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I think the whole flux thing can only be down to the question mark which existed around streaming - but I think that’s been answered now - favourably for cinema.
I’ve literally just walked out of a cineworld after watching fabelman…the cinema was packed and the concession queues were long, it’s not a surprise tbh.
February BO numbers will be very interesting.
I just can’t see CW being forced to have to let this go on the cheap or Mooky lose a massive share, when there’s a strong chance it’ll be business as usual imminently.
But thats the thing - what im saying is - the line up now going forward does look like its got depth. This is for the first time in probably the past 3 years.
Previously it was literally just one or two releases worth watching a month.
That link that LTHAmigo sent has some great looking trailers and some of those releases are not even in the link I posted....seems like theres loads of stuff coming out and unlike previous schedules, this one looks very unlikely now to be disrupted by date changes because of covid...
Im genuinely very optimistic now. Not just about the box office - but also CW/Mookys actions leading to a positive outcome i.e. leaving a lot on the table for shareholders (of course repeating the one caveat - he is not screwing us over.....). Seems to me they were in a squeeze and they knew they needed to buy time somehow - with C11 they not only bought time but managed to force longer term savings...
Lets see how it goes!
It just looks like a proper and consistent line up of releases....Some of the trailers for these look really good....i honestly dont think ive seen a schedule like this since pre-pandemic...Feels like somethings changing.
https://www.cinemablend.com/movies/2023-new-movie-release-dates-full-schedule-of-upcoming-movies
Just looking at the film releases for the next few months, pretty much from now onwards....am i being too optimistic to say we could get back to 2019 month by month levels from Feb onwards? (or thereabouts)
I know Cine have said no...but im not so sure....could they be downplaying their hand to get the savings they are working on? If Feb hits 2019 levels - do creditors really still break this operation up....
I think you're right about the releases. Just looking at options to watch today - theres babylon, megan, avatar, teh fabelmans, plane....much more than they had a couple of weeks ago. Hopefully itll stay this way.
Would late Feb be realistic once the offers deadline has passed?
If the offer was derisory - wouldn’t they simply just reject it?
I feel they are probably still mulling it over or keeping it on the table - to see how other avenues/developments play out. If there’s a chance they can get all their money back through a sale now they’ll probably prefer that - or alternatively if as time goes by cineworld have negotiated enough savings and box office recovery really is on track - maybe they would like to give the current team a chance to just get back to normal.
There’s still a few things up in the air….extent of recovery and savings…
CW/Mooky - I’d assume really don’t want a sale so want the adhoc to just go for what they have proposed…they fact they have not replied may be making them Anxious. So the latest submission was to give them a nudge by saying the ‘sale you want’ may not be as preferential to you as are expecting as we hold the cards - accept or
Negotiate this and let’s move forwards!
Also if the box office doesn’t recover and time passes, yes I could see it getting increasingly problematic but if the box office does do well - surely that strengthens CW’s hand?
Do we know what the restructuring proposal which was put forward to the adhoc group was?
Yes probably. Additionally just leave the ongoing stress of having things so tight. I guess my hope would be whatever deleveraging transaction is pursued reflects the fact that its a business who's numbers are just 'not too far off' as compared to completely wrong. Stating the obvious there.....along with we'll just have to wait and see. The outcome is likely not too far off now...
Its great news about Avatar. I am excited about next years line up - both as a cinema goer and investor (hopefully its not too late)
Wouldnt it be wonderful if Mooky was able to work some magic and convince the lenders to offer a little more patience at this last stretch, considering - very simply put - the issues have been down to the Covid disruption - and unlike other companies often in CH11, this industry has an exceptional chance of getting back to normal very very soon....He is able to offer them a much leaner business with the loss making sites getting closed, hopefully a better performing advertising partner, and higher customer spend....
We may well be past the above point by now - just trying to remain optimistic!
Do we think there’s chance they sell the UK business and keep the US? Would that give them enough of a capital influx to get comfortable and also hold on to what I would assume should end up being the largest revenue generating portion of the company…
Its also interesting to see the judges view on National Cinemedia - he seems keen to help CW become a lean as possible operation.
