Member Info for BumBum

Oil has jumped above $130 on the announcement that’s why Tullow has risen above 60p. Unfortunately nothing to do with ‘leaky’ results. Hopefully the results will speak for themselves tomorrow and we get an organic bump up in the SP to 65-70p range.

Take out that 200,000 sell at 60p and march on towards 70p, absolutely no reason for this not to breach 70p given the fundamentals, POO, Tullow’s outlook and where the SP has been with much lower oil and uncertainty.

GLA

Lol not close at all ; )After the auction this morning and short squeeze I thought there would be a blue UT. How wrong could I be… never thought today we would see such wild swings. Tullow continues to surprise, amaze and disappoint.

After close of trading 16.30 GMT you’ll see a UT and I’m positive it will be a blue BUY of around 1’500’000 - 2’500’000 shares.

In Auction… shorters are absolutely bricking themselves… The next few days this share could break 65p

Feel sorry for the shorters?

Libyan oil production drops by 400,000 a barrels a day. Output down to 920,000 barrels a day dropping below 1m for the first time. Sharara the countries biggest oil field has been shut down since Wednesday.

US & European allies discussing a Russian oil embargo to be implemented from tomorrow.

Tomorrow morning oil is only going one way and regardless of Tullow’s hedges, we have increasing unhedged barrels that are taking full advantage of this. We were all surprised by the net price achieved by Tullow in January, hedged and and unhedged, what do you all think that figure is doing to be in February/March and for the next few months? Simple question - higher or lower? only more oil coming on stream for Tullow and good news on Wednesday. Shorters have 2 days to close their shorts.

Not even including a discussion on Kenya which is the 50-80% rns jump in SP.

My prediction is 62p this week. GLA

Oil actually fell on the news of nuclear Friday, oil will potentially rise further if congress and Biden agree on sanctioning Russian oil and gas. The ceasefire is for corridors and movement of civilians, the invasion hasn’t stopped and Putin’s goals and plans remain the same. Regardless, I hope there is a quick and peaceful to this horrendous situation. Wednesday we have full year results which will show additional FCF at these levels. Oil at or near 100 is money in the bank and paying off debt quicker.

Who would want to be out of this come Monday? Oil price will close near $120 and potentially open far higher Monday, results coming in on Wednesday, perfect storm is brewing, she swings 20% in 48 hours she can swing 20%+ in 48 hours… enjoy your weekend all.

And the reason for the sudden 7% drop in SP?

Could we see $120 oil today? totally unbelievable…

This is going to surge all the way up to results day. Shorts closing, more interest and volumes now we are in the FTSE250, POO and additional FCF this company will be re-rated. I can see 60p broken and held this week and next week we could test recent highs of 65p.

Patience pays off, GLA

I luckily called it last week that with current state of affairs Tullow would join the FTSE250, my next call is that heading up to 9th March we will break 60p (again) what’s difficult is whether or not we will drop back down to 50p in the subsequent days or be able to re-rate and hold the 60p level. I don’t trade this share but every time it breaks 60p and drops to 50p I literally kick myself! Call me an eternal optimist, but I hope that some solid good news is published, released via RNS or increased guidance/production/FCF or Kenya… always end up disappointed though.

Hi DB,

Thanks for that. Restaurant group might be doing us a favour as close of play 22nd they were 98.20 and we were 50.12. As of now they are 96.20 and we are 52.22, so based on that alone we will be promoted instead of Restaurant group.

Once this is confirmed it will be a last minute surprise entry just like March 2020 and the SP will bounce on ETF’s, trackers and mutual funds having to buy in. This would be a lovely way to run up to next weeks results.

GLA

So what do we need to close at today to get a shot of being in the FTSE250 tomorrow? Is 54/55p enough based on other companies market cap?

I think we have a good shout at getting into the FTSE250 next week.

If ‘normal’ stocks sink today/tomorrow/Monday on this horrible news of Russian invasion and one of the only sectors to benefit is commodities. With oil at $102 and potentially rising further with tougher sanctions (Putin’s all in here, he’s not backing down) then what’s to say Tullow doesn’t close Tuesday 1st March above 55p and at least one of the other AIM stocks drops enough to be replaced, then Tullow could quite well be promoted to the 250.

With full year earnings the week after on the 9th March,
A massive rotation into commodities and value companies and yes, Tullow is making profit and FCF paying down debt, what could this increased and sustained oil price offer to the Tullow bottom line?

There has to be a substantial re rate and short squeeze.

GLA

This is what happened at this time last year, we were not indicative but then a surprise inclusion. With the recent market volatility and downturn in most companies, excluding oil & gas, could we once again make a surprise last minute entry at the close of play Tuesday 1st March? or with the big boys and shorters be able to keep this down… perfect storm brewing maybe! The week before the annual results, continued geopolitical tensions and $100 oil. For those that remember the SP this time last year rose frantically for many days back to back.

GLA