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http://www.thetransnational.travel/news.php?cid=analysts-bullish-on-business-travel-HRG.Dec-10.08 This report is not too far from my own asessment. 2nd half is always better than firts half so in my view profits should be closer to 35 million, maybe even close to 40 which at 5 times multiple should give a market cap 175-200 million and a SP of around 60. This is without considering future growth which should be considered and without any consideraiton to the takeover scenario. fot any newcomers to this Mr. Van Vlissingen who happens to own one of the main competitors to HRG, namely BCD has a 21% stake in HRG and at some stag ewill have ot decidewhtehr to go for a takeoverbid or get rid of the shares. t is untenable in the long run to keep this posiiton and I know taht it frustrates people both in the BCD and the HRG camp. If he chooses to sell then is the time for HRG to either sell out to DNATA who owns 23% but taht would be a friendly takeover or take the company private again. I am sure the directors of HRG are as frustarted as I am (despite great profits made on this share) that he price doesnt reflect the real value. they are the only company of this type quoted and that means the city is finding it difficult to really put a value. You will in several reports that Holiday break is listed a competitor, pure nonsense but just shows what also the financial press know or rather doesnt know about this sector. I know my words wnt affect the price but comments like the one above may have an affect.

I is hard to believe taht with so much positive comment there has been no movement all day. 1 million share traded but not real trend. There is now clear evidence taht the company is severely undervalued but with so few shares in circulation it is difficult to egta moementum going. Otherwise I really dont understand it. Maybe when the markets get time to asess teh reuslts in more detail soemthing will give omorrow. At the every least I think we have a clear bottom now and it will move upi from here but patience will be required, apparently

very short and sweet interview, David Radcliffe, was in his quiet mood but the numbers speak for themselves. More or less as predicted. Sales up 9% but wiuth cost kept in charge profits up 400%, dividend up 25%, retentian rate good, global operations good and trend continuing into the second half year which is always better anyway. Remember that in this hlaf year we had the ash cloud and BA strikes and still we ares eeing profits of 13million. Prediction for the year slightly better than expected, notlisted anywhere what was expected but I would hope we would be somewhere between 35 and 40 million profit. Company is capitalised at just over 100 million and at 5-6 times profit which is standard in this industry should be nealry double that. Refinancing now in place to 2014 and debt down and they aim to continue this trend every 6 months. The only downside is the pension liability which has gone up due to low interest rates but at least they are confronting the issue and they have long since stopped taking new people into the scheme. Very little movement on price and very little activity. People absorbing results but we are of course already up over 25% the last few weeks. However this should be over 40 very soon and I don't see any reason why it shouldn't continue it's way towards much higher SPs. The profits are back to where they were when the SP was 80. Have a good day!

Interview with CEO at 7.50 on BBC 1, Great to get this featuring, will revert after that with quick analysis of results. Where will teh price land initially?

It doesnt quite work like that. I don't believe HRG will employ anyone new unless they see new business. They hardly touch leisure or VFR so that is not relevant and I think they are manned sufficiently to manage the business they have today. Don't forget that they area very International organisation so what might be low season here is different in for instance Australia. However we know that their second helf year sep-mar is laways the most profitable and October / November have been great in the business travel world and I expect them to say so tomorrow. In terms of results it should be positive, the forecast should be positive with one slight caveat, the reduction in governmanet spending on travel although only part of that will hit them becasue of the tranascation fee system. It does look like somebody knows something as the price has not increased 25% within ashort time without any announcements whatsoever. I would never accuse anyone of insider dealing but the vibe coming out seems to be very good. Sometimes they have followed the mantre, buy on the rumour, sell on the fact so be careful, but I am hoping for good dividend, news on the debt and also some clarification on the pension situation. If we are lucky we might hear more about takeovers or taking the company back provate again. I doubt it but the movements indicate that something interesting should be announced. Good luck to all

very kind of you to enquire about my health, not exactly sure why, but I can confirm that I am doing fine, hope the same is the case with you! Whitespirit, for a company like HRG arranging thetravels for the teams is hardly earthshattering, the real money is having the rights for the tickets which only has one distributor in each counhtry and a number of the tickets has to be sold with packages so tehre could be some real money in that. Not sure if HRG has won the rights in any country but as far as I know not in any of the major markets.

Royal wedding no influence as far as I can see and the same with Olympics. In teh uK fewer peoplle will travel abroad during the olympics but it is already the lowest season for business travel. If HRG was a holiday operator my answer would be different but they are not.

no problem, we are here to help each other. Interesting to see taht we are now frimly in the 34 area where 1 month ago we were firmly entrenched around 27-28. I wonder if either tehre is movement on the takeover front or if tehre are somebody who has had an insight into the results. I would never accuse anyone of insider dealing but it looks like somebody knows that good news is coming and looking at the indsutry figures from the last few months the results ought to be very goodindeed. We have not had any update since the ash cloud which they managed very well so I am beginning to think that reults might be well above expectations. We can only wait and hope.

