Member Info for buffa

Hi Meoryou, delay replying - somewhat busy this pm. Yes I would obviously keep purchasing BP if divi kept pace with an increasing SP as you suggest. However BP appear to be committed to current divi + 4% pa uplift which is pitiful considering vast profits being made by them and, I would contend, to be continuing to be made for at least the next decade. Unfortunately as I have steadfastly maintained the shareholder value of a mega oiler for some time to come is being constrained by political pressures. Any other company would have been paying a lot of their excess cash, at these levels, back to shareholders as special divis whatever. Time will tell.

Markgo - thanks for your input, investors can never have enough info or hard data in order to make investing decisions. As a long term investor in BP I recall the days of Ted Heath and the 3-day week with energy blackouts in the UK - but that was down to union action (Scargill et al) not energy scarcity. I was watching the market at 08.00 when the trading in BP post results began, yesterday. Very quickly the price rose to ca 418 at which point the traders of J P Morgan etc began selling the price down to finish the day below 400. But the initial pump and dump was rapid so that the traders could pocket all their profit before morning tea break. I firmly believe in the adage 'put your money where your mouth is' and I do so at £4 I am a buyer of BP but at £5 I am a seller since the divi will no longer be at benchmark 4% (according to BP). I fully agree that both Shell and BP results are fantastic - for them. Unfortunately since I don't believe the SP will hold above £5 PI's will only benefit from the 4% divi (which is GOOD) provided they bought in at £4 or less. On the other hand if the 'Expert Analysts' really believed their SP forecasts why aren't they putting their money where there analysis is in expectation of a 50% uplift? If anybody, themselves included, believed, for one moment, that SP will increase dramatically as they predict then BP would not be languishing at the magical 405p (4% divi) point on my screen as I pen this. I still hold, results fantastic (although predictable - except by analysts!), great company without doubt but of little use to investors expoecting massive SP uplift - all, of course, imho.

'Expert Analysts' 430p-630p range methinks proves my point.

The point I am making is that Energy shares, in the current and foreseeable future, are heavily affected by massively increasing cost of living (energy prices) concerns which, in turn affect politicians futures. BP/Shell fully aware that large cash returns to holders would attract adverse public opinion and, consequently, windfall taxes etc. That is why these mega companies are restricting divis - even going forward - and ploughing cash back into their companies with their PR stating for politically acceptable 'renewable investment'. As for analysts predictions - I have outlined a number in other chats which frankly show most to be no better than anything you or I could put out. If you go back to 2008 or whatever to make comparisons with current SP of oilers then you unfortunately miss the point - there was no energy (cost of living) concerns weighing on the share valuations. Must admit I expected a flurry of adverse reactions to my post but continuing massive cost of living hikes due to energy pricing will be the restraint on BP/Shell share price. Time will tell if JP Morgan et al or I am right. I continue to hold with eyes wide open and brain engaged to overarching political realities.

IMHO BP is all about the dividend - currently ca 4% (16p/pa vs £4.00 per share). Provided that this level of divi can be maintained then investors will hold. IMHO BP is not about a HIGH oil price since oil is a political football and Shell/BP know better than to reward investors with high payouts even though, at current profit levels, 'ordinary' shares would have returned large portions of excess cash as 'special' divis. BP has reiterated that future divis will be held at current levels + 4% ie from current 16p/pa to 16.64p/pa. Even at higher oil price levels and even bigger profits BP will reinvest the excess cash into the business - particularly loss-making renewables (think long-term payback) - not to investors. But, will expanding profits increase share price? Again IMHO it will have 'transitory' effect on share price because of the political pressures, preventing xs cash direct to holders, and also if the share price expands significantly above £4 then actual divi will fall below 4% which, in itself, will reduce the attraction for dividend investors who constitute significant investor base. I continue to hold but am wary of any exuberant price movements.

Have held BP since the heady days when their shares were a staple of all pension funds because of their safety, market dominance and reliable strong dividend payments. Today a different world and wondering if the Whitehall clamour will force a weak PM to act on a windfall or not - pretty sure that Starmer would do so and they are in pole position to take the next GE. Meanwhile I'm sure that BP with their bigger brains know best but I would have been tempted to invest 'free cash' in purchasing an up and running green energy producer, SSE (bigger divi than BP), rather than speculating in junior technologies. Still holding BP in the hope that they will use their profits wisely but their 'free cash' must be increasingly tempting to a government in debt crisis.

What a coincidence. Just a few minutes ago I picked up a Reuters message regarding Putin's meeting with the Chinese., One of their comments is...'The Kremlin said the presidents also discussed the need to broaden trade in national currencies because of unpredictability surrounding the use of the dollar'. Reuters also report that..."The Russian side reaffirms its support for the One-China principle, confirms that Taiwan is an inalienable part of China, and opposes any forms of independence of Taiwan," the joint statement said. Oh so predictable. Come on NATO what are you going to do now and as for the dollar don't worry Biden has it under control!!!!

Many professional geopolitical analysts would agree that 'it doesn't make sense for Russia to invade the Ukraine'. Many reasons are put forward in support of this view such as.....they don't need to invade if by that you mean take over a country and its entire population (most of who are antagonistic to Russia). All they need to do is take out the Ukrainian army/weaponry which could be done from their current positions with rocketry etc. Ah, but what about NATO? Yes, what about NATO? What could NATO do, if anything, to prevent a swift, 2-week, attack to destroy Ukraine's armed threat? Russia would have demonstrated that they could, and would, strike at will to prevent a militarised Ukraine close to their Crimean fleet. China meanwhile will have had demonstrated the weakness of the Western Alliance and felt confident to actually invade Taiwan. The Russians and Chinese are simply exploiting the weakness of a post-pandemic West.

