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By its nature, nobody knows the real value until its on the market OAPK20.

Given ciz paid only £1.88m for the rights (RNS Feb 2022) I'd say $2.7m in a liquid asset is a pretty good deal!

Its not the actual value day to day that matters here (that will go up and down). Its the Liquidity! In this market, having available funds is HUGE!

Hardly pumping Oakp20, just a statement of where we are now.

The difference is, you seem to care about what the notional value used to be, all of which was priced in to ciz already, rather than what the value is now. At no point from the time ciz exercised were the shares trading at $10. $8 and falling fast at that time. Probably under $5 by the time the trade settled.

I think we can agree that having circa $2.8m in liquid asset is a good thing, no?

I'm here for the long term. Not a trader. I'd hope any good trader was out by now after the rise from 1.8 to 2.5p. They may have missed the boat for the next leg up to 3p, but that is trading for you.

"broken even" on what? A highly illiquid, notionally valued "rights to royalties" that might never deliver any value.

What they have now is far, far more valuable.

A liquid asset that can be readily sold to fund future test developmemt.

Worth about $2,800,000 as I write this.

Or to put it another way, $400,000 added to ciz in the last 1.5 hrs!

(Can someone check my math please!!!?)

Every 10 cents rise in the CDT share price is $40,000 to ciz, assuming they still hold that full 395k allocation.

RNS states:

"Cizzle exercised its Option on 26 September 2023 and once this has been settled, the Company is expected to hold 395,460 shares in the NASDAQ listed business with no restrictions"

Up again on opening. From a technical perspective, there isnt much to hold this back above 6.5p. Trading volme on the drop was very light and there is a gap to fill above 8p.

... is either very stupid or very desperate.

If they could wait a week they could sell at 20% premium on today 🤷‍♂️

Seller still active for now it seems. When they are gone this should rise substantially. Happy to wait.

Yup. Anyone with a horizon of more than a few days can pick up a bargain here, while some are off chasing the next quick buck. Hard cash generation will eventually show in the price. Expecting a fluctuating upwards channel fom here in.

I took a small amount a couple of weeks back and tripled that on this morning's RNS.

Looks like the price is moving up now. The advertised spread is a nonsense.

Biotechne really are the ideal partner. So many synergies. A global player for quick worldwide distribution, and an M&A strategy in exactly the right space. The extension to detecting other cancer types could keep Biotechne with a pipeline of tests lasting years.

Can't see them letting this go elsewhere.

1:36

https://fb.watch/oRToWKO-0L/

I dont think we ever found out for certain.

Back in Jan someone found a linkedIn profile for a Martin Lang:

Martin Lang - BioNTech Manufacturing GmbH - LinkedIn this could be interesting noted as VP of external supply operations for BioNtech manufacturing and also for vaccines related to Cancer

But it could just be a PI. We just don't know.

I'm more confident on some China deal in future now that we have chosen Biotechne's platform, as they have business in China already. I think the market for the test in China is so large, they won't want to miss out on access to the test, whether its our current partner or another.

Agree the best approach with ciz is to think long term, buy and hold, and take any short term RNS as a bonus.

We simply don't know how long it will take, and ciz dont seem inclined to tell us things until after that are done! (probably because they don't depend on retail investors for funding and the share price to them is likely irrelevant until a buyout).

From Charles Archer's note:

"And moreover, CIZ notes that ‘recent developments meet key milestones to begin commercial clinical trials. The Company is now engaged in clinical trials design to support the validation and accreditation of the CIZ1B test prior to commercial launch.’

A successful commercial launch could see an offer come fairly quickly."

Moreover, trials like this don't take months to design. Its bread and butter stuff. Back test some blood samples and some simple stats.

Charles is correct, it is early stage, in that beyond the LDT test, there is an LFT style test to develop, then extension into other cancers

To reach £s will take years. To reach 40p or a buyout could be days or weeks aways. Many of us think ciz will not stay independent for long, as the key catalyst to prove the long term value is to commercialise the LDT.

Also, hard to believe in todays market, but some people do actually invest for the long term!

In fact the only reason E3 would not drawdown at some point is if they reached the expiry and judge that ciz will not be successful.

So that drawdown is seems inevitable on success, and is already baked in. The far more important thing is that ciz has the funding to complete its trials and reach commercialisation, which in the current market is huge.

Forces out weak hands and 10% traders. And lets those who know, buy more cheaply.

A drawdown always possible (but ciz more likely to drip sell CDT IMO, which they may have been doing already). If requested by E3 it would be a huge boost, as demonstrates massive confidence and the small dilution involved is far less than recent SP movement.

In fact a drawdown would eventually seem inevitable for E3, especially if successful. Why would they not want the shares that will be worth £s when they get them for pennies? Question is whether its before the big RNS or after?

Will be delighted with £s of course.

Professor Coverley, with 5% of shares (many of which are actually her husband's) won't necessarily have as much say as you think.

The cancer organisations supporting this will be as much influenced by getting the test out there and saving lives as they are about profit, and the universities as much concered about securing ongoing long term research funding.

Needs to break 2.5p resistance first 🤣

But slow and steady is fine by me. When the right RNS drops it'll open at multiples of previous close.

But I'm holding until a buyout, maybe 50p?

Appreciate price long term could be much higher, but will be hard to turn down an offer in that region. RTO was 10p I think?