Member Info for BumBum

Lol unfortunately I am the eternal optimist! I’ve been in Tullow for a couple of years now and still I’m surprised by how manipulated and crooked the markets are. Last year we saw big swings to the upsides and short squeezes, this year however we only had the surprise inclusion in the FTSE250 and announcement of the refinancing that pushed us up to 65p, since then it’s been painful watching, however I have been constantly buying the ‘excessive’ drops, deluded that this might one day reach those levels again. We all talk about £1, but realistically I think we would all welcome 65p again. Let’s hope we have some consistent blue days to reward those that have shown an abundance of faith and patience.

Looks like the market know something us PI’s don’t… share price dropping, red for the day, I can’t for the life of me think what’s coming up on Wednesday that’s going to be so negative and detrimental to Tullow that warrants the price being dropped and held in the mid 40’s.

Morning All, let’s hope for continued positivity and news specific to Tullow thIs week that takes us back above 50p. We cannot control the POO, OPEC, Biden etc but at $80 crude Tullow is in great shape. Let’s hope for increased production guidance, FCF, accelerated debt payments, successful drilling, $75m FID in the bank and some news on Kenya and a potential strategic partner. Here’s to a great week ahead, GLA LTH.

Mr Levy, do you have a copy of this letter or the working to share? Would be great to see what they wrote as this could/should again increase awareness in the PI’s.

And now we are negative for the day? WTF does Tullow need to do to really move the SP into the 50’s again? We are increasing our production (unhedged) by 10% and substantially adding to FCF and paying off debt, increasing our reserves and this doesn’t give us a 10% jump in the SP… The volumes traded are embarrassingly low, only 2m so far today. It’s seems this company is being manipulated and controlled by forces that will never let the SP increase. Even a 10% gain still keeps us below 50! I’m starting to think unfortunately that no matter what is said/released next week the SP won’t move. Starting to lose all confidence now, not in Tullow but the SP. Opportunity costs abound…

Crude at $85.5 as I write… not that it makes a huge difference to Tullow but it’s positive sentiment and will help with negotiations and a proportion of our unhedged production (FCF+) we seem to stay flat on rising oil but drop on any oil drops. Should be a slight increase in SP today.

True, however it does seem from the outside looking in, that it’s now or never for the Kenya project. Raul explained that the viability of the project becomes more expensive/complicated with each passing day. I only hope that all the stars are now finally aligning, with POO, lack of global drilling and exploration from all majors, increased demand over pre covid levels (except airline fuel which is forecasted to exceed pre
Covid levels in 2022) and the Kenyan government which has agreed a $1 billion debt to help fund the project. For Tullow it all lies in the balance…do we find a strategic partner in time? What are the conditions of sale and are there negotiations with potential suitors on-going (bidding war) or is Tullow getting desperate and having the pants pulled down (Uganda style) I’m sure all of this is being thrashed out in Africa this week and possibly we will hear more next week. Maybe the shorters are hoping that Tullow doesn’t find a partner in time and looses the license, either way it’s a game changer for the SP. GLA

Fantastic headline news that will be read globally. This should be the start of serious and positive news for Tullow Oil. If we have a solid trading statement next week, $75m FID rns and a possible announcement of a strategic partner before December, we could be seeing highs for the year 65p+

Hi Alwaysone, good to hear you’ve bought in today, can I ask why now, what are do you see as an investor that makes you confident to buy in now? I’m a LTH and been disappointed with the last 4 months downward trend from 65p to 45p today. Would be good to know your thoughts? Good luck

It’s a wonder why at 45p more shorts haven’t reduced, how much lower do they think this share can go? Maybe they (the professionals) know something we don’t! It’s more than likely… I think we’re going to 60p but looks like I’m sorely mistaken this year lol

The SP fell to 49.72 this morning. Check your numbers duh

Moody’s upgrade yesterday and Raul & Les giving an operational update today and the SP drops to 49! I am totally baffled… what did the Moody’s downgrade do to the SP?!? I’m sure it didn’t rally on the downgrade so why doesn’t the SP move towards 55?

Are we expecting an RNS or a statement from Tullow tomorrow 21st October? Are we being driven down like always before any news and the news just takes us back to where the SP was the week before?!?

This share never fails to disappoint. Only more good news this week, higher oil prices, 3 more broker upgrades, another week of additional FCF and still this share is down on close last Friday. I might be wrong but I thought shorts were closing and everyday they had less and less of a stranglehold on the SP. Why can’t Tullow ever reach close to its true potential? Why today it hit 55 to finish at 51… anyway, horse blinkers on for the long long long run into 2025 jokes. Happy weekend all LTH

Who rattled your cage? Pipe down, grab a beer it’s
Friday after all and we have more positive sentiment from broker upgrades. If this news reaches people outside of this board and the broader market place, it’s a win win and hopefully will attract new investors.

Alongside increased commodity price deck we also allow for improved production expectations from Tullow's Jubilee field," it said. Jefferies highlighted the "material leverage" that Tullow exhibits to higher oil prices.

"In our $70/b oil price scenario, Tullow's Total net asset value increases 61% to 93p and 2022 - 2025 free cash flow yield increases to 33%.

"With the renewed focus on Ghana production and this commodity price sensitivity we upgrade to buy with a 70p price target with the catalyst being evidence of production improvement into 2022."

What was said about FCF? Wasn’t the oil price assumption at the HYR in September based on $60 and if oil was at $70 it would generate a further $50m-$100m.

Regardless of oil potentially reaching $100 and if so how long it will remain at that level, at current prices, say the next 12 months at $80 or above what does this do to FCF, paying down additional debt and/or using this additional capital for Kenya or other drilling projects?

What also does $80+ oil do to the viability of new projects especially Kenya? Does it make it more appealing to the Kenyan government, other oilers, the partners, farm out etc. didn’t Tullow announce at HYR that the costs per barrel of oil from the Kenyan project had significantly decreased and with $80+ oil this project is extremely attractive to all concerned and to many others watching from the sidelines.

Long and short of it (excuse the pun) Tullow is in a very unique and exciting position where I personally feel the tide has/is turning. Shorters should continue to close, investors could start eyeing up pure oil and gas mid caps to take advantage of the current energy crisis regardless of its fashionable, green or whatnot, they all want to make money…

All in my humble opinion, GLA LTH’s I feel a slow and steady continued rise into 2022.

6% + I think this could rally hard between 50p-60p in a very short space of time, seen it many times before with Tullow.

Possibly could be GS reducing their position as the shorters are also closing out slowly. I do wonder though why GS wouldn’t hold their long positions to take advantage of the riding SP that we all think will happen in the next 12-18 months. I rightly or wrongly/blindly think we a double bag on our hands in that time frame. GLA

Agreed, I still believe in £1+ in 18-24 months… The only question is, is there other less stressful shares to invest in over this time frame that have the potential for a 100% return?