Member Info for Brondby

Our posts overlapped Oapk20. I see you have the same paper.

Oapk20

Rob (or Allan) may be thinking about this paper:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5441127/

"For set 1, mean CIZ1b level in individuals without diagnosed tumours established a threshold that correctly classified 98% of small cell lung cancers (SCLC) and non-SCLC patients (receiver operator characteristic AUC 0.958). Within set 2, comparison of stage 1 non-SCLC with asymptomatic age-matched smokers, or individuals with benign lung nodules, correctly classified 95% of patients (AUCs 0.913, 0.905), with overall specificity of 76%, and 71% respectively. Moreover, using the mean of controls in set 1, we achieved 95% sensitivity among stage 1 non-SCLC patients in set 2 with 74% specificity, demonstrating the robustness of the classification. Thus, CIZ1b performs with clinically useful accuracy, and could potentially satisfy the unmet need for a circulating biomarker for early detection of lung cancer"

This is of course relating to lab work, and not the automated test platform, and a lot has been done since to allow an automated platform to be used, not least, the "alternative high-throughput assay formats for CIZ1B" notes as a breakthrough in the Aug 10th RNS last year.

The accuracy of the automated test is yet to be shown in the Corepath trials, but it is important to note that an LDT does not need to have a certain accuracy, it only needs to perform within its stated parameters (obviously the more accurate the better, and more clinically useful it is, but its not a case of "sorry its not 90% accurate, so no LDT accreditation is given"). I think this reduces risk and also allows it to be improved incrementally over time if necessary (with new trials)

Techtonic.

Hoping for the big one, in an offer to buy the company.

I'm not waiting on one RNS, but several in the coming weeks:

- LDT corepath, and subsequently

- NHS update

- China update

- Point of care test

"Dr Coverley will be knocking on the door of the next product"

"We are going to be doing that at the same time"

"That will be for another interview"

"A lot more to tell you about, at the right time"

"Chapter 2 coming up"

- Extension to other cancers

And of course, hoping for the big RNS on top of those 😉

Https://twitter.com/CorePath/status/1750916522678141064?t=HqFa8OwLdUdV8KNFm0TXwQ&s=19

"We can't wait to connect with you in downtown Austin, Texas!

Join us next weekend (Feb. 2-4) for the 103rd Annual Meeting of the Texas Society of Pathologists. We'll be in the Exhibit Hall at Booth #26, ready to showcase our cutting-edge cancer diagnostic services and programs."

Would be nice if they had some new cutting-edge cancer diagnostic service to talk about.

Its up 25%YTD and up 60% on 1 year, albeit with a lot of up and down on the way! But that pretty good in this market.

A couple of years ago this would have been flying at this stage of development. But overall market sentiment just isn't there. There is little profit to be reinvested.

£70k :-)

A few things make me more positive on ciz's prospects versus obd

1 - ciz1b research/trials go back many years already, so these latest trials are more about proving the current LDT will work as specified

2 - obd has much higher cost base. Ciz is almost a virtual company that spends about £70 per month

3 - we have a global partner in Biotechne, who will be very keen to see wider roll out for their own benefit

4 - the LDT is, I think, a first step enabler. Suspect NHS and fitting in with existing screening programmes becomes more credidible once scalable platform is proven

5 - ciz are currently MC £9m. There a lot of headroom on that even with obstacles to overcome. As of today, despite its publicised problems, obd is x4 our market cap.

But yes, there are always other obstacles which agaon makesme thi

Hi VincentVega,

It will impact all LDTs in the future (assuming it happens, as there is a consultation ongoing)

The timetable is years however, so very unlikely to impact our current test.

See 3:30 in this for a timetable:

https://youtu.be/EHpsjqxShFY?si=IuMLOV68vlahaOzM

The bid is rising. They need shares. That is likely why the ask is not being dropped.

I agree with Techtonic that any buyout price is likely to be lower than the multiple £s some on here hope, and will be determined by the motivations of our major shsreholders. The universities will want ongoing research deals - no problem there I think, York are best placed to continue this work, whoever owns the company. The cancer research investors will want the test out there as fast as possible, and the kudos of having helped achieve this. Prof Coverley and husband, will be millionaires even at low valuations.

