Member Info for BuyToHoldForever

EZJ is truly in play. Institutions letting it be known that a bid of £7 will get them on board. The risk with that strategy of going public via the press is that synergistic industry bidders could now emerge and quickly take the meal away from Castlelake as they now know that £7 gets a deal done. There's a lot of money on the table from £5.18 to £7. It looks like the shorters are going to get burned big time if Castlelake go "best and final" at £7...but who knows if that could just put Easyjet into play for the airline industry

I can see this getting to a best and final bid from Castlelake of £7 a share but with a full equity rollover option for Stelios to get his support. Everyone wins. Stelios keeps in touch via bidco, and can't complain that the final bid was too low. Castlelake get a further European equity owner on bidco with no anti trust issues, and have 15% less funding to raise. That's where I think this will end up.

i'm invested here for the next 3-5 yrs as i believe this will play out well with pepas providing the cash to become a medium sized gold explorer and producer without the need for constant dilution. my take on the current weakness is the outworking of finding more gold near the pepas mre, which means there is a possibility of a plant build rather than toll mining. that means the possibility of capex rather than opex. that means the possibility of an unplanned equity placement to cover capex for dead money like road build etc. that means it weighs on the share price. it's a good bad problem to have...the 220k mre for pepas is more than enough for payback plus but if there is a ****load of gold around the core mre then a toll processing deal won't look so smart 2 years down the line imho. it would be lovely for someone to come in on a jv on our other acerage with a slug of cash for an x% stake which would cover exploration and capex for the forseeable. on a medium term view 19p a share is a steal. if a jv / non dilutive solution gets announced this year the shares will instantly re-rate to 35p-45p as the placing risk disappears.

Third dimension? Feels like hints of an underground pyramid of silver/gold

It's incredible to see how many folks compare MRE oz as a basis for valuation comparisons with no look through the economics of extraction (ie) a company like OMI has small but incredibly rich deposit at surface which is low capex and low opex to get to, and therefore low funding cost, quick payback, and low operational risk. The after tax profit accruing to Orosur from extracting Pepas is around $0.5bn by my calculations...versus the market cap ex cash today of c. $100m so Pepas worth 5x the market cap before we even go near the Tier 1 exposure across El Cedro, Anza, El Pantano, North Pepas etc

Some folks may have been looking for higher MRE totals but I've just modelled this using the consultants assumptions, with 25k mined per annum, none of the inferred, and gold at $5,000/oz. The output is a cash profit of $60m a year after tax, over 8 years, for a value to Orosur of $481m (£350m STG) which compares to Orosur market cap of £133m...so there is 3x upside from just one project cashflows never mind the TBA from the rest of Anza, El Cedro, Pepas North, El Pantano. I'd rather have 200k MRE easy to extract and monetise than 1m oz of deep/hard rock gold.

Or to put it another way, if Orosur hadn't found and proven Pepas to MRE, but instead announced they had a funder coming in to give them $60m a year for 8 years from 2028, with no shareholder dilution, no debt and just an up front $15m arrangement fee, the shares would have gone into orbit as all that exploration whale hunting could be achieved with no funding risk. Yet that's where we are today.

If DT is true to his word? That's the last reason in the world to invest in anything...he's the ultimate snake oil salesman

I hope they can stay independent for at least 3 years as I believe they have the potential to go up 10x from here with Pepas starting to produce cash and Argentina/El Cedro/Anza/Pepas North becoming resources

The MRE and grade at Pepas lead me to believe that there will be a toll offtaker who might just cover our Capex in return for exclusivity over Pepas / maybe future Pepas North. We know the tollers have capacity so it wouldn't surprise me if OMI management strike a deal which preserves their OMI cash for exploration while someone else pays for the Pepas mining capex...given where gold is at the payback is so quick that it's low risk funding

I asked my cousin, a precious metals geologist based in Toronto, what Orosur could become (market values)...he said Pepas was vakued in todays market cap but everything else was in for free. In terms of where it could get to in the next 5 years he said the potential was there to become the next Agnico. The irony.

