Member Info for BuggerTheBanks

Hold your nerve, guys. There is a clear, concerted attack on PM prices which started on Monday afternoon with the dumping of $3B in paper gold contracts. No-one, & I mean NO-ONE is selling physical at this time.

The Dow dumps nearly 2,000 points, there is a global pandemic, the world's biggest economy remains crippled with global supply chains fracturing & yet PMs FALL? Are you ******* ******* me???

Look at where we were on Friday. Hands-up those who think that the markets (& the world generally) are better now than they were at the end of last week.... Exactly: no-one. The REAL economic effects of China's shutdown will start to be felt in the coming weeks. Increasing numbers of companies are warning not only on profits, but on product availability, as Chinese manufacturing shutdowns leave wlth either with no component parts or no product whatsoever. One of these companies is Apple. They don't come much bigger.

The market thinks the Fed will save the day, & yes: they will print, but they can't print vaccines, mend broken supply chains or backfill the production that's already been lost. They're (slowly) starting to recognise this fact.

For years now we have seen the irrational pricing of risk assets. Right now, we are witnessing the irrational clubbing of PM prices. Things that can't go on forever, won't. As I've said before, there are only two ways out of this mess that the global economy is in, & BOTH of them are hugely positive for PMs.

Stand your ground, buy PHYSICAL PMs & GLA.

Carvegyber: hold.
You can thank me later (& buy me a drink when you finally cash-out).

PMs (& by extension, PM miners) are only going one way...& that's up.

This is the start of the (stock market & economic) collapse, so GLA.

REMEMBER: there will come a time to cash-out here & transfer your wealth into PHYSICAL PMs. I can't tell you when that is, but I'd suggest it has a long way to run yet. This is just getting started.

Corona Virus is going to take down global stock markets along with the world economy. Mining stocks & PMs are the place to be for the foreseeable future.

That said, I am a long-time investor here (14 years) & bought a bucket full back when it was 3x pence. I'm prepared to hold & ride this one out, then back-up the truck once I think it's bottomed-out.

Despite the SP taking a beating, the business should prove fairly recession-proof. Anyone with a weak heart should get out (of the entire matket) now.

GLA (as always).

Apologies for replying to my own post (bad etiquette, I know), but metals are off to the races in early trading.

Long may it continue.

With the Mexican Beer Virus running rampant, I can only imagine this bodes VERY well for PM prices in the immediate future &, by extension, the FRES share price.

Once governments move to ban cash (they will claim cash helps to spread the virus), all bets are off.

Just as we have seen new highs in the (US) stock market, so we will see new highs in PMs. The gold-to-silver ratio certainly seems to favour silver ATM, but I'd urge you to look at what happened to the price of both metals approaching (& during) the last crisis.

In the run-up to the GFC, gold continued to rise whilst silver (with far more industrial uses) got clubbed like a baby seal as economies contracted. Then, once fear (& QE) kicks in, watch it motor.

I think both metals are heading much, much higher (magnitudes higher, to be precise), but expect gold will out-perform silver over the near term. Like you however, I will be looking to trade some G for S when I think the time is right.

As always, GLA.

Red knight, I hold GPM too (for the same reason; huge discount to NAV).

Doing rather nicely today, though: up 8%.

PMs really performing well again overnight. This must surely move (higher) at the open, along with others in the sector.

Just took a quick look at BATS for comparison: their total assets are £144B with intangibles of (get this...) £124B! I find that quite astonishing. Makes IMB look good by comparison.

Perhaps this is par for the course in the industry. Maybe someone here with a better understanding of the sector than I have could explain what's going on.

You won't stop the PM price manipulation: the Elite have too much to gain from it. However, from time to time, there does need to be a "showcase" trial to give the impression that something is being done about it as it's pretty apparent what goes on. Until the CRIMEX (sorry: "COMEX - Freudian slip) breaks, or you at least stop the trading of PM contracts on the COMEX, manipulation will continue. Patience, Grasshopper: we will see our day, & on that day, you will get TWO prices for precious metals: the paper price, & the REAL price.

Looking to add to my position here, but a review of the balance sheet shows total assets of around £33B, of which £18B are "intangibles".

So over half of the company's assets are intangible??? That worries me somewhat. I know from personal experience just how easily intangible assets can lose (all of) their value: that would leave IMB with a substantial negative net worth.

I know that intangibles can cover things like brand reputation, good will, etc, but in the (specific) case of IMB, does anyone know just how this (substantial) figure is comprised?

