Member Info for buller

I appreciate your views and assesment and I also agree that the pension deficit is a worry. I think you excaggerate the danger somewhat,as a n example the marekt is actually down 10% since march 31st , not 20%, (approximately 5800 to 5200). Also the deficit should turn at some stage as they haven't let mroe people into the scheme for some years now but it does of course depend on the future direction of the markets and they may have to restructire financing at some stage. However the pension liability is a long terms problem and they d mention it in their accounts so I hope they will address it. I am not a pension fund specialist although I know many companies are beset by exactly the same problem. I do know a thing or two about the travel busienss and I am in no doubt that the company is going to grow revenue and profits over the next few years. Radcliffe has always been very carefull in his assesment of the future and he would not speak as optimistically as he does without having a good foundation for doing so.The USA always leads the indicators and they are substantially up this year and HRG is getting stronger in that market which will generate some strong profits. If HRG can equal last year in a period with ash and strokes then the outlook for the rest of the eyar is looking extremely positive and with the cuts and restruturing having been made and paid for their profit margin shoudl shoot up. It is far too low at this time but with the increase in technology usage and decrease in staff numbers there is no reason that up to 50% of growth in revenue should go to the bottom line. They have show great ability to retain existing and win new clientsand I can easily see them growing 25% in revenue over the next 3 years which could double profits and you can work out yourself teh effect on a multiple of EBITDA then. Any potential buyer will have to look at the debt, at the pension and EBITDA but also at future potential profits and with interest rates as low as they are money sitting in the bank is of no use to anyone so that could even mean a higher multiple of EBITDA. By the wya it is worth mentioning that their efforts to bring their general debt down has been quite successful. I do expect at some stage that the ownerhsip issue will have to come to a head. It is not healthy to have your major competitor owning more than 20% of the company and I believe one of 2 scenarios will have otplay out this year. They are 1) BCD launches a takeover attempt. 2 ) HRG goes backi into private ownership possibly in a joint venture with DNATA who also owns over 20% but who are "friendly" partner. I am not saying that this is an absolute certainty but the sign for the business part are very good but I accept that the pension deficit should be in the back of our minds and I would ove to hear how HRG are intending ot tackle this. All in all I still think this is a clear buy and should move back up to 40 before the end of the year.

OK over reacted to an unexpalinable 4% fall, we are back moving upwards as it should be

absolutely unbelievable to see price go up as expected yesterday and then drop today without any action. Just looking at fundamentals and Ebitda. The indutry standard says value is 4-6 times EBITDA. If we say 5 we are looking at about 150 million or a price of about 50. This was in a bad year, no reason profits shouldn't be above 40 miilion next year which would mean a price of 200 million and an SP of well above 60. (I am using rough figures). HRG can still do much better in terms of profit margins and with costs under control a lot of the increase in sales over the next year shoudl be going straight to the bottom line. i ma y understand this business but I don't understand how the share price is moving. I am great believer that sense will prevail, let's hope it does soon.

sorry guys, been in meetings all day and only just now had a look at the results. Everything we could have hoped for, improved profits in teh most difficult year ever for the travel industry show sthe decisions made the last few years were sensible. No need to repeat the figures but all indicators are good. The issues I doubted were would we get a dividend and we did, totalling 4% for the year and what would the outlook be andthat is what really pleases me. Expectations of growth in volume witha stable staff will go straight ot bottom line. USA is already up and they show the way in thsi industry, HRg is now profitable there and it can't har to have increased profits in dollars which is so much stronger now. Quite sensationally volume for April and may have been in line with 2009 despite ash and strikes and even in my most optimistic mood would i have dreamt that, Rhis shows a real underlying strength in the market and we shoul dhave a really great year. The company is now severly undervalued on fundamentals. the profits are about the same as they were whne the compnay was quoted at 80 a few years ago> can't explain the lacklustre performance today but I think good press and some sensible thinking will get the price moving up towards 40 in teh near future. Just saw this in FT and they also think HRG is undervalued. I haven't used strong buy for some time but today's results deserve it. happy to sit on these and I have a lot of them for a long itme and wait for the jackpot: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/167a0e62-68c9-11df-96f1-00144feab49a.html

