Reilly his JV partner.
AAZ can discuss the license area with the Irish Government if the deal falls over but they still like the look of the technical data, and for a lot less risk and commitment than the CGNR JV
Welcome to the world of grown up reality without the rose tinted glasses
This will open massively down tomorrow morning when bigger shareholders get home and read that AAZ RNS