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UNLESS - Mooky is scr*wing us over! Which is a possibility I will not rule out until its all done lol
Fair enough Hexam - about the revenue beating forecasts...but im sure theyve said January and Feb are better than forecasts - so things should be on the correct trajectory.
Wolf - I think this is something on which we have a big difference of opinion on and so will have to just see how it plays out. How can we say we are putting too much importance on it when CW specifically mentioned that this issues has prevented them accessing further capital.
I dont think unsecured creditors will get pennies to the pound and I dont think CW ever had any intention of not paying at least the majority of these in full, as a number of them are cruicial to the supply chain - including if they want to have a good relationship going foward, i,e. movie distributors. The problem I see is that CP is lumped with these unsecured creditors, and so they are all likely to get a similar settlement. So CW cant say to a big movie distributor who they rely on that they are only going to give them say 10p in the pound...in order to bring the CP settlment lower, and in turn they cant say we'll give you 100% as theyll have to give CP the same amount. So they are stuck. The CP situation has to be negotiated seperately.
If they get the CP agreement sorted - it will make the entire operation much more attractive to potential buyers (although thsi is not what i suspect they want to do) and I feel it will unlock their ability to renegotiate with lenders - to repeat as they did say at teh start of all this the CP issue was the main thing which held them up being able to access capital.
Unless they act entirely on spite, CP are likely going to have to agree on some kind of settlement otherwise what was the point of their entire exercise when all they got at the end of it was a big legal bill and no payout. Those CP board meetings will either have a lot of frustration and annoyance at colleagues, including finger pointing at the CEO who spent all this money chasing a payout they were never likely to ever receive......or if they dont accept it will be like a bunch of s******ing children who cut off their nose to spite their face.
Cp are quite understandably going to sit on the sidelines and watch it play out to see who is really bluffing and to see what is the actual likelihood of them getting paid and to what extent - before committing to a settlement.
My focus has almost entirely shifted to the CP situation now as the resolution to all this.
In any of the 'no buyer' statements, did anyone say 'surprisingly there were no buyers' or 'surprisingly no one offered more'.....? No i dont think they did, so no surprise there it seems.
Have CW beaten their revenue forecasts since going into C11. From what I am hearing - yes they have. So they are doing better than anticipated.
So if ultimately the solution was going to be wipeout - why go through the C11 and why not just go straight for C7? What was the point...
Until theres clarification on what is happening with CP - I am going to try and ignore much of the noise. I'm assuming they have been made an offer and if they play ball could probably get around 100m....if they dont play ball, then they get nothing and have to ask each otehr why they are lumbered with nothing but a massive legal bill after all this headache.
I feel (hope) once that issue is clarified/hopefully resolved - this whole situation will be unlocked.
It could very easily go right to the wire - so CP actually see a nothing result is a very likely outcome now - for them to eventually agree. This obviously means very very nervy times for us...but just how it is.
I think this is hanging on a CP agreement. The pressures been ramped up now and CP basically told agree to something or get nothing. I think once that’s sorted - there’ll be more options
I meant a rainy day = a bad month.....not months on end of forced closure + simultaneous testing of streaming + delayed movie releases as a result. Thats a bloody tsunami - not a rainy day lol
Come on - the pandemic was not a regular 'rainy day'.
The fact that they went probably 2 years without any meaningful income - is not rainy day....is a bad month.
Even despite the pandemic they would havebeen OK. What messed them up royally was the CP judgement. That one issue is what I do hold Mooky responsible for - as the contract should have been more considered as anything can happen.
Mikodx - I’m no mooky fan boy - but that’s a harsh assessment. He is a determined and ambitious entrepreneur and that’s why batting a once in a lifetime freak event he’d be ceo of the largest cinema chain in the world right now and very likely making profits.
He could have been more normal and still running a few cinemas here and there and playing it safe….but where’s the fun in that :)
lol Brilliant - hopefully we do!
Yes im talking entirely the creditors POV. Does it make sense to them to lose lets say half of their investment - knowing that the company they have lent it to can probably pay back teh whole amount over the longer term (with interest)
Streaming is sh*t. Im going to watch cocaine bear and then Creed next week
Good weekend. Look forward to your post number 2 on monday
Based on taht - i would expect that if unsecured creditors are def getting something, when theres not even enough for the secured creditors... means that secured creditors get even less as there is only a limited sized pie....
probably Poorinvestor - we'll know if he comes back to the board on Monday lol
Thing is Tegop - if what happens is in line with what Quiggers is saying, seems like they are going to lose billions if they start selling the assets, based on what offers have come in.
If they want to keep the goose and run it, well then i'm assuming they cant just write off liabilities liek the CP case. Surely you cant just go changing company names or moving assets over for free....anyone could do that. CW could do it now in that case...that seems fraudulent
also i dont think many are speaking fondly of Mooky now....but what they are referring to is someone who has a massive vested interest - more than just teh considerable monetary value...his family legacy. So he is hopefully going to fight tooth and nail to save it (unless hes part of scr*wing us oveR).
The pandemic was not his fault....the biggest blame i personally place on him is the lack of get out clause in the CP contract...thats what seems ridiculous
Fair enough Quiggers - I understand what your saying. So lets say CW owe $6bn currently. No one is coming near that amount to purchase it. So how much do we think theyll get to liquidate everything for - lose half, or less or more? Seems particularly expensive exercise unless tehy get back say $5-6bn....
In which case - wouldnt it make sense to just let Cine carry on if they are showing profitability (very very soon)
its fine...im not gonna sell thsi anyway now after being down so much.....goingt o wait until it plays out...and the limit order is not much so a bit more of a loss wont make too much difference. But based on whats been discussed today - i suspect there could be mroe twists and turns here...Lets see
ive put a limit order in, if it drops to below 2p....maybe might get some on a monday morning spike. After adding up the various factors - think its worth averaging down (with an extremely modest amount!)
Do we want to be in our out over this weekend?