Member Info for Brysoa

Is that the sound of a penny dropping I hear?

Theboyg: “ The Q2 was ridiculous timing! Results in. Country in full lock down! ”
Calm down! Last patient last visit in 4 weeks time so the clock doesn’t start until then. Results of the first leg of SG016 were published on 20 July last year 3 weeks after LPLV. That’s the appropriate benchmark here. That means mid March. No earlier, possibly a little later.

Based on form, I would say, yes.
Southampton, UK - 28 May 2020: Synairgen plc (LSE: SNG), the respiratory drug discovery and development company, is pleased to announce that recruitment of 100 hospitalised patients in its clinical trial of SNG001 (inhaled formulation of interferon-beta-1a) in COVID-19 patients has now been completed.

The health economic test for any intervention is quite a complex thing to compute but you can work wonders with the back of an envelope. For starters, you can’t think about it in terms of a single patient’s experience but in terms of the outcome in a population of treated individuals. So, at £2200 a pop, treating say 100 people would cost £220k. What you get for that spend is firstly the savings in other healthcare spend, secondly the improved health and/or death prevented as a result of the treatment, and thirdly the restored productive output (if any) of the individuals treated. This may be lower or nil in the case of economically inactive people like those who are retired. At £200-300 per day hospital costs or 4+ times that for ITU, even taking a crude and conservatively estimated average of £800 per day hospital costs and a mean reduction of hospital stay of 2 days you get a gross saving of £160k . And that is before you count the benefit conferred in terms of health on 100 people. Taking (hopefully) deaths prevented and chances of developing long Covid reduced you easily justify the residual £60k. One quality-adjusted life year (QALY) is currently valued at around £30k by health economists and national drug regulators in testing whether a drug represents value for money. Just conferring 2 additional years of life on just one of the 100 patients would be enough to “break-even” using these figures. Even if all of these numbers end up being a bit wide of the mark, and they are all more likely to be conservative than ambitious, the economic analysis is bound to come out in justification of this price in my opinion. At $3000 or £2200 per treatment course SNG001 is a no- brainer in value for money terms.

It means that there is a good chance that immunity conferred by vaccination OR BY PREVIOUS INFECTION WITH THE EARLIER STRAIN(S) of the vaccine won’t work against the new strain. So, we go straight down a snake to square 1. Yes it will be possible to re-jig the vaccines but this takes development, production and roll-out time.

Zephi, the world has been playing catch-up with the SARS-COV 2 virus for a year now and, despite the emergence of a plethora of vaccines, is continuing to do so. Yes, high and repeated uptake of effective vaccines will control the spread of the disease to a large degree. Note the key words here: high, repeated, effective and control. This will not eradicate the virus and, like the flu virus it will duck and dive seeking emerging weak points in our defences. It is almost certain that there will be an ongoing incidence of cases for a very long time - working assumption: forever. Five percent of incident cases will be severe and require anti-viral treatment, many in hospital. State of the art treatment leaves much to be desired. It is to be believed that SNG001 offers a significant advance in treatment, perhaps reducing by 80% the number of patients requiring ventilation and promoting early and full recovery. So, if vaccination prevents the majority of people from contracting Covid, a minority of 7 billion people is still a lot of people who could stand to benefit from effective treatments, hopefully including SNG001. Hope this helps!

I tend to agree with DerbyCounter. Plenty of churn around current sp level until there is some real news. I think this will come much sooner than the scheduled completion date for P3 in the summer, though. If SNG001 is as effective as it is expected to be, this should should show through at interim evaluation and either the trial will be stopped or EUA implemented. A consideration might me drug availability. Startling efficacy and low availability is not a good look. In these circumstances, would EUA be withheld pending manufacture catch-up?

Will I reach my average price paid (190) today? Probably not. Does it matter? Definitely not!

Since I came upon Synairgen and SNG001 six months ago (sadly not as early in the story as I might have wished) I have read nothing in my research, and in particular on this panel, or in the conduct of the company and its management that makes me doubt the case for this as a credible prospect for Covid and other respiratory viral infections. Posts here in my view tend to fall mostly into 2 categories: (a) measured, well thought through and well researched contributions that are unanimously positive in their sentiment and (b) ill informed rants that, for whatever reason, take a negative view. Even over this weekend a number of developments in the background to the pandemic and the emergence of other treatments reinforce my view that my investment here is wise. No drug discovery venture can be a 100% certainty. This one is, in my opinion as close as it gets to that.

Two key messages from Professor Holmes in his Medscape interview with Eric Topol:

1. “.“ I would put money on this being an endemic respiratory virus. Absolutely. Even if we rolled out the best vaccine coverage program ever, we're not going to vaccinate everybody. We can't do it simultaneously. The virus will evolve fast enough to keep itself going, and they'll reenter the susceptible class. I think it's endemic. Absolutely.”

2. “ Finally — and this is really difficult, like an Apollo project— we need to have stockpiled in our freezers broad-acting antivirals and potentially vaccines that can recognize a whole span of coronaviruses or influenza viruses. I'm not into prediction, but I think it's pretty obvious that there is a set of viruses that are particularly jumpy and that are likely to emerge in the future.”

Even in a pandemic, the Christmas - New Year fortnight is not a good time to start up a new initiative, particularly one as complex as a multinational clinical trial. So I think we are still just about in “imminent” territory. Yes, first dosing will be the subject of an RNS without doubt. When? Hedging my bets I reckon either tomorrow morning or Tuesday next week. Anything beyond that suggest a new factor not envisaged at the time of the 18 December RNS.

Trials are run by dedicated staff recruited, employed and paid by the company running the trial - Synairgen’s agent company in this case. The impact on NHS staff or equivalent elsewhere should be quite limited.

It’s good to see so many of the regulars here in jocular mood this morning. Why could that be?

Chippy54 “ Question; do they have to release a RNS for 1st dosing? I believe they are already in the process of dosing.”. Yes they do. On what evidence is your belief based?

The debate about the level of profit on treatments, while amusing and somewhat encouraging, misses the key point. Which is that, subject to the results we expect from the p3 trial, SNG001 will have a proper name, will be being marketed and Synairgen will have made the transition into a company with a revenue stream, hopefully this side of Easter. While it’s fun to speculate about the degree of success that the company is set to enjoy, it is this absolute transition that is key. It will be a great day indeed if/when p3 results validate the hard work of the company’s personnel and the faith of its loyal shareholders.

Sorry to hear this. On the face of it your GPS position is unreasonable snd indefensible. If it were me I would threaten all sorts of consequences if he/she persists in obstruction without reason. I would also get back to Synairgen to try to seek their assistance. The problem you have is that the clock is ticking on your eligibility for inclusion and I guess you aren’t feeling too chipper or up for a fight at present. Other avenues/sources of support: your MP, media, threat of GMC involvement, etc but all involve time and energy. Get well soon!

It’ll have to get a move on. If it appears after Thursday it will be COVID-21!

I seem to recall that this was amended to 7 days. In any case it is easy to jump onto the trial website, answer a few questions and presumably get an answer there and then about eligibility. I did a partial dummy run, trying to confirm whether the trial was still open but chivkened out before the bit where I needed to put in personal details - name, etc.

Any doctor will tell you that tingling fingers and an elevated heart rate, if not caused by thinking of Eva, are classical features of a panic attack. I think that this is almost certainly a classic case of group hysteria and nothing to do with the vaccine. But in the super--risk averse health care system (and I mean averse to the risk of legal actions) this response is predictable.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/14/coronavirus-relief-therapeutics-shares-have-soared-38000percent-in-2020.html