In terms of the delay - is it fair to say Mooky may be trying to buy some time here and drag this out or do things just take longer than what the Judge is suggesting? If Mooky is trying to buy time - does that imply anything with regards to his likely motive? i.e. in my simple mind, he wants to buy time to demonstrate a more normalised movie slate so he can refinance the current operation as is (with the new efficiencies), meaning he holds on to as much of his current share capital as possible......or does the delay benefit this newco scenario that is being mentioned a lot?
I feel that the RNS was a little unnecessary tbh. I think its been known for a while that AMC are not buying CW so it doesnt seem like it was a pressing issue that had to be cleared up urgently.
The only new bit of news for me is 'It is expected that outreach to potential transaction counterparties will commence in January 2023 as Plan negotiations continue.' - because it gives a time indication.
Part of me is wondering whether its a deliberate attempt to put some more downward pressure on the share price, in case there is soon going to be possibility and a plan for key individuals to start buying again...
January seems a more stable time for outreach - as Avatar has been doing well and the line up for 2023 (and hopefully onwards) is strong. So there marketing can be packed with a lot of positive forward looking projections...
It’s an interesting point about the studio allowing cineworld to show avatar…if they went bust then it’s a massive gamble for them on such a huge investment. It would be very worrying if studios decided to boycott cineworld until c11 was resolved! It would be amazing for someone like AMC to temporarily start getting Cineworld’s share of the revenue for releases. Realistically, they probably don’t have too much to worry about because if any cinema didn’t pay the studios it would probably mean the end of them in the business - in the current company or newco.
About the judgement - it probably would be a big challenge to overturn the actual verdict…but I feel more confident that the amount could be substantially reduced - as the amount awarded is simply ridiculous…
I think Avatar sounds like a movie which is going to get seen...if not this weekend, another one. Anyone wanting to watch it would probably regret having to see it on the small screen. Youve also got to keep in mind, its first weekend it was the world cup final and this second weekend its both Christmas and has been mentioned, bad weather.
Just a side point - I watched Dune on catch up yesterday - i had already watched it at the movies when it came out, but wanted to watch it again as i enjoyed it so much.....it wassjust an example of how some movies are incomparable on the small screen compared to cinema. Its a shame it had the streaming release at the same time - as it surely affected its takings and many people missed a great cinema experience. Hoping it gets a rerun when Dune 2 is released...
I got stung here buying very high ages ago - intending a quick short trade/profit. How wrong I was! I decided to just leave it and hopefully one day id get out at break even or better. Which im still confident I will.
But this current price just seems ridiculous. I know we are in a bear market etc, but this is actually one share which seems to release relatively decent trading news. So if it stays like this into the new year, think im going to start putting some more money into this. Its difficult to see how this does not have a very strong and quick recovery once the general market improves.
Its looking like that something like this is what is going to happen - and likely the intention of Mooky all along rather than a sale....I am going to repeat again, we are in some way lucky Mooky is at the helm here as a major shareholder as thsi is what is ensuring he has the conviction to try and steer this difficult ship in this direction.
To be fair - the movie slate next year (and likely onwards) looks very good and close to normal - which in turn means a profitable business....so its the sensible and reasonable thing to do from the lenders POV.
Ive still got my alert to top at 2p - which i am not expecting to happen - but just in case (in the absence of news of course).
I am very confident it will be. Its been a long time since ive seen such a consistent and strong line up. Hopefully things will be more like normal. Thats talking as both as a shareholder and a general cinema/movie fan. Would love to leave the covid blues well behind us!
Hopefully we'll see more netflix stuff on the big screen too. I enjoyed goingt o watch Glass Onion recently - and there was talk of Netflix, actually putting that back into cinemas...i think it did well.
Would the fact that revlon was 86% short vs CW 12% suggest, Revlon were in a much worse state than CW?
Also - could we argue that CW was more affected by the pandemic or rather had a sharper and more unusual deviation from normal business than did Revlon - and hence once covid is out of the way the prospects of CW getting back to profitability are higher than Revlon?
The Revlon lenders may still have a big task on their hands making something of that company - if it was in such a bad state - whereas in CW's case - whoever took it on would probably be able to generate profits a lot easier?
My point is - the dynamics surrounding Revlon are probably much different to those surrounding CW.