Carvegyber, I'm not sure: we may've already seen it. Earnings multiples in the US (in particular) are stratospheric, & there is the attitude of "bad news is good news". This is the melt-up. Whether it's happening now (as I suspect it is), or whether it's a year away...two years away or whatever, what I am convinced of (& as Nuri123a has already said), is that now is the time to buy (PHYSICAL PMs & mining stocks).

GLA (as always).

Carvegyber, I've been "prepping" for this. Interest rates GLOBALLY will go negative & we will get QE on a scale the like of which the world has never seen.

I believe 2020 is the year. The Fed have been printing DAILY since mid-September. This is positive for PMs. If they stop, the market (& economy) tanks; this is also positive for PMs. There is no way out except money printing & inflation.

Even if the Corona Virus is NOT the huge danger to public health that we fear, damage to supply chains has already been done. The global economy is very fragile, being at the end of the longest bull run in history: it will not survive this shock. This is the black swan event.

Our media is all too willing to tell us about the medical threat posed by the Corona Virus, but what about the risk of an economic shock? Countries around the world have been moving their manufacturing base to China for decades now, & many manufacturers (& even construction companies) operate a JIT business model that is reliant on a steady flow of goods, materials & / or component parts from China. How resilient is the global economy in the event of a China shutdown?

Whilst I'm no expert on this (which is why I'm seeking opinion here), my guess is "not very". Whilst it's very difficult to confirm anything much going on in China ATM, analysis of pollution levels, raw materials demand & even traffic levels would indicate that China is barely functioning. With dozens of cities in lock-down, estimates are that around 400M Chinese people are shut in their homes & not going to work.

I myself have backed a number of KickStarter projects which are being manufactured in China, & over the last 7 days I've had a string of e-mails advising of delays to both production & shipping due to factories being shut down. Whilst the world will keep spinning without the odd KickStarter widget, I'm taking it as indicative of the wider state of affairs in China.

At a guess, I'd say it takes between two to three weeks for sea freight from China to reach Europe / USA. Therefore, ships that departed two weeks ago (before the lockdown) will still be arriving (or are en-route) to Western ports. With no (or at best, very few) ships departing China over the last 10 - 14 days, how quickly do the wheels come off in the West once essential JIT supplies don't turn up???

By extension (& now you see the relevance to we FRES holders), what are the implications for PM miners? My guess is that industrial demand for silver will crater as (safe-haven) demand for gold rises. I'd then expect safe-haven demand for silver to surge as people recognise it as an far more affordable alternative to gold. But, as the virus spreads, how viable will it be to keep mines running (& yes; I'm aware FRES operates mainly in Mexico). This thing is out there & will spread further before things improve. Just how bad it gets is anyone's guess.

My concern is that if the global economy is (effectively) shut-down, mining companies, loaded with debt, may not be able to perform production whilst still being liable to service that debt. Could we see a whole host of mining companies go under???

Yes: Central Banks will print $Ts to mitigate the shock to the stock market, but Federal Reserve Notes will not stop the spread of the virus, cure the sick or bring the dead back to life. And this is another thing to consider....what happens when you combine a huge expansion of the money supply with a dearth of physical goods (rhetorical question).

QQQQ, (industrial) demand for silver will likely fall, but I'd expect safe-haven demand for silver (& certainly for gold) to rise appreciably given the state of the world today.

Gold down £25 p/oz...because (of course) everything is great in the world /s

Remember: there's not one example in all of history of a fiat currency holding its value. NOT ONE! Gold & silver are called "precious" metals for a reason. If they're going to keep driving it down, I'm going to keep on buying.

Silver is an industrial metal. In fact, it is the second most versatile commodity in the world (behind oil). It has applications across a whole swathe of industries. If we'd gone straight into a financial crisis, you'd have seen silver soar as a safe-haven asset. However, as the economy declines, it stands to reason that industrial demand for silver will also fall. In the run-up to the last financial crisis, silver actually fell 30 - 40%. It then went on to rise 350% as fear took hold.

The advent of the Corona Virus clearly makes things different this time (& I've read reports that this thing has actually been bio-engineered), although fear can't be far away. Sit tight & keep some powder dry (if you can): our time is coming.

Yeah: they knocked about 50p an oz off it today alone. Seems crazy, but lets not forget that silver is an industrial metal. I believe copper got clobbered today, too, so if they're expecting a slow down in China (& how can there not be with entire cities quarantined) then that might be a factor. But, yes: "They" love to clobber silver every chance they get & keep it down. It works...until it doesn't. Ride it out, & if you're into physical metals, keep stackin'.

Happy to buy on the way down & pick up a decent dividend in the meantime. Agreed: sentiment is against them ATM, & whilst that puts some people off, I see an opportunity here. Relatively recession-proof, too (if that matters to you).