Member Info for BrokeNSmoke

'i have a view and am entitled to express that view in a share that is interesting to me'

is that because you are shorting it pedro? we all know the narrative that you and pp are here to provide balance, basically a public service you are offering free of charge. how very noble of the the two of you. no bias or vested interest in this stock going down at all....

if you roped in the amount of spam posts you make, and provided some form of technical analysis or reasoning to your posts i'm sure you'd get less abuse here. i don't condone the abuse but coming here looking for debate and seeing good posts devolve into ****ging matches and endless spam sucks, and results in the whole forum being worse off.

Jonny - These were my exact thoughts on the JKR interview, it smelt of desperation unfortunately. Still kudos to Jacob.

Despite all the profit warnings and poor forecasting, the financials don't look horrendous to me and I am still holding. My gut says that SMS is on the money with the future of marketing providing they can weather the storm.

Oke - Before this turns into another hijacked post. Just a thanks for posting all the conference call. It was a good read.

Cheers!

'Nobody should follow you when it comes to shares.'

Nobody should follow anyone's advice here when it comes to shares.

Also its a bad look while making job losses.

Sorry to the 500 people getting booted but don't worry, we will be paying investors a dividend.....

'So, the bad news was engineered to get them in on the cheap. 100% guaranteed.'

The RNS was notified on the 15th. Surely they bought expecting a positive TU and are now underwater

Thanks Hex. I sent that in a rush and realised I know damn well that exceptionals are the below the line and thus not included in metrics. Doh. Thank you anyways.

Oh I totally agree with you on that front, and also a little less optimistic than Oke. My arguement was more to say that the potential EPS even if growth is dead (which I don't believe) is very nice, providing they can sort their margins out.

Hi Peeps,

Thanks for the answers

Firstly - T4G cheers for the correction. Ill keep with the figures since the difference it isn't material :). My argument was more to show that there is a decent underlying business even if the doom and gloom predicators on growth turned out to be correct, which I don't believe. I

Hex - Thanks re the EBITDA information, are these including exceptional within the EBITDA figures? My point was more than in stable times the net profit margin has historically been around the 7%. I understand that history doesn't represent the future, but was more using it as a benchmark and hence choosing the 3.5% as a modest indicator.

Thanks for taking the time to reply!

Its worth noting that there was very little share dilution over this period, so the revenue earned per share also went up crazy amounts. Personally, I think even if the growth is completely gone then providing, they can sort out their margins then there is still an attractive business here.

Let’s take one of the worst-case scenarios where we lose 10% of our revenue and once stabilised the growth doesn’t come back. So in today’s money terms, revenue at £1.6B. Even if we get low net profit very low margins – say 3.5% then this would be earnings around the 55m mark. 55m / 1256M ordinary shares is an EPS of 4.4 pence per share, or around 13% of current share price.

Boo have historically gotten around 7% margin which if attained would effectively double the above.

My case here is that even if growth is gone, wealth generation from trading at these levels could still be very prosperous.

Finally, I don’t think growth is dead and gone. Once the macro-economic picture picks up then growth is likely to return big time.

Anyone disagree with my numbers at all?

'PP!.Knowing the Kamanis....that could be the plan.....but....how low.....knowing them 10p or less,maybe?'

Literally just peddling conspiracy theories now.

A good well-reasoned post from Kara lost to the noise from the usual suspects.

DTN

'with a decent set of numbers in the update (which are purely conjecture and opinion until confirmed) i envisage getting my money back, but i dont think it will go shooting upwards, at least not in the short term, without some substantial additional good news.'

I tend to agree with you here. I think if some good numbers come out then there will be a correction upward but it wont be a rocket to the moon. I'm personally expecting a mixed update, a not out of the woods yet but starting to see the trees thinning update. I am hoping the margins will have improved a bit and that the business liquidity still looks decent.

'I dont buy into the 'Umar' effect, nor the USDC being a huge catalyst, both are known events and havent helped the sp one little bit as yet'

I can see what your saying but an insider (if we can class him as that) buying is never a bad sign for the business. If one is wanting to look for signs that the insiders have truly have confidence in the business and the TU narrative isn't just a load of gumpf then that is it.

'I think of they are just 'ok' then that may not help much. Time will tell though.'

Agree, the market is in too much of a stink atm for any speculation.

Alex - I suppose that's something different, that's not the MM manipulating the price of the stock and not creating a market.

I am aware that AIM is the wild west of the UK market. Like you, I am no expect and willing to change my mind if anyone can provide anything substantial on MM manipulation

'T4G,I see as a wishful thinker who considers nothing that could be considered as negative,that is why his investments have performed so very poorly....and why he commands no respect on this board,only derision....'

Disagree. I don't agree with T4Gs MM manipulation stuff, but otherwise he is technically sound, has accepted negatives I have put forward to him in the past and has corrected me on stuff I have gotten wrong. I think most of us respect his company knowledge and take the MM stuff with a pinch of salt.

'Novice buyers are too easily sucked in by rampers.'

1) Yes I 100% believe that you and Pedro are here as white knights here to save novice buyers from the evil rampers

2) What ramping? We have the odd comment here and there about this flying but that is usually about it.

Shame PP. I honestly thought you had changed when you came back to this board and even defended you.

To quote Oke in the other thread: The poster is either weird / mentally ill posting 40 to 50 times in a stock he has no interest or is Shorting

Probably a bit of all 3 tbh. Even if I was shorting I couldn't see myself having the time/energy/inclination to spend so much time parroting out the same crap day in day out.

As to PP1 and Pedro, if they are different people then we can only hope they find each other and continue their love affair in private XD

‘A company has to be profitable to pay the bills......’

Nearly all companies go through periods of loss making as you well know, or you wouldn’t be invested in Mobico Group.

Slacker - Sometimes they are on together and it is truly horrible. Its all ‘PP1, you are so wise’, ‘Pedro, you are so knowledgeable and respected here’.

If my eyes could roll to the back of my skull…..

Magic - thank you L5

Unsure where I sit on this one, I guess same as Hex not expecting anything positive but hoping to be proved wrong. If im allowed to hope then I hope they have seen some margin improvement and that liquidity is still solid after investing into REVB. GLA.

Side note, do we have a confirmed date for the TU?

I'm with Freetrade and still haven't had my divi either. Looking forward to moving over to 212 next year as FT have become awful imo