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Fruits ..yes, if it is possible to take a detached view of the pandemic, I have found it fascinating. The explosive rate at which the science around the virus, vaccines and possible therapeutic approaches to its treatment is mind blowing to an old codger like me.

Synairgen were right in the zone when the pandemic started and, taking account of the size of the company, have made remarkable progress since. People who complain about the “delays“ in the completion of SG018 just don’t understand the enormity of the task and the years that such a study would normally take to complete; a delay of a very few weeks Is almost an irrelevance.

There is nothing that I have read about the nature of the virus, it’s mode of action, the importance of interferons and, more recently, the role of auto antibodies that makes me less than wholly convinced of of the argument that “it (i.e. SNG001) works”.

We have a lot to thank contributors and commentators - here and elsewhere - like WedME, pmjh, Casanova and even our old friend Dr Mary for.

We are approaching the end-game now. The next few weeks are going to be exciting – hopefully in a good way - not only for those of us invested in Synairgen but also for the patients who stand to benefit from a truly transformational therapeutic.

Oil …. dodged that one too!

Fruits. I am old enough to remember Thalidomide. By the grace of God I never prescribed it.

I thought it was a bit of irresponsible journalism from a usually excellent Nick Robinson. Not a health journalist, though. The BBC health pros would not have touched that with z barge pole.

Molnupiravir - it was named but no mention of the potential teratogenicity of the drug or the consequent hurdles to faces getting approval here - or anywhere.

SG016 announced last recruit dosed on 28 May last year. Last patient’s last visit would have been 28 days later, so around 25 June. High level results were famously the subject of an RNS on 20 July; total elapsed time from last patient recruited around seven and a bit weeks.

Sprinter is bigger and multi-national in character but SNG now have major study collaborators in Parexel. Data gathering and cleaning will have been ongoing throughout the study. The analytical templates will be in place. Only the impact of the festive season mitigates in favour of a delay beyond 7-8 weeks from the date of last patient recruited.

All in all, I don’t think that results will be later than mid-January.

… breached!

The basic science adds up; the analyses and discussions in review papers are favorable; the clinical P2 study demonstrated safety and a strong efficacy signal. What’s not to like?

It’s all about the P3 data now and, perhaps less critically, the outcome of ACTIV-2.

A day of excellent insightful posts with minimal dross. Thank you!

In the summer of 2001, I visited NY and, as guests of the young son of friends there visited his place of work - the World Trade Center. This would have been in early August. I foolishly offered to buy a round of drinks in the Window on the World bar-restaurant on the top floor of one of the towers. Eye-watering price and I remember thinking that I wouldn’t be doing this again in a hurry. How prophetic. Our young friend was at work in the WTC on the fateful day but, thank god, made it out with minutes to spare. So many didn’t including 340 brave firefighters who put themselves in harm’s way to try to save others. Puts things in perspective.

COVID has facilitated the Phase 2/3 development of SNG001 in less than 18 months - a remarkable achievement compared to the years it would have taken to recruit to a P3 study in normal circumstances. Even if SNG001 never found a niche in the treatment of COVID (a vanishingly unlikely scenario, in my opinion) it would have a role in the treatment of respiratory viral infections in the elderly, the immunocompromised and those with co-morbidities like COPD and asthma for decades to come. Drugs in development specifically for the treatment of COVID, eg mabs, are, by comparison, one-trick ponies. Any “COVID-dividend” is, from an investment perspective, icing on the cake.

Doc 83 - whether intentional or not, your post reads as implied criticism of the company on 2 counts.

With regard to your point about the small sample size in the phase 2 study, Perhaps you could do some research on the purpose and aims of P2 studies and the factors dictating their sample size.

Regarding news, we all look forward to receiving news when there is meaningful news to be received.

mattw007 - Indeed! My calculation was deliberately based on very conservative assumptions but you are right. Long hospital stays, particularly in ICU certainly keep the meter spinning at a rapid rate of knots.

The health economic test for any intervention is quite a complex thing to compute but you can work wonders with the back of an envelope. For starters, you can’t think about it in terms of a single patient’s experience but in terms of the outcome in a population of treated individuals. So, at £2200 a pop, treating say 100 people would cost £220k. What you get for that spend is firstly the savings in other healthcare spend, secondly the improved health and/or death prevented as a result of the treat ment, and thirdly the restored productive output (if any) of the individuals treated. This latter may be lower or nil in the case of economically inactive people like those who are retired. At £200-300 per day hospital costs or 4+ times that for ITU, even taking a crude and conservatively estimated average of £800 per day hospital costs and a mean reduction of hospital stay of 2 days you get a gross saving of £160k . And that is before you count the benefit conferred in terms of health on 100 people. Taking (hopefully) deaths prevented and chances of developing long Covid reduced you easily justify the residual £60k. One quality-adjusted life year (QALY) is currently valued at around £30k by health economists and national drug regulators in testing whether a drug represents value for money. Just conferring 2 additional years of life on just one of the 100 patients would be enough to “break-even” using these figures. Even if all of these numbers end up being a bit wide of the mark, and they are all more likely to be conservative than ambitious, the economic analysis is bound to come out in justification of this price in my opinion. At $3000 or £2200 per treatment course SNG001 is a no- brainer in value for money terms.

Doc, I agree. I am not knocking vaccines at all but emphasizing the potential for vaccine escape and the ongoing need for therapeutic. We need all the window cleaners we can get!

Just had our windows cleaned this morning.
The window cleaner is a great guy - super-fit, up and down ladders all day, gym, outdoor running, youth football coach. All-in-all,in the prime of his life.
Double vaccinated, along with all those eligible in the household. The whole household tested positive and, apart from a 10-year old, had symptoms although no one was as ill as he was.
He has just returned to work after 5 weeks off, including a spell in hospital. Lung consolidation, coughing blood, etc. He looks awful and says he wouldn’t be back to work but for the fact that, as a self-employed guy, no work equals no pay.
Makes you think.

We are so far behind because, within ACTIV-2 P2, selection of patients for the SNG001 arm was restricted to patients with mild symptoms. The inference taken by many attending physicians would be that this product was not likely to be as efficacious as other drugs in the study, leading to a resistance to referral of patients into the study. That, perhaps coupled with.supply issues restricting access to drug, placebo and/or consumables, may have contributed to a less-than warp-speed study.

…. And a couple of deleted centres. Housekeeping, I think.

Why add a new centre in the UK if the recruitment here is “complete”? I think this is a clear indication that recruitment is ongoing across the board, picking up numbers wherever possible. A good sign, IMO.

Less is more. Long may the absence of nut-jobs continue!

Please forgive this off-topic post. I have been unable to access the Synairgen subreddit chat room this evening and wondered whether there is a systematic problem (perhaps linked to the day’s excitement) or it’s just me. Anybody know anything about Reddit Synairgen chatroom being down?