I suspect 40 to 60p would be enough. Bear in mind that is still x16 to x24 current share price (or up to x37 for our TR1 holder. Can't see that being turned down.

And that would still turn 10k investment into 160k to 240k, in months.

Now, what COULD change that, would be strong progress on a point of care test, and/or extensions to other cancer types, as well as sucessful LDT. That realy could push us higher.

Hence why we might be hoping for a series of RNSs, or one big one, as neilin62 alluded to the other day.

And as others have said, we cannot assume a buyout We need to prepare for the alternative via partnerships. But that kind of scale up is going to need more than just Allan on the payroll.

I think this is entirely possible. Could be one reason for silence last 5 months. Ongoing commercial talks on terms and a buyout conditional on test results.

First RNS could be offer recieved.

Somenon here would be disappointed as they feel an early buyout would undersell ciz.

Personally, I think it would suit some key investors like York and Leeds universities (provided it came with an ongoing research deal), suit Prof Coverley and Allan, who could likely retire after suitable locknin periods, and would get this test (and point of care test) to market more quickly with the might and budget of Biotechne , which might suit our cancer research investors.

Yup, there is little volume, but no strong support levels down here. Dropped through the 50dma yesterday without a pause, next psychological support would be $3, then previous trough around $2.60. But the only serious previous volume was around $1.60.

Its just going to fall until it finds buying volume.

Probably better buying CDT at these levels instead of vela, especially if it hits $1.60.

CDT not giving much news or reason to buy.

I wouldn't dial them down that much. It'll be full steam ahead once the LDT in the US is a goer. That is the enabler for so many other steps.

VincentVega

I'm speculating, but i dont think there is much point to running trials in two locations simultaneously.

ciz is small and need to focus any support being provided on one trial to ensure that goes well. When proven, it will just be an exercise to repeat in China or anywhere else, for whatever approval processes this requires.

Is there also the possibility that BioTechne will distribute this in China along with their platform?

Lots of potential news is the pipeline...

LDT

Point of care test

China

Licensing

Extension to other cancers

Buyout?

Exciting times

Yes neilin62,

I am reminded of your excellent post from 12 Dec 2023 00:23, which all holders would do well to re-read.

Nasdaq seems unlikely to me. More likely we will just be bought out by a large US biotech, with a big ongoing research deal for York Uni and and hefty sweetener and tie-in for Prof Coverley.

Techtonic,

There were certainly some sellers, perhaps traders either taking their 10% or perhaps trying to pull the price back down to rinse and repeat. Those shares were snapped up, and at higher prices than before, so more consolidation at a higher level.

To me it feels like its done with ranging, and investors are positioning ahead of expected news. We're seeing steady rises followed by consolidation.

As we've said before, we have no real idea when the news will come, but if the news is as we hope, it will open at miltiples of the closing price and rise from there.

Just a waiting game now.

Simple answer oakp20. CDT isn't worth $10 per share. Its worth $4 per share. That's what the market says its worth.

Now ciz can hang about waiting to see if its ever worth more sometime, but that is out of their hands and reliant on another company, and therefore an u controlled risk.

Frankly i'd rather they had a cash runway and controlled risks that are in their hands. If we want to invest in CDT, we can do so directly. If I were ciz, I'd be selling enough to cover the relatively small costs they have (£70k per month at last estimate) until LDT test is complete. If they need further funds, they can raise at much better rate.

The loan facility you refer to is already a done deal (can be insitgated by either party). So not sure why you keep quotoling it as a risk. Its a certainty (if Strange that they allowed the rate to be varied up from 1.8 to 2.1 previously if there was no need to do so. Any ideas why? That would seem like strange business sense.

Really doesn't behave any different to any other small cap, TBH. Two steps forward, one backwards while on uptrends and the opposite when on downtrends.

From a technical perspective, ciz still very much on an uptrend. This pullback sits on the 3 month and 6 month point of control. And frankly, anyone looking at this intraday day has far too short a timescale for me to be concerned with! Very much a trading perspective.

And oapk20, we've been through this before, ciz has $1.6m of liquid assets. I suspect ciz know that selling a few hundred 000s of that now to complete the trials phase, and then raise at many multiples of todays SP, is a far better deal than raising at current levels and hoping CDT might one day be worth more. The former is in Ciz's control, the latter isn't.