The masses don't understand the investment case for i3e...after years messing around and letting people down with timelines, to be fair they were constructing a really solid portfolio of low risk high reward assets. They are now at the business of oil manufacturing....appraisal and development drilling, not some sort of wildcat exploration. £20mn market cap is "option" value, and with 2 years of missed targetupside from s being squeezed into the next 6 months, this will go from ridiculously misunderstood to ridiculously undervalued. The wider investment community doesn't understand the low capex and high productivity of Liberator and the likelihood that Serenity will be even bigger. My expectation is that the share price will be > £2 by end of calendar year.
29% CoS from a prospective 469mmbs which would unlock higher chances on a further 2bn. Fully funded drill. Upside from success on Prospect S of £3.32 per share vs 9p today. Spud Q4 2018. So a 1 in 3 chance of success to go from pennies to pounds with no funding risk. Am sorely tempted to put some punt money here for these rare odds.
Even the company have presented on their funding unlocking $328mn (�241mn pre tax) of 2P at NPV10% for Liberator alone based on low recovery and low oil price assumptions. Their corporate presentation Nov17 shows a low risk path to $1.46bn (�1.1bn) valuation by H2 2019 (OK let's assume that's now 6 months behind target so call it H1 2010). With a break even of $25/bl for Liberator and this asset reputedly previously valued at �1bn by its previous owner when oil prices were higher, the upside from today's �25mn market cap is truly staggering given the speed of value creation which is possible here. Best of all, Carson and Heath have pedigree, massive skin in the game (6,500,000 shares each) and were responsible for Ithaca
immediate family member was on an EMISWeb training course in her practice yesterday and told me that they found a number of flaws on reporting functionality (ie) searches did not create accurate reports. Guy from EMIS accepted that something was wrong when presented with the gaps. Didn't inspire confidence. After the event the doctors discussed the risk of audits etc missing out patients so there could be knock on real world risks from the problems discovered. It would be interesting to hear from other GPs what their view is of EMISWeb functionality. For me, we're out of EMIS as there are clearly still issues which could have huge risk ramifications.
Madness. If you have 200mn in the bank it's from someone else (debt) unless you raise it from shareholders (equity). You don't just get a 200mn market cap because someone provides you with a line of funding. Crazy logic. Easy to see why mugs lose their shirts on high risk AIM shares.
PS before I get the usual deramp accusations here, I hold 12k shares in this company, but am grown up enough to know that they are not risk free no brainers
Have had a good look at i3e presentation and admission document. Everyone is Uber bullish here, so it might be worth remembering some points on the other side of the risk reward scale:
1 finance is not yet legally in place.
2 i3e completely dependent on other people's infrastructure to get oil to market ie repsol have them over a barrel, and there is also the risk of infrastructure decomissioning which upsets growth plan for 234mmbs target
3 takeover valuations don't apply....they are bottom feeding on small stranded fields. Think financial metrics rather than barrel of oil based valuations
4 it's tricky to hit small pockets of oil, even after a discovery drill. Risk of a production well not working, weather disruption, technical difficulties etc
5 like any oil business, there is risk of productivity being less, declines earlier etc