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Gary, Shell does, in fact, have substantial investments in Russia apart from their involvement in the Nordstream 2 pipeline. Sakhalin project comes to mind where Gazprom at 50% and Shell roughly 25% but as a company they are well bedded into Russian oil/gas projects.
As I write, European Markets down ca 2xFTSE; Oil, Gas, Gold and other PMs all up; All Base metals up; All Soft Commodities up except Orange Juice and Cocoa...As Gold is still climbing and the US hasn't entered yet we expect more fireworks later.
Impossible to know how the Ukrainian population feel right now but I certainly feel ashamed that the drive by Western countries towards the so-called 'green revolution' has played straight into the hands of those who don't give a fig for such idealistic, drastic, sudden changes. Since 2014 the Russians, Chinese and even India have been building their economies by supplying essential commodities and food staples that the clever West has increasingly ceased to produce. Make no mistake the Russo-Chinese axis doesn't need us whereas we definitely need their gas/oil/wheat... the list goes on. SWIFT, don't make me laugh. The Russians and Chinese have their own alternative to SWIFT and it's backed by Gold - which they've also been assiduously accumulating year by year. I have no problem with the urge to 'green' the planet but not 'immediately' as the incompetent western leaders are attempting. Now we are in a precarious position where unscrupulous dictators hold us at their mercy. Forget nuclear threats. Their possible, probable, sanctions will hurt each and every one of us whereas our sanctions, apart from all out nuclear war, will worry the enemy (for that's what they are) not one jot. So the Ukrainians are to suffer because our leaders instruct us to go green. Will Russia stop at Ukraine? Will China not now invade Taiwan? Will Boris, Biden, Macron be in the front line with our forces against the enemy? Perhaps the penny will now drop among Western powers that yes we do need energy products that 'pollute' and we do need to become more self-sufficient producing the staples of life. If we don't wise up then don't worry about climate change since we will all be extinct before that can seriously affect the planet.
Erratic nature of the market following reports of full scale attack within 48 hrs shown by BP now hitting a days high at 386.26 (as I write) whilst spot gold also hitting days high. Make sense of that.
Hi Mark, the Ukraine conflict puts everybody in uncharted waters within financial circles. For example oil is traded in dollars and dollar transactions might well be sanctioned by Biden against any oil production/sales from Russia. They could still trade with friendly countries in local currency of course but producers such as BP would have, at least, the complication of exchange rates since they would, in theory, also be barred from receiving payment in dollars or any other Western currency from Rosneft. To add to complications the Nordstream 2 pipeline is partially funded by Shell. Russia is already being reported (Reuters) as joking about a massive hike in European gas pricing since the new pipeline was designed to double European supply. The UK is connected to European gas/electricity pricing/supply via interconnectors in the Channel Tunnel so we will be experiencing further price hikes. No one has been competent enough to model Covid -19 correctly let alone the current shenanigans.
POLY 1057 as I write, on increase so UK response to invasion not unduly worrying Russian linked companies. Evraz is even up an incredible 5% atm. Eyes will be turned to US this afternoon for developments.
Germany have kicked off by scrapping the NordStream2 gas pipeline. Major declaration obviously by them with immediate knock-on effects to international energy availability and pricing since Russians will retaliate against Germany by shutting down pipeline via Ukraine.
One of the sanctions being considered by the West is to penalise any Country or Company dealing with Russia - wide ranging to include personnel, microchip and technology supply etc etc. If implemented BP, Polymetal and other Western interests would have to write off all and every Russian involvement. If you thought that Covid-19 was serious well......
earlier a snippet that I heard. Talk is that the UK will 'adjust' it's net-zero targets because of the high energy costs and Russian threats to stop gas supply to Europe etc. Of particular interest is the chatter surrounding opening the North Sea to more oil/gas extraction. Will obviously have to wait and see if these snippets bear fruit but equally obvious are the facts that hitting Russia with sanctions is one thing but Russia can very severely hurt the West with energy withdrawal. What about the latter impact on Russia itself? Well they have an increasingly good friend in China with one third of the World's population to absorb Russian output. Russia and China acting in consort would be shattering I think.
....will be pivotal imo since we should have more idea of the sanctions to be imposed and because the London market usually waits for the US opening to see direction of travel for any stock. Nevertheless it is interesting to compare and contrast (from schooldays) the relative price action of BP vs Polymetal. Both have Russian connections, their respective products are in high demand but the former is currently trading higher while the latter strongly down.
Agree Jakers - international conflict normally favours 2 asset classes in particular - Gold (physical) and tobacco - BATS anyone? BP hovering around crucial £4 level ready to dive or rise on an instant.
Clued - agree that oil atm is a good bet providing not a company heavily exposed to Russia such as BP via Rosneft. Uncertainty with increasing likelihood of actual conflict is holding BP down (and Shell) even when oil price holding high and firm. If deescalation occurs expect rapid increase oil majors. Opposite holds true as well.
4.04 at 0852 as I watch the trading. belief swinging towards Russian invasion with expectations of BP -33%, Oil >$100 and gold continuing to rise whilst US dollar rising vs Euro and Sterling. No early breakfast this am since market swings could happen suddenly and dramatically. BATS performing OK.
From 0800 most shares trading sharply down, probably hangover from hectic trading yesterday. One of few bright sparks was ULVR which upticked steadily whereas divi darling BATS muted. Appears investors unimpressed in today's world with buybacks - preferring cash returns instead.
Market underwhelmed by results so far this morning. trading pretty flat, investors would appear to have expected a 'special divi' at least. 1% increase on divi to 54.45 per qtr not raising much enthusiasm - £32.70 as I write.