New equation....El P = 25Ag + 6Au

This will be the biggest multi bagger of 2026 in my opinion. I have a lot of knowledge and experience in the sector and EVERYONE else is on a flotsam of whims and policy changes and requirement for subsidy to make their economics stack up. AFC have actually worked out how to de carbonise without subsidy. When I worked out the ammonia input cost element of the equation I realised that the proposition stacks up commercially, so I have made a significant investment here at 10p and will stay on board. AFC will blast off off in 2027 but the valuation will reflect that in H2 2026.. and there is always the possibility of the climate change denier numbskull brigade being voted out of office during the years ahead

Https://www.mining.com/opinion-awakening-the-argentine-giant/

Canadian gold miner Collective Mining is next door to Orosur....valued at £920m today but still needs £1.5bn and 10 years of runway to get their mine up and running....whereas we are c 2-3 yrs from mining Pepas for an investment estimated at $15m...and thats before any additional upside from other resources that will undoubtedly be proved up at Anza...oh and those other monster projects that we have barely poked into

The Turner Pope model says Pepas based on drilling to date alone worth 42p per share, but assumes spot gold 20% lower than today and recovery lower than likely, and no more gold to process when we know that isn't likely...but even with those prudent assumptions the payback is just 2 yrs and the mine delivers more than half a billion of cashflow. Pepas cashflow will be like having a 10 year equity $500m placing option with zero shareholder dilution to advance all the other projects that could dwarf Pepas. That makes Orosur unusual as so many junior explorers have to dilute on the journey...Orosur have something special to prevent that journey....production plus exploration in parallel

does anyone have any new *** packet estimates of the likely size of resource at pepas after these results? i think there was a broker recently using 2.7m oz of recoverable gold via open pit and $15m of capex. wonder if today's drill results show expansion of mineralisation and likely scale of resource at pepas. the grades continue to be stunning

But this find is absolutely jaw dropping:

PEP055:

The quoted composite assay result from PEP055 of 47.25m @ 15.25g/t Au has been influenced by two consecutive high-grade samples across 1.9m in which visible gold was noted in core. These two consecutive samples returned 465.71g/t Au and 122.74g/t Au respectively. Outside these two samples, grades assayed were largely in line with adjacent holes. The Company feels that these two samples represent a real, and very high-grade vein, but are also cognisant that coarse gold has the potential to create a sampling bias if incorrect sample preparation has resulted in heterogenous distribution of gold throughout the sample. To assess the potential impact of this, pulps from these two samples were re-assayed twice, with reasonably consistent results:

Sample 1: Re-assay returned 453.19 - 478.22ppm after the original drill found 465.71 g/t Au over 1.9m

Let that sink in. Orosur have a Fort Knox on their hands at little Pepas

broker (turner pope) conservatively estimates pepas at 2.1m at 4.2g/t but with infill offering the potential for this to grow much larger in oz and grade. the broker have a risked value of £172m on orosur…so 2.5x today’s share price for what they describe as a conservative estimate of pepas before the q4 infill drilling programme upside, to get orosur to an mre.

analogy is continental gold’s $1bn buritica project in colombia, which contained 5.32 million ounces of gold at a grade of 10.32g/t, and even though it was underground mining in an area of serious local disputes. this project sold for cad $1.4bn at the pre-production stage.

infill could see the share price zoom to the moon if the broker *** packet estimates turn out to be based on ridiculously small oz per year assumptions compared to economic reality. we are all about to find out. exciting.

Zero debt and generating £1bn EBITDA per annum with a market cap of just £4.4bn....so valued at under 5x. Biggest retailer of premium athleisure in the UK and USA. Just compare that to the 25x EBITDA valuation of Nike Inc (EV $113bn / EBITDA $4.5bn) and, well, do the math.....even with Pentland Group's shareholding there has to be a the possibility of a bid before we enter a couple of years of big global sports events that will act as a tailwind for Nike. Hell, even Pentland Group could take the 48% they don't own private with a small premium. Personally I'm hoping JD stay independent and are allowed a few years of recovery growth after a bumpy ride

There isn't a pups chance in hell of any copper mining in NI, especially not around Cappagh. Have a look at the joy and history of Dalriadan in that area. The Tyrone republicans rule the roost unfortunately and they like the green Irish landscape left unspoilt by mining or any other economic activity other than tourism. Just being realistic.