Very nervous market including for this share. Ash, BA strikes and now the Government clampdown on travel might have an effect. What people forget is the globalness of HRG's operation adn the fact that HRG make the same whther they are selling a first class rail ticket or standard class. In fact themore people need to reduce their travel budgets themore they need the help from TMCs. The reults are due on Thursday dn i expect no surprises, results in line with expectations, some dividend possibly and if taht is the case the price now is afr too low for the fundamentals. Teh real question is what tactic they decide to take in terms of perdictions for the future. They could eitehr say things are really picking up which they definitely are (http://www.traveldaily.co.uk/AsiaPacificNews/Detail.aspx?Section=19078) or they can go for the cautious route and say that there are still many uncertainties to be absolutely sure that we will see a big improvement in the coming year. I expect that they will go for the latter or a mix of both. So would hope we are back above 30 by the end of the week, but depends on overall market sentiment which is not good. And I am still positive that we shoul db e back at 40 before the end of the year, obviously without news on teh ownership front which could happen any time and will drive the price to more than double of what we see today. Good luck for the coming days!

of course I am still here, just been busy and with everything going on including 40% CGT coming up I thought I better do some work as well. I will not even consider selling HRG till we get to 50 and then only small partof my holding. I still think the ownership has to be sorted out and opefully in a takeover or management buyout whcih will see the price between 60 and 80. IT has been a fairly tough period with volcano and strikes but of ocurse HRG gets fees so hopefully kept earning during the ash and vertainly the travel agency community as awhole proved to the world yet again that if you booked anywhere else tehre was nobody to help you get back. I expect the results to be good and the outlook to be even better. US has really taken off and Europe is getting better all the time. Even though the new government is not good for the industry with the focus on increased tax on flying the fact we ahve a government with some stability ( I give it 2 years!) should help. The Spanish situation is a partnership with no equity sharing at all, hence no RNS required. However great move. ECI is the king in the spanish market and much better than Marsans and should help get some good business. They actually were partners in a previous life when HRG was BTI so know each other well, great move. keep teh faith, I know we have been treading water but that is the problem when you are the only company is a sector , not other reults canhelp you and you get dragged down with airlines or leisure operators whoh really have nothing to do with you, but our time will cme, I am convinced of that

Looks like this will go as forecast, we saw the expected dip and things beginning to turn now but still very volatile, some big trades just gone through, wonder if somebody is using the opportunity to change the balance of power amongst the key owners. This has been too quiet for too long and I still don't think HRG can be served with having one of their worset competitors controlling over 20% of their company

Lookslike we could be flying again wednesday and it will get a boost as soon as this i sannounced, no chance of below 30 imo. Talking to the tarvel agents today they are incredibly busy getting their passengers flights, probably not earning what they normally would but still making money on fees.

I think you might be right, we saw a reaction fromthe marekt against the airlines on Friday and it might spread to HRG tomorrow. Once again anything that happens in this world hits the travel industry and we were seeing a real upturn at the moment. I don't expect anything drastic but would be surprised to see or 2 points off and you are right, it will be shortlived and a good entry point. I am keepinga very close eye on the airlines who might drop much more tomorrow but who will be having full flights with higher prices for a long time once they are allowed to fly again. Obviously if this lasts another week we mights ee a more severe reaction. There are a number of reasons why HRG will not be damaged too much: 1) They also sell train tickets and other modes of transport 2) The need for travel agencies will be more clear than previously, anyone who booked direct with airlines or online will have nobody to go to, this is when travel agencies earn their money 3) The agencies get paid even when flights are cancelled as all their money now comes from transaction fees and they get paid for every booking, refund, change etc. 4) HRG is a global company and althoughthey are strongest in Europe their business in USA, Middle East and APAC should not be severely affected. 5) their year end was 31 March so although April should be a strong month teh results for this month will not be announced before May2011 although they may of course enter some comments in their annual report next month Let's see what happens tomorrow and I will also try and check with contacts in the industry how the TMCs are being affected

The business travel market has really taken off. All the indicators that I see through my work and contacts are looking positive and March was a very positive month. The official numbers for the US (which normally are a few months ahead of Uk) shows that the US travel agencies increased transactions in March 14% over last year and 29 percent in. Credit card sales was up 30% which made it the strongest march since 2001. HRG has a strong presence in the USA and USA sets the trends for the rest of the world in recovery and especially in business travel. With the cost base down I am very confident the year end results (end of year 31 march) will be up to expectations and the next year should be a bumper year!