If you really want the truth it is actually the first half year results and that is normally the worse part of the year covering the slow summer and this year also the ash cloud. What will be interesting besides results which shoudl be at least on par with last year is the forecast as we will be nearly 2 months into the 2nd half and the industry as a whole has had some bumper months, should be bery good news. Last year it was the 29th so expect it to last week of November. Interesting to see the jump in price today, not sure why but we did spend far too long bumping along below 30 and that is now definitely in the past

Interesting article especially last paragraph, sounds like a man that is confident about the future SP: http://www.execdigital.com/business/face-face/interview-david-radcliffe-hrg

The retail business is not my speciality but the death of the agency as it is has been predicted for so long taht i tend to believe there is a still a role, but only if you renew your self. Neutral advice will always be sought and is so difficult to find on the net. I have worked in travel but still I find that whne I try to plan a business trip or holiday myself and only use the net I can end up not getting the best solution or price. There is also a furtuer for the touroperator but it has diminished. There will always be a segment of teh population taht willike everything done for them and a hand to hold if tehre is a problem. The agencies taht have found niches will also survive and finally the companies that have adopted the new technology inclusing packaging software in their onlien booking engines will also survive. TC has moved with the times and have just merged with teh Co-op operation. They have certainly positoned themselves as one of the key players but I am not really confident enough to take a stab at the share price, Good management though. As to the announcemnts today it will not be good for anyone, I feel the follow on consequences of teh cuts have been totally ignored. 1/2 million jobs, millions with cuts in all sorts of support, they all spend money and will spend less which will have arippling effect and increase cost for the government. They say, yes but the private sector will accomodate and create new jobs but of course eery year we have a new generation who finish school and uni and they also need those same jobs, a bot of a mess in opinion and companies who relie on services to government will suffer incuding to a minor extent HRG but I think it has been known for some time and built into teh forecasts and price

While we are waiting for some announcement it is worth noting that from allmy sources corporate travel boomed in September. I am hearing about recordmonths from several different elements ofthe industry and no reason to believe that HRG isn't showing the same. with costs under control and new clients joining thi sis looking extremely well for future rpofits and dividends. This share should be above 50 with the takover bid we are all waiitng for and I agree with New2this that we are looking anywhere between 60 and 80 if a bid is launched

should have topped up this morning , been avery good day for this share

Yes, it just needs another 60% and we are back to where we were jsut over 1 month ago and that was about half of where we were just over a year ago. What a shining star. I wouldn't put any more money into this one.

company take over and shares valued at 51p, they are about 42 just now so should move towards the 51 p once we have a AGN date for the decision to be ratified

Tried to find something on these buys but nothing as yet . Obviously if if was a director buy or one of the big players they would have tomake an announcement if they broke through any new thresholds. The Ericson win is a good one and all in all the price is slowly lowly creeping up. Corporate business in September is holding up very well, just look at the revised profit forecasts for 2010 for the airlines. the only cloud on the horizon just now is the government cuts which obviously will also afffect HRG, but I think they have already planned for those and adjusted staff levels. The good thing is thatthe downgrading from 1st to economy will not have to much effect on the bottom line as the company gets paid fixed transaction fees whatever the value of the ticket (in most cases)

that they could find 50% of shareholders who were willing to invest any more money or at least money on such bad terms as was offered. Ridiculous proposition, I thought they would get less than 10% but there are some born every day. GL

I know you don't post here anymore, hopefully you retired on the back of tremendous profits from investing, miss your comments by the way, but if you are looking in once a while just want to congratulate you on the spectacular reults of SOLG. I am sure you will have held these as you normally do and you were probably in at around 5 as I was. worth 10 times more now and much more to come after the announcement to day confirming the announcement 2 weeks ago. Not sure if you of you were the first to tip this one, of so many thanks but in any event hope you and many others are laughing today, makes up for many IVEs and others!

did not take the offer, I don't even see it as a offer: buy a limited number of shares ata discount of 7% for a share that has dropped over 70% in a few months. i f I really wanted shares and believed in TAN I could buy many more at more or less the same price. That is the pure financial argument for not taking the offer. besides the finances I happen to believe the company has missed the chance to be a frontrunner and the management has shown that they are useless, so wont put any money in here anyway

http://www.breakingtravelnews.com/news/article/hrg-launches-unique-cost-saving-function-for-rail-travel/ Not sure why we are stuck around this price at the moment. All signals from the industry and HRG point upwards but as usual there is no focus on this indutry when things are going well. I guess we have to wait either for the next results or till either the management or one of the 2 main shareholders lose patience with the market and bid eitehr to take it privately or launch a takeover bid. Can't say when that will happen but whne it does (and I am still convinced it will) we will see 2 or 3 times this price when that happens.