Member Info for Bushmaster

T0n1c "we may never get to see the price/margin for many of the orders, particularly when it comes to DHSC"

I think that is right, they will not be a % margin on cost to product, we don't even know if they will have more than one price list + currency conversions for possible exports.

For me, I work on the GP%, I know what it has been for the last 2 years, I also believe Omega will not drop the GP, the numbers won't add up and they are to earn money and give SH value, so that leads me back to what I have written before, work on a min 65% GP, but expect 75% GP - You get 75% + - 2%, you have will have exceptional 2021/22, as long as over the 12 month period, "all" contracts total 400 million.

I don't think my GP predictions from previous posts have been positive, many think the math is wrong, but if its higher, great - If its more or less correct, someone can take a punt on the SP in 6 months on those contract numbers.

Got at 26.7, lets hope a RNS is on its way.

I can't buy 5K's worth, anyone else?

I

TWatcher - To my paragraph:

"Omega might have 60/90 day accounts with their suppliers, what is the cost of product, no idea. There could be forward buying, clients securing orders with deposits, that cash won't be shown yet. Too many variables not to say 10m, or 3 million units. I will be astonished if there has be zero production, what that level is remains unknown."

I used the word 'might' I could of used others - I was responding to your 'cash burn comment' How you get to "Might haves and could bes. That sounds like evidence driven by what you can't see :)"

This sentance you wrote "I remain convinced that statements from both ODX and partners, and ODX own finanicial forecasting is strong visible evidence that capacity has nowhere near been used at it's maximum since Oct"

Its very easy to use your own words against the above "Might haves and could bes. That sounds like evidence driven by what you can't see :)"

I take it from what has been written, is 'what has been manufactured' since Oct last year, seems to be an overriding issue for you, and I would include myself in that, but certainly not as negative as your thouughts. You mentioned earlier on in the thread, "up from diddly squat" to what has been published, the 2 mil per week, end of April/May (see below)

What about the workforce increase? From what I can see this has been a rolling on exercise over several months, how that translates into fitting in new machines, enginners to calibrate, and these new staff/what are they doing, is another question you have posed which is unknown. All these roads lead back to what has been produced since Oct, the monthly quantities and what is as of today is currently sitting in stock - From this thread and others there are potential numbers, you gave a scenario yourself.

Yesterday I saw a tweet from the Alva site, pallet (s) I presume it was from the site as the window reflection had the mountians on the image - So we know there is a pallet (s). How many units go into an outer box? How many outer boxes per box? How many boxes per pallet? If you know the answer to these 3 questions, then had a good idea of the number of pallets, you will have a number of what is in stock.

TWatcher, I take your points on board.

What I would say, RTC/I do agree we have to know what has gone on before, its still presumption that Omega is or will work with the RTC - It is very unclear, but I can't see any facts to a yes or no.

Mologic antigen test, agreed, but its still a hard fact. It's presumption, no one knows as of today. You can't say tests have not been sold, tests could of been sold if CE/TT is met - You have no idea, Omega have clearly stated they are talking to prospective clients.

Gov test - does this not lead back to Mologic test - Some test will be used, if not what the up to contract and the RNS.

Visitect test- agreed, that is fact, that is what Omega have stated.

I can't agree this all hard facts, I re-read your posts on this thread, the above is what is comes down too, a few points and the rest is a stab in the dark.

If they are stock piling, and if they are and have no indictiion from partners who want to buy, then it is strange. From a business point of view, for them to be manufacturing you would think they would of had commitments from buyers if they ahere to what is on the H&T - That is how it normally works with new product coming to market, I can't see why this would be different.

The cash burn I can't comment on, there are going to be variables. For example, Omega might have 60/90 day accounts with their suppliers, what is the cost of product, no idea. There could be forward buying, clients securing orders with deposits, that cash won't be shown yet. Too many variables not to say 10m, or 3 million units. I will be astonished if there has be zero production, what that level is remains unknown.

TWatcher, good retort - Unlike you, you go for the sublte approach, the soft hand approach.

There is no evidence, your evidence is driven by what you can't see, but what you think you know, but you don't know. You are presuming everything, which is fine, you can't say its evidence. If it was, it would be fact, and if it was fact, you writing what you have would be worthless.

Here is the defiantion of the word evidence.

"of the available body of facts or information indicating whether a belief or proposition is true or valid"

TWatcher, I am surprised you can breathe you are so far up your own orifice. You clearly do feel you are above all, your replies smell of superiority, based on nothing but what you think.

