Member Info for buffa

Newmont, Barrick, Agnico Eagle all took a dive when US opened. Slow recovery thereafter, nothing significant considering escalation of safe haven physical gold. Uncertainty surrounding Trump tariffs affecting World Markets following US close on Friday. Fill yer boots time or back up the truck as the Americans say.

For anybody expecting Quick returns i would suggest Bitcoin or one of it's bedfellows. Mining on the other hand is a slow and laborious business surrounded by potential pitfalls. Returns are good, longterm, provided you pick the right company etc etc. Like all things in life it's a good idea to educate yourself as much as possible.

The wider investing community rate mining companies on certain levels. They know that explorers generally fail and are high risk with just a hole in the ground. The Big step forward is to actually produce poured gold and ti start earning. From then on it's down to effective management to grow the company and produce a return for shareholders. December should put investors on the path of value creation.

The oil price has always been manipulated - it's called Opec+ , and their is speculation that we could be about to enter a trade war between the US and Opec+ similar to 2020. You'll know that the Saudis, particularly, and Russia (to a lesser extent) can extract oil for peanuts whereas the US needs a much higher price to break even in their Wells and fracking. If it plays out as speculated then it makes a merger/takeover between BP and whoever much more likely to happen just to preserve the strategic importance of western oil majors and to prevent BP crashing. However, if Trump does negotiate with Putin the latter could use the threat of an oil price war against the US to strengthen the Russian position. Regardless I have shifted my opinion to a much greater likelihood of BP being merged whatever and particularly with Shell to prevent a US major from benefitting.

Speculation at moment that Iran has underground tested a nuclear device. What is known is what Iran reported recent 'earthquake' around 4ish richter scale clode to a nuclear facility. Epicentre roughly 10km down. Other factors suggest this 'earthquake' was very 'centred' and not typical of a natural event. Contention is that Israel planning concerted strike 'within 1-2 weeks' against known nuclear processing facilities for obvious reasons which I needn't elaborate on. If contention correct price of oil expected to be $100+ for a limited period. Hopefully all speculation and contention based on fallacies but without doubt geopolitical risks are at an all time high. Dyor.

I am and will remain a LTH of GGP. Am I surprised if Institutions reduce or sell out of this stock 'NO. I watch activities in the US daily and I'm convinced that the large investors expect a major, downward, correction across the board. Then these bodies will snap up their choice at much lower prices. I watched this through many cycles including the crash of covid followed by the massive recovery. I will hold through the next downturn because I can.

Am more concerned at this 'settlement' than most it would seem. If you analyse the figures per claimant the 'reward' per claimant is substantial. I held BP during their eventual 'settlement' in the US and claimants nowhere near the disaster came out the woodwork once BPs capitulation was made public. Zantac was sold across the world so I expect, unfortunately, further substantial, never-ending, death by a thousand settlements. My holding is in red at the moment and am watching situation closely.

Hi Speedy. Agree with your post but would add 2 additional factors. First a mining company only makes money, rather than spending it, when producing end product. In the past too many investors have suffered losses when projects stop or take forever to produce - for a variety of reasons - even though there is enormous potential 'in the ground'. Secondly the big money in global markets is always looking for a quick buck - chip makers are currently all the rage but technology generally had been popular. Mining is a time consuming business in the early stages and has its own risks. Like the oft quoted Rick Rule I invest as early as possible and wait. As he more or less says 'out of 10 such investments 8 might lise but if you can get 1 or 2 that succeed then the reward usually outweighs the losses'. Overall am content to continue holding GGP.

Non-farm payroll data (US) released today at 1.30 showed far fewer new jobs than market estimates. This was a further nail in coffin of US growth outlook. Pound immediately rallied strongly vs dollar which is not good for oil companies working in dollars. Also reinforces recession fears in US highlighted by Powell recently predicting rate cuts this month (advance knowledge of weak economic outlook). Since no rate cuts expected in UK outlook is for continuing strength if pound vs dollar. Would expect weaker oil prices going forward in step with weaker economic data.