Which are the worlds strongest economies at the moment? Certainly not the US with 'reserve' currency that harbours a $30 trillion debt. Ever since Nixon took the dollar off the Gold standard fiat currencies have ballooned leading to the current situation where the faith in paper currency is at an all-time low giving rise to the birth of cryptocurrencies. Problem with all cryptos however is buying and selling them - with what? With fiat currency bits of paper? Enter the W.orlds leading economies China and Russia. Both countries have sold down their dollar reserves whilst buying physical gold. Both trade with each other and some other countries without using dollar transactions. China has experimented with a CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency). Putin has stated that Russia is well placed to replace the dollar with a 'crypto' currency (here I read CBDC). What if Russia and China agree a joint CBDC backed by physical gold so that anyone wishing to, say, buy gas, oil, rare earth elements let alone all the mass produced items already sold to the rest of the World - but in exchange for their CBDC? As I say, Just a thought.....

The more you explore how wrong so-called 'experts' are at predicting anything whether it be covid deaths, inflation, interest rate changes, Brexit outcome, election results or even the 'value' of individual shares the more you realise what a bunch of highly paid idiots they are. But let's stick with POLY at the moment. Their core business is digging money (i.e Gold) out of the ground. What's not to like about that? Particularly with a dividend edging close to 10% - when A J Bell is encouraging me to invest in fixed term bonds paying 1.75% pa with inflation over 5%!

Market Cap of ca £1.2bn makes this a prime target for US hot money seeking a safer haven once they realise the future folly of investing in growth stocks particularly in the States. CURY were being touted as a potential target at £1.40 per share so with every decline they become more attractive - regardless of pension deficits etc.

My reading, for what it's worth, is that the West have little or no interest in the fate of Ukraine - which is very unfortunate for its population to put it mildly. First possible sanctions - oil/gas is a non-starter primarily because the EU (read Germany) depend on Russian gas for most of their supply and the shortage of oil, coupled with current high prices and more to come, would hit the Western economies into stagflation. SWIFT sanctions have been quietly dropped since the EU cannot commit to this. It is well researched that Putin has his private wealth protected from any foreign actions so that is a non-starter. However, Putin has highlighted the weakness of the Western economy leading to problems within the so-called NATO Alliance and even within member States of the EU itself. Overall the West cannot afford a trade war whilst Russia is quite happy to trade with China.

Reuters report that the China Gold Association have declared that in 2021 their gold production fell by 10% to 329 tonnes. However its gold consumption rose 36.5% to 1121 tonnes - ca 12% higher than 2019. China, Russia and India are the largest buyers of gold and it is suggested that the Chinese and Russians are heavily building reserves of gold in order to challenge the dollar as the reserve currency (dollar reserves have been sold down aggressively by both Countries in recent years). POLY reports that their gold output is purchased primarily by Russia and China. Interesting times ahead.

Interesting Results Webinar. AISC increase not unexpected due to worldwide economic/supply chain issues. All companies will suffer similar increases. On the other hand these increases globally will strongly affect inflation which, in turn, should increase gold price now that crypto has been shown not to be a store of value. Dividend expected to be in line with previous guidance - excellent. Any potential sanctions imposed if Russia invade will not materially affect POLY since they now source from non-US/Western countries and sales are with Russia and China particularly. No exposure to US dollars. Going forward expecting increased gold production, for some years ahead, and a trimming back of costs. Overall very impressed with management of POLY and my main concerns re possible sanctions put to rest particularly since Company have been positioning for just such scenario since 2014!! Short term I expect the knee-jerk investment community to drive share price down and I await best opportunity to buy in.

Would be surprised if any bid from ULVR accepted since, I'm told, £50bn is the 3rd bid from ULVR and latter now attempting to raise cash from banks - not good news in time of rising interest rates. Noticeable drop in share price already this morning since day traders already pulling out. Eventually - who knows when - expect those with deep pockets (US investors) to take this prize but doubt less than £60bn. Whole exercise, releasing ULVR interest etc, imo is GSK waking up possible bidders for this split off. Hold both shares at the moment and will wait as things develop.

First, interesting that this bid info now suddenly in public domain - in whose interest? GSK obviously since indicates level of interest to rest of potential bidders and, if bid appears >£60bn then would be accepted by GSK and saves costs of splitting Company as planned. ULVR cannot afford bid higher than ca £50bn without loan support - in era of rising interest rates. Not good news for ULVR investors. Any successful bid for GSK, from whoever, would take time to complete so share prices for both ULVR and GSK liable to shift. Hold both these myself and would not reinvest in either at the moment - unless ULVR drop bid approach and still fall sub £35. Interesting to see though as the FTSE needs a good shake-up if only to let the US market know that we exist!

Looking forward to great things from this Company which ticks many boxes in an era of rising interest rates, particularly since their share buyback scheme commences with such a low share price - all to the good. Will be buying these shares at every opportunity whilst price dropping.

Buffettology advises...'be greedy when the rest are fearful'......or words to that effect. predicted 1.5 Moz gold production at AISC of less than $1000/oz gives Poly ca $1.5bn. Not too dusty imo. Theory also dictates that decreasing value of dollar and rising interest rates must increase gold price. Waiting for bumper divi. Meantime, as Rick Rule might say..'I look forward to the share price falling even more since I can then buy more'.... By the way this Company is UK listed and headquartered in Cyprus - the mines are in Russia and Kazakhstan so am not overly concerned at East West politics.

Will be interestlng to see how the US market interprets results when they open - particularly considering vast number of day traders keen to make a quick buck FOMO.

BP have a substantial trading division which, for example, may have sold future gas contracts well below the prices being reached now so, on paper, facing substantial loss unless gas prices fall before future delivery. SP still falling - now through 349.