Every time this share approches 30 it seems to be agreat buying opportunity. The things that could cause a dip is the threatened BA strike although in many ways that craetes more work and more fees for HRG. Also there was a troy last week about MOD having to cut their travel budgets after the election and they use HRG, but these are small blips and the general trend in corporate travel is efinitely on the up so I am in no doubt that the results will be fully up to expectations and the predeiction for next year will be positive. Price should be 40 within the next 3 months (alwasy assuming there is no news on takeovers or MBOs where the price should be 60-80)

http://www.iii.co.uk/articles/articledisplay.jsp?section=ShareDealing&article_id=10079166

Thanks, mate. always good when this one is turning upwards. we have been stuck a little but I still see it in the bigger picture so this share is still my big winner taken over the last 15 months, I can see why people would be alittle hesitant buying in here afterthis rise and obviously we are not going to see 500% rise anymore, but doubling from here would be very nice as well. good luck

http://www.sharecast.com/cgi-bin/sharecast/story.cgi?story_id=3286155 At it's worst the market in the UK was down over 20% so 6% is defiitely an improvement

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/articles/20100217/hogg-robinson-sees-early-signs-of-recovery.htm we are getting there, I wish he didn't have to be so cautious but I guess he has no choice, but certainly promising very well for the future and the price has jumped up tis morning. I follow the indsutry closely and january was OK but not great mainly due to the weather, but February is looking fanatstic and this month and March are where HRG really makes money, Easter is not before April this year so wont be in this year's annual results. I think it looks like we will beat forecasts which were already not bad inline with last year.

Yep, I was there, much smaller than last year but I dont think that refelcts the industry so much as the fact that there is now at least one more show competing for the same money. the visitor numbers seemed to beholding up well. HRG had a large stand and activity seemed good. geenrally optimism has returned to the industry but with caution. Heard that some in HRG talked about the fact that there are very few shares in circulation with most of the shares tied up in institutions, the 2 big owners and management and you could add many of us, including staff who wouldn't dream of selling. Something has to give and I am convinced the future ownership of HRG will be resolved this year. Did anyone else go?

Toyota might have had a good reputation for reliability, but nobody in their right mind would buy a toyota now after the recent press coverage. This si going to damge them for years and since Inchcape is a main Toyota dealer it is affecting them. Nothing mysterious about the fall, should recover somewhat as memory of this fiasco fades in some week's time

You are absolutely right, there is no need to ranp this (or in my view ) any other share. The trading is pretty low,mainly because the 2 big guys sit on 44 % and big institutions and management about the same, so there are very few shares freely traded and the big movement will only come when somebdoy decides to go for ownership. However we are 700% above the lows just over a year ago and only now as can be seen in the article from IQU is business travel working it's way out of recession. HRG managed to maintain profits in the most dificult year ever for busines stravel so the future is very bright. the other reason why this is not very heavily traded is because there are no other companies on th enmarket that can be benchmarked against this one and the city simply doesnt understand the corporate tarvel market which is vey specialist and very different from the leisure operators and of course alirlines and hotels. Good day and good week, hopefully we can continue the momentum or maybe this is really the big one, who knows?

my only feeling is that it had gone from 5 to 40 too quickly and there was a fair amount of profit taking from people who maybe like me had waited for the big takeover and that didn't happen felt that 40 was the high fo rthe time being based on results. In my view 50 would also be a fair asessment and I expect improved results an dividends returning in the next statement. The whole trade is picking up. All the rumors about the BA strike and the bad weather didn't help the price either but we aregetting back to a more sensible valuation now

definitely broken away from 30 now and has moved over 4% the last hour. Every time thi shappens I wonder if this is thebog one, takeover or MBO. i f that happens 60-80 p but we have had a few false warnings. However this is proabbly the last time the shares willbe this low so if I was interested in moving in on HRG now would be the time. In any event I am happy to wait and go with the slow climb. Should be above 40 this quarter on pure fundamentals