Member Info for BumBum

I’ll buy back at 55p if and when we see that again today/tomorrow.

So now I’ve sold my total holding in tullow 1.8m shares. Share price went up over 5% so now let’s see if it drops back down so I can re enter today.

Ok, so I’ve sold 1m shares in the last 20 minutes and the price has spiked up to 4.5% Selling more batches of 500k to see how high it goes, then it could possible drop back to the levels this morning so I can re enter.

Will keep you all posted.

So I’ve just put 500k of shares for sale to see if they sell and the share price drops for me to by back in and make a quick 2%

So what do you think the odds are of a positive rns coming in the next 5 trading days and the SP jumping (50-75%) if Kenya doubles our market cap?

Well I’m sitting here having breakfast with the family in Atlantis Dubai on a weeks vacation, it’s 37 degrees and I’m staring to feel more self loathing coming on… why not give Tullow just one more chance to disappoint me or possibly surprise me THE rns on Kenya.

GLA

No deadline, no RNS, no magic SP recovery. Stop dreaming, Tullow is locked between 45-60p range, understand it and trade it. I’m doubling down when it breaches 50p later this week.

Love it BRB ; )

After being heavily invested for 2 years now and seen how poorly Tullow has performed and missed countless opportunities to sell out just above 60p but always held the faith that just around the corner, something miraculous was going to happen, but never did. I’ve decided the next time we breach 60p I’m out. This isnt to say the SP won’t rise further, but my patience has come to an end.

And for all those people saying, wait until the summer! You obviously have no idea how oil stocks perform during the slow summer trading months. Everyone knows you sell out before the traders take 6 weeks vacations and volumes are thin (a shorters wet dream)

GLA

Click on the tab ‘Tullow live RNS’ and the first RNS is dated 22nd April. It’s a very long RNS and impossible to copy and paste all of it. It’s entitled ‘Notification of AGM’

That means we ‘lose’ Kenya! Unthinkable quite honestly, but wouldn’t surprise me with this company. Downside risk is a knee jerk reaction with massive short interest spiking it down 30-40%. It will obviously come back eventually. Upside is somewhere between 60-70p, although low 60’s is the major resistance. I wouldn’t be surprised if we don’t hear anything until the proposed AGM end of May.

It states:

Purchases would be financed out of distributable profits and shares purchased would either be cancelled (and the number of shares in issue reduced accordingly) or held as treasury shares.

So if passed, the company can buy back up to 10% of the float and could just cancel those shares reducing the total shares in circulation, meaning share holders share will be worth more… this is one way of giving shareholders value.

Thoughts?

This share is crap, dropped 15% this week on what? Next time this touches 60p if it ever does I fully out, there’s so many other ways to make money instead of painful daily drops for no reason.

Crazy that by lunchtime, only 835,000 shares have been traded! There’s zero interest in this stock this week for some reason. We need the days of 20 million volume traded to see real positive movements. This company needs to release some positive news ASAP.

Sorry, but if you think the SP won’t be negatively effected if Tullow loses everything in Kenya and misses the 10th May deadline, you’re mistaken. The shorters will drag the SP down massively on thin volumes. The markets are always forward looking and all information publicly available is priced in. Of course the SP will jump if a partner is found for Kenya. I’m long Tullow and pray for a solid positive game changing rns.

If we hear nothing on a strategic partner, take over, buy out or farm out by 10th May, expect the SP to drop 30-40% we have exactly 3 weeks / 15 trading days from tomorrow to get the RNS we have all been waiting for… 10 years in the making. This is the game changer we all hope for to rerate the SP. If we don’t get it (and I’m 50/50) the SP will collapse for a while and recover back to current levels (based on additional drilling and rigs in Ghana in Ten & Jubilee at current POO)

Just my 2 cents, GLA

Anton, you must however admit this 60p level is proving the real ceiling for Tullow recently. For whatever reasons and the shorters and protagonists will offer their opinions, the fact remains that for us long term (believers) we are now clutching at potential ‘game changers’ I am now more fearful than ever before on disappointing Kenya news or no news which will drop the SP back to the 40’s. So I for one have decided that if we see 60’s again next week I will be selling half my holdings for cash. If I’m wrong then I still benefit if I’m right then I get to rebuy at 20-30% discount. Anyway, historically you don’t want to be holding this share over the summer months. I’m turning (part time beginner) trader now. My holding is for me massive (1,7m shares) and a little trading on the highs and lows can make a huge difference to my unit holding, with a target of 2m shares on one successful trade.

Happy Easter and GLA

BRB - if I sold and re bought every time the SP hit 60p in the last 18 months and traded a little instead of long only hold, I would be a lot better off and holding double or triple my share holding now. But alas I don’t have balls to attempt! However, now I am going to definitely sell at least some above 60p, because Im sick of the self loathing lol ; )

He she goes, retrace back to mid 50’s… I fear there could be equal weight bad or no news on Kenya and this could decimate the SP, knee jerk reaction back to the 40’s. We could even see short interest increase… why or why do I never learn and sell all/some in the 60’s!

No dividend for Tullow for many many years… small issue of debt payments and refinancing. FCF needed for drilling and exploration. Even in the last presentation we were told shareholder value will come from the share price not dividends. We need to be a growth stock not a value stock.