As I stated in the OP, I had read what you had said - What I read was correct, if not, you would not of written it. Whether you are sceptical or not, I couldn't care less - The simple point I was making, its simplistic in its nature, is what I mentioned earlier, which is ""A few weeks back you thought they had produced 8/12 million?” was because of what you wrote"

That was it, in a nutshell. Now in your mind, I should of gone into the detail you had, why you wrote those words, to whom and on it goes.....and then pre-guessed what way your mind was swaying today.

You don't need to be clear and make a point about being clear, I already stated the obvious for you, here is a repeat "here I agree with you, there are no figures from Omega, is conjecture by the BB, and by the face of it, you as well. The whole BB is conjecture without solid RNS's to back it up, you write as everything is a matter of 'fact' when its clearly not proven to be"

As for the non BS that has come from my sentance, you could be right, you could be wrong. They might of been sitting around doing some/none/or millions of units, its crystal clear your positon - I would hope you are wrong, if not you must have second sight and should be able to do very well out of the SP.

TWatcher - The reason I said ""A few weeks back you thought they had produced 8/12 million?” was because of what you wrote.

You have stated "And there above is an example of either selective reading or seeing something that wasn't written”

The answer to you is no, my reading is based on what is written by you, its not ’selective’ nor am I seeing something that is not ‘written' - As I clearly stated I had not looked at your history, I got to page 3 and here are some snippets from your history. You are on the one that has stated what "you thought" what capacity had/or/is/likely - pick a word that fits your thinking.

If people want to put figures onto production, just like you have below, let them - You have your opinions, its fine for you to air yours and stick to your narrative, but for others its not so fine - Where I agree with you, there are no figures from Omega, is conjecture by the BB, and by the face of it, you as well. The whole BB is conjecture without solid RNS's to back it up, you write as everything is a matter of 'fact' when its clearly not proven to be.

This below is from your history:

16 Mar 2021 20:56 - "I see many are still perpetuating the myth that ODX are working flat out knocking out tests at max capacity since oct 2020. A reasonable estimate by me last week was that at max capacity, ODX would have produced 9.4M tests by end of last week”

11 Mar 2021 12:15 - "for one thing they've been ramping up capacity from 200K to around 1.2M by the end of this month, also been designing and setting up an elisa lab test service, and been doing the mologic TT, and activity around non-covid of course”

09 Mar 2021 12:58 - "To be conservative, I am assuming each months capacity is the capacity at the end of each month, and capacity over the month is average of start and end of month.

Oct 200K, this was the base level... 800K for the month
Nov 300K, rising from 200k, average 250K a week... 1M for the month
Dec 500K, rising from 300K average 400K a week....1.6M for the month
Jan 600K, rising from 500K average 550K a week...2.2M for the month
Feb 900K, rising from 600K means 750K a week...3M for the month
March 1.2M a week, lets say 1 st week of march is 800K....800K so far in the month.

0.8M+1M+ 1.6M+ 2.2M+ 3M+ 0.8M =9.4M
The above assumes a month is 4 weeks, but there's a little more than that. But then again they were closed for 2 weeks at christmas, and there is the 250K known RTC production, so one roughly cancels the other out.

So above is 9.4M not the 12M i guessed. Given at the end of March it'll be 1.2M a week, by end of march total output will be around 12M, so my guess was about 3 weeks out"

Great news, they do this recruiting due to the excess toilet roll they bought in....Need staff, keep adding and let them sit around all day, eat, check the local walks out, clean the bosses cars....why else would you keep employing people. I don't know, I need to think about the business model a bit more.

TWatcher, how do you know they are making no LFT's?

A few weeks back you thought they had produced 8/12 million? I can't be precise as I have not checked your history, but that is more or less a number you thought that was being produced, or was that the ABC-19 test you where referring to?

Good to see the site up - Bought a further 5K, showing as a sale on L2.

*Just on the employees contribution the HMRC receive 16%, that excludes CGT - Innova, from what I can see they are not paying any of these 3, and not employing in the UK. Even the Innova stock is FOB from China, Virgin tender for the flights...its all costing money.

That should of included in the 16% the pension contributions by the company - If you add the employee on, it goes up to 4% over 3 years from memory.

