Member Info for BumBum

If the market is forward looking then please explain the 50% drop in SP over the summer? You say last weeks rise was unjustified then was the 50% drop from 65p - 40p warranted on the predicted positive results last week?

I’m totally baffled with Tullow, great news last week, positive Kenya update, broker upgrades, additional production output and guidance, debt reduced, increased FCF and profitably. Fishy 33m UT Friday after hours and down 3.5% this morning. I’m a LTH and will remain so, but this is seriously testing my patience, I can imagine others are feeling the same… GLA

How can the shirts be allowed to get out like that? No squeeze, no increase in SP just an easy exit with zero benefit or upside to us PI… it’s an absolute joke.

So is it fair to assume then that if Tullow drops out of the FTSE 250 the SP will drop significantly due to the trackers funds having to immediately exit, or has that already happened in the previous week/s and a surprise inclusion will rally the SP?

80,000 bopd split between Tullow, Kenyan Oil and Total. This should add circa 50% to Tullow’s daily capacity. Certainly interesting times if Tullow decides to develop the project and not sell down. Raul did say there would be no further asset sales, so… Just the small problem of the 800km pipeline!

Markets botany this morning and oil up. Traders back at their desks today next Monday, volumes will increase and the usual September rise into half year results. Wish I could have bought more last week, but fully loaded and no more free cash to invest.

GLA

Thanks Antonvb. Agreed, Tullow’s reduced production and declines in the last 12 months has hurt the the SP. We all know that Tullow is FCF producing oil company and that with the new debt maturities the company is t a concern anymore. So it’s pure fundamentals, which as you say is producing more barrels of oil per day, by either new finds/wells/increasing production in Jubilee and Ten or a surprise gusher! I’ve just resigned myself to this being a lock and load 18-24 month investment horizon. Rome wasn’t built in a day and there’s no get rich quick schemes in a successful business. I believe Raul and his team will pull out a few surprises in the coming time horizon.

If anyone who is more technically savvy than myself can shed some more detail on what we could expect to get from Kenya (worst case/best case/expected case scenario) that would be much appreciated.

Antonvb, can I ask what a ‘good’ Kenya RNS looks like to us LTSH and also the markets? What are we ideally hoping and looking for and when could the RNS drop?

Shell up 5% and we are in the red… I understand the differences but this is criminal!

Cheers Antonvb.

Both UT and sell are both at 47.20? They have to be linked… it does look like a GS sell and a short reducing. If so we will see potentially beginning of next week an RNS confirming GS reduced position. It’s because of the short reducing and GS selling at the same time we don’t see a squeeze in the SP. However, long term shorts reducing has to be a good thing for Tullow.

Volume of 16,000,000 is an above average volume and to only be 0.11% up in the day? I’m baffled… Crude at $75, shorters closing and Tullow is sub 50p. Yes, let’s all continue to be patient, but what needs to happen for this share to increase above 60p? We all know we don’t take part in the POO price rise, but if oil dropped below $70 Tullow would probably retest low 40’s. Patients is one thing but I see nothing in the coming 12 months that will kick start the SP.

Uncrossing trade over 5,000,000?!? Seems to me the market is rigged to allow the big fish to play, control and make their gains.

Unbelievable… we take part in all drops and over exaggerated drops, but never the rise!

$74 oil and 46p Tullow… after all material uncertainty removed from the business! 5 year debt maturity bla bla

How can this share not be 60-65pm where it was a few weeks ago?!!

Buying activity, shorters closing, new funds entering the market… either way this is pushing 6% up on the day. I believe we will see a sustained upward trend for tomorrow and Friday.

And hedged at $72! Wow… I’m not sure what’s more impressive, this or the fact Jubilee has said that Les has redeemed himself!

Let’s go…

BR - the reduced guidance was known and expected due to and I quote ‘ The guidance reflects the sales of the Equatorial Guinea assets’

Actually production increased slightly! and importantly will continue to increase in the 2nd half of this year and in 2022.

Extremely positive and nothing to be concerned about. Enjoy!

Solid trading statement, improved cash flow, reduced expenditure, great hedges in place, positive drilling, increased production for 2nd half of 2022 and into 22. Additional $50 million FCF on top of the $60 POO at $70 average for the rest of 2021.

But importantly they are stating now that Tullow is an on-going business without any material uncertainty! This is a great trading statement and should now warrant a rerate and additional buying.

GLA LTH - shorters lol lol lol

Just loaded up on 94,300 more shares, I’m confident the trading statement along with easing of restrictions and summer travel will give Tullow and the sector in general a boost in the coming weeks/months… if not it’s just part of the long term buy and hold strategy.

Bradley… I still own my shares, never traded them. I am up on my average holding, however I am extremely frustrated by this share and it’s movements. The fact I am disappointed and seemingly bearish has no relevance on my holding. Can you not own something and be unhappy? I am a LTH and am massively invested and some what exposed more to Tullow then other shares in portfolio. When Tullow drops significantly I add more and have down this since the drop to 8p. I don’t care what you or anyone else thinks, but I believe in Tullow it just seems to be a 18-24 month play from here.

Yesterday I said today we would see low 50’s, tomorrow we will test 49’s… this will drop like a stone, any buyers are trying to catch a falling knife. If we see high 40’s I’m a buyer again, until then this share is the biggest gamble, where the PI’s always lose.

We took no part in the recent oil price rise, with daily drops as POO rose… I called it yesterday, Tullow SP will drop like a stone (down 5%) on a 2% drop in the oil price. This stock is a total joke and we all know next week will also be a damp squid with further sell off. I can see us retesting low 50’s. Good to see the companies CFO put his hard earned money into buying 1800 shares, this has instilled all the faith I needed… I think Jubillee will be laughing his head off at that RNS.

Oil nearing $78 and Tullow SP is red again… same as yesterday. Something is very wrong here, as we are an oil producing company and if this sustained increase in oil prices doesn’t translate to a higher SP then we are backing the wrong horse.