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Looks like someone is dumping at 60p, 60,000-100,000 shares being offered at 60p and every time they get bought another tranche appears. Maybe GS, maybe day traders or maybe someone who knows something re next weeks AGM. All speculation of course, but this share is being held down.

Agreed JMAX.

They won’t want to leave important and market sensitive information to be disclosed during the AGM, it will be released prior as not to detract or take front seat to the AGM minutes and presentation on guidance and Raul’s 10 year plan.

Huge week ahead of the AGM on the 16th. Expecting the odd RNS prior to the AGM updating on drilling, Kenya, hedging and base oil price assumptions for the rest of 2021. IMHO I feel there’s going to be good news coming on multiple levels in the next 10 days, this along with the continued rising oil prices, should mean 70p is tested. I really wouldn’t want to be short on Tullow, more orderly exits in the coming days offering steady daily rises. GLA

Rosneft Warns of ‘Severe’ Oil Shortage Amid Hasty Energy Shift
Interesting article from the Russians.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-05/rosneft-warns-of-severe-oil-shortage-amid-hasty-energy-shift

60p just gone… not much resistance now to retest 65p and then 70p. Shorters are closing leading up to the AGM. Hold to your golden tickets and enjoy the ride.

This is positive for the company and potential new investors. I wouldn’t be surprised if this was all part of Rahul’s master plan, as Dot should have gone after the Q4 2019 fiasco.

GS selling into a rise, we’ll see an RNS in the coming days stating GS has reduced their position. Shorts will be closing, it’s an orderly exit (unfortunately) but for LTH I anticipate a gradual rise to the 60-65p range leading up to the AGM. If Tullow announce that they are now going to use $65 as a base case scenario for oil then the stock will rise accordingly. I see 70p+ this year.

Good article in Bloomberg this morning:

Brent Oil Tops $70 as OPEC+ Flags Tightening Market Before Meet
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-31/oil-rises-after-opec-forecasts-tightening-market-before-meeting

Brent Oil Edges Toward $70 With Improving Fuel Demand Outlook
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-17/oil-steady-near-two-year-high-on-improving-u-s-demand-outlook

Shorters will be closing on the rally and then adding to their short once the stock has had a 10% rise. Adding to their shorts at 56 doesn’t make sense. Expect more news this morning from the wider media reporting in last nights after hours RNS.

I also wanted to understand what the actual difference is in interest payments from current annual debt costs vs the new 10.25% 180m bond coupon costs and how does that equate to free cash flow generated moving forward. I expect there’s not much difference or impact. Net net this takes all material uncertainty away from the company for 5 years. This has to be excellent news for LTH, GLA

No public or market knowledge of bond completion or coupon rate. Total speculation and I don’t believe a word 90% of the time on this board, to many people with their own agenda. Low volumes today, some oilers up some down. The coupon will not be above 10% and when it’s knowledge that the 1.8bn was oversubscribed the share price will rally, only to be dragged back down again by the shorters and MM until the next piece of news (drilling and/or Kenya) block out the short term noise, horse blinkers on until 2022.

JJ can I kindly ask where you received/found this information regarding the bonds and coupon rates of over 10% also the share buy backs and future dividend restrictions? Thanks in advance.

Interesting article on:

Why ‘Peak Oil’ Won’t Mean the End of Drilling
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-09/why-peak-oil-won-t-mean-the-end-of-drilling

Nervous today when it goes into auction!

I think we will see 70p breached before a Thursday’s call and possibly the MS 75p flirted with on Friday. AIMHO.

UP! The positives and the forward momentum is undeniable. A new week a new FTSE250 listing, investor call Thursday, hardly any resistance up to 75p, shorts will start closing and we will see increased institutional buying, short squeezes, I see £1 possible in the next 8-10 weeks. If we find oil in Suriname the skies the limit. Rerates coming this week, tide has turned and new investors want part of a sure thing and Tullow is now a solid profitable and in control oil player. AIMHO GL bulls...

Based on this theory, is it just coincidence that there was a very ‘unusually’ late after hours purchase of exactly 16,000,000 shares? This back of a fag packet assumption ties up with the big ETF’s needing to have Tullow market share at opening today’

Welcome to the FTSE 250 boys and girls, onwards and upwards I can see this marching on towards 60p. GLA

Vanguard and iShares FTSE 250 ETF’s alone have £4 billion AUM that’s circa 16,000,000 shares that they need to buy. How many FTSE 250 ETF’s are there? What about the active funds? Shorters closing out, we will definitely start to see larger daily volumes.

Oil approaching $70, joining the FTSE 250, huge momentum, clear future strategy, potential oil find in the coming months, short squeeze imminent. This could be the biggest Friday in Tullow history.

Interesting read on oil.

https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/title/2021/03/06/Crude-Oil-Prices-Aiming-Higher-on-OPEC-Surprise-Inflation-Expectations.html