NelsontheDog "Apologies if i have missed something in regard to the sovereign test. Why would the government continue to buy Innova when it doesnt support their UK sourced strategy, when there is a Mologic test available now?"

There is no product in the UK, Innova have the product, they have been shipping in for several months via Virgin Cargo - Innova, US company, manufactured in China - Long term, can the UK goverment rely on 3rd parties - we saw the issues with PPE as an example - Van Tam as well as others have stated one fo their biggest regrets is the lack of a UK diagnostics manufacturing supply.

Is this why Omega, Surescreen, GAD have been selected to fill the hole once all three are up to speed and can produce the LFTS etc that are needed?

You would think so, made in the UK, employs thousands, self suffiencient to serve the UK population (NO EU to rely on) creates tax, employees contributionetc...its a win for for UK PLC.

Just on the employees contribution the HMRC receive 16%, that excludes CGT - Innova, from what I can see they are not paying any of these 3, and not employing in the UK. Even the Innova stock is FOB from China, Virgin tender for the flights...its all costing money.

There is a potential saving of 38% (including CGT) by not buying in Innova and using Omega instead - for each million that is 380,000 saving, back into the bank of HMRC, that is not chicken feed.

Trickymatters, I think the big difference with here and GAD is the funding, SOROS, they can go in mulitiple directions due to their contacts in goverments worldwide - I mentioned this a few weeks back, have a look at their BoD, look at the countries they are based in - There is the story.

The question is how much of a side show is the UK? They have x contracts now which they need to now supply, longer term will they go for further UK tenders, or will they concentrate on Southern Africa? The reason I suggest this is the market in Africa is 1.5 billion people, not 66 milion, and the competition will not be as fierce. The other part is corruption, Good Law can find a nugget here and there to keep their paymasters happy, but in Africa business is done with 'brown envelopes' or should I say BTC now.

If any of the above paragraph is nearly true, better news for Omega long term.

The other point we need to consider, especially with the new tenders coming in, is will Omega keep expanding? Unlike a pregancy test we know they are here forever, its a product that will always be needed. Covid, I think this is not going anywhere for a long time, variants are going to be the long term issue - If that thinking is right, then will Omega expand further into the market if they believe they have 2/3 year window taking them to 2023/24 - If so, the numbers of 2 million a week will become 1 million a day, as long as Omega know the future landscape.

Regor.93, thats right, you are one smart china! Tell me, when you get up, do these ideas pop into your head, or is a process that takes several hours to manifest itself? I appreciate it might take several hours for the return, just off to the beach with the dog. PS - The only millionaire status you will get close to is if you catch a plane to Zim and buy the old currency, wheel barrow style!

Wallbrooke2021, that tweet makes perfect sense - I mentioned this a few days back, the loan machines from UK Gov are for their stock - ODX other contracts, those are seperate eggs in the basket and are using different machines, and I believe that is what Omega have been manufacturing, the ABC test.

This is why I said with a thread I did 'The Math' a few days back, I worked on the 'up to' 374 + the 200 million tests (RNS), using the GP% of 65 - MB and others think the math is wrong, it might be, but IMO its not for this contract, regardless of the numbers overall. If it is correct, + - 5% as I still think the GP% will be 75%, then its all good news, more than good news.

I have zilch idea on the ABC margins, there is nothing out of any substance to have a stab at.

I still don't understand the over reaction with the RNS, it makes perfect sense to me.

Time will tell.

MattDamon85 - Might be worth you having a look at the last few years accounts of Omega, RnD and what they have for a food test, market prediction of up to $5 billion - If it was not for Covid, Omega would be moving nicely into this market, which is there foreever, it will never go away - Here is a link to get you going.

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/food-allergy-diagnostics--therapeutics-market-worth-4-71-billion-by-2026-grand-view-research-inc-300930340.html

AUaddicted - 'lickle' isn;t it irrelative - If you bought in here are 5/10/25P and AV at £1 etc - isn't it just a % game for the investor? To ODX LTH's its better to be in here, AV, I am not invested so can't comment if there are a lot of early birds still around or the average with most holders, example is a £1 - Then this is not so 'lickle'

MattDamon85, I don't disagree with some of your comments, but ODX can/possibly manufacture for AV - Its a win win for both companies. Manufacturing is key to any product, something to think about.

tecbadger - "You may not be trying to cross ramp but you are posting misleading information about tests and performance data which does not currently exist in the public realm"

Thats a good one, those 2 sentances sums the board up over the last serveral days...