RE: Hello!10 Jul 2020 12:57
Colonel,
I agree with you except for one thing, & if I'm right, it's good news for all here. I don't ever see gold going back to $1300 p/oz. Or even $1500 p/oz for that matter. You're right: gold traded in a very tight trading range from mid 2016 - mid 2019, & even before that, it was very aggressively capped at $1350, having made multiple attempts to break this level & failed.
As we all know, we finally broke-out of that trading range last year. What fundamentally changes the dynamics now (IMHO) is the unprecedented level of money printing (read "debt creation", as all global currencies are debt-based) that is being undertaken around the world. Even if the virus disappears tomorrow (which it won't), the trillions upon trillions of newly-created debt is here to stay. Indeed: I believe it's only just getting started, & global governments will borrow, & central banks will print, MAGNITUDES MORE.
My personal target for gold is £4000 p/oz (& yes: that's £s & not $s) & £135 p/oz for silver. Whilst that seems crazy ATM, there is actually historical precedent for percentage moves of that scale; we just need to look at what happened during the last financial crisis (when gold rose 450% from 2006 to 2011). The only reason gold pulled-back from its $1920 (2011) peak was because central banks around the world were able to convince everyone that they would unwind QE. There is no way people are going to buy that this time around.
For now, the market is distracted & continues to gorge itself on the torrent of new money that is being pumped into the "economy", but reality, when it dawns, will be harsh & quick. The average investment portfolio ATM has just 1% invested in PMs or PM-related assets. The long-term average is 4%. At the height of the GFC, that rose to 7%. Even if we just return to the long-term average, there is potentially a mountain of money that will be looking for a home in gold, silver, etc.
I defer to your knowledge of Shanta & am very grateful (as are others, I'm sure) for your insightful posts, without which, it's true to say, I would not have invested here. I'm VERY happy to be onboard here (at 12p) & believe the future is very bright. Just keeping some powder dry should we get another March-style pull-back (which I fully expect).
GLA.