If only the BoD could get the SP down to say

More to the point what are the chances of a significant rise in SP anytime soon? One of the many indicators I monitor is the level of insider buying (they should know more than me re health of Company?). The BoD don't seem that enthused atm. Any thoughts?

Over many years I have had personal experience how risky all mining operations are and that most exploration outfits come to nothing. ADT1 is having it's problems as we know. Something I'm sure many investors are aware of is the shortage of silver (check it out for yourself) and potential future demand. We know about silver/solar increasing demand but are we aware of the Samsung solid state ev batteries (based on silver) which have been undergoing trials last six months amongst certain car companies. All indicators are that this technology will overcome many of the current ev drawbacks (distance/charge + charging time). Problems primarily cost + charging infrastructure). Of interest to me is the fact that China wants to control ev market, has suitable charging ability for solid state rapid charging now and has been stockpiling silver for some time. China has a track record of being able to bring down production costs far better than competitors. Will all this happen tomorrow - NO. but we know that the World is in a hurry to mass produce EVs that people will want to buy. I continue to accumulate silver producers (rare animals) but dyor.

I am fully aware that my view is personal but for anybody who wants to see and be informed what is really happening in the markets I would recommend the free daily analysis by Gareth

Soloway. He is one of the most successful traders in the US and I'm aware that their market directly affects the Western World markets. Judging by some comments posted on our boards I think many will be better informed.

...benefitted arms companies enormously but has had no observable fact, to me, on oil prices. An old maxim is that recession and the risk of one produces war - we have a number at present with distinct risk of more to come. During the recent rise in the S&P/Nasdaq the oil price declined on a daily basis - another recession indicator. Dollar weakness is illustrated by cable at 1.31 and gold at all time highs. This is compounded by the Fed talking up rate cuts which indicates they at least see trouble ahead etc etc I could expand but this illustrates my point that yes BP is undervalued imo but I've been saying that for ages. Buybacks have been consistently large but haven't improved SP (where would SP be without them?). So at present I sit on the sidelines expecting global recession within 6 months and further declines in the markets with a potential drop to ca £2ish for BP OR I'm completely wrong, everything is suddenly sunlit uplands and BP exceeds £5, cable drops and restores 5%+ dividend and the march of renewables slackers. I have not seen such a quandary since Covid.

I always welcome constructive points of view so thanks. However we have had a serious war in Ukraine for some time which has benefitt

Have been in and out BP for many years and with the SP at 2 year lows am tempted to reinvest again. However my ongoing concerns are manifold - including weak dollar, geopolitical risks and recession risks accelerating - all of which would have negative effects on SP.

I am an investor but use charting techniques to assist decisions to purchase. Last Friday BP ended with an engulfing reversal candle - taken to be a bear signal which was confirmed on Monday and added to today. Meanwhile BP has formed a distinct head and shoulders pattern which, if confirmed by the end of tomorrow, is an indicator of significant further downside. I would stress that there are very few LSE traded shares that have the size of Market Cap to apply technical analysis to - BP being one of them. As an aside, interesting that the decline in SP here began on Friday. Could almost believe a case of foreknowledge.

Although the overwhelming consensus on this board appears to be for a yes vote I am not so sure because the % required is extremely high. I personally voted no but not too bothered either way. Having said that I would welcome the TO failing since I have belief in DARK technology and the massively growing need for it - and I believe the TO offer to be very low-ball opportunistic.

Board, I disagree for 2 reasons. 1. Gordon Brown advertised the sale of the gold in advance which is a no-no in central bank sales/purchases. The metals markets still refer to this mistake as the 'Brown Bottom' for gold and 2. The compound return since 1999 has been over 9% which beats treasuries etc. Following is extracted from curvo.eu website but can be confirmed on multiple platforms:- the 25 years between January 1999 and April 2024, the Gold spot price index (in GBP) had a compound annual growth rate of 9.84%, a standard deviation of 16.42%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.56.

Compound annual growth rate

9.84%

Hi speedy. Just a footnote re Japan. They have recently been selling some of their dollar holdings to prop up the yen vs the dollar. It seems this will have to be repeated since first tranche still led to yen falling.