Member Info for BrokeNSmoke

Hi Wolf,

Thanks for the detail on Sheffield.

And yet many fast fashion competitors manage to manufacture offshore and are decently profitable, unlike us.

Re the whole Leicester closure, I do hope it means they are offshoring the manufacturing more. Why they manufacture apparel in UK segmented towards the low cost end of the market has always seemed a bit crazy to me. Probably not the best time for it re shipping costs however.

I agree with those that think that today and yesterday are driven by macro, a lot of red out there today and yesterday. What I am very surprised at is that the shorters didn't get wind of it and call it. You would think that the moment that the word of shipping being rerouted around the cape and resulting in higher shipping costs which will in turn once again increase inflation, would have been a call they could have made.

The borrowing costs while not great given the rise of rates is understandable with the aggressive inorganic growth strategy S4 pursued. I am not thrilled that on the last TU they were expected to come in at top range.

A single director sell isn't a big worry, as directors can sell for a number of reasons. If there was selling at these low prices then I would be seriously worried.

My biggest concern is the intangibles that you mentioned, it makes the balance sheet very weak and I agree that the equity is speculative. The majority of the 'assets' that your share purchase buys at this price could evaporate due to impairment. With a declining revenue and layoffs in the year, further impairments are likely.

I think the saving grace is that the company is that once the final combination payments are made the company is expecting a positive FCF, this being while trading in a horrific time for advertisers so shows some resilience in the business.

I cant see this getting above £4 in the next 5 years. Lets be fair, those dizzying heights were precipitated by the pandemic and the massive influx of equity into digital stocks. Speculation went a bit crazy in this time period. I think if we return to growth, potential future profitability and some decent forecasting then we could see £1.5-£2.5 range.

Nige - They reduced on the 14th not purchased I think.

The last RNS before December was on the 18th September in which they went to 5.02%. That same figure was the previous notification figure on the RNS dated the 18th December. They reduced on both RNS from what I can see.

I guess we know why the SP hasn't been getting lifted with the rest of the market now

I thought of Eleva today too, must be near brown trousers time for them. I guesstimate that they are probably about 45p average, which given short loan + opportunity costs must be at breakeven point. Plus the buying needed for them to reduce is significant

'Yes I am quite famliar with the pain of stocks moving up and down, and how tomorrow morning we could see another war start somewhere to drive the markets down again.'

I didn’t mean to be patronising, I was just trying to make the point all the rises seem to be predicated on the Fed giving dovish signals which at this point could flip on a coin toss.

Buff - From what I can tell this rise is a sentiment shift on the rumours of central banks cutting rates next year, mostly from what was said by the Fed.

I feel like all it could take would be a hawkish comment from Powell and the rally would capitulate again, which in hindsight would make it a dead cat bounce.

Hopefully its not, and a full sentiment shift has happened for a bull market in 2024.

I posted maybe last week that when the there is rumours of rates being cut, we would likely see equity invested in the money markets move back into stocks. It seems those rumours are now abound, and I assume that is the primary reason all my stocks have jumped 5-15% today.

Hopefully, this is a full sentiment shift back to a more bullish market, and not just a dead cat bounce! Time will tell, GLA

Is this some macro sentiment change? I am seeing all my UK small caps rise substantially.

Got to agree that the downside should be theocratically capped at or near to net assets. I think if you want to be really bearish then maybe deduct the goodwill in the balance sheet from net assets, although, I think the brands that Boo own currently could probably sell for the entire market cap at this point.

Theocratically, yes the upside could be limitless, but you could say that about any share..... What is possible is not what is likely to happen.

My personal opinions on this is that when rates start to come down and money/derivatives markets become less lucrative, we will likely see an influx of equity back into stocks and will likely see the whole market uplift. If that coincides with a return to growth then we should see this rerate quite well. Also I personally see Boo as a good acquisition target for any company that wants a new portfolio of brands. These are the reasons I am holding at least.

The risks I see are that the next couple of TUs are also bloody awful with the revenue deteriorating further and this becomes a value trap.

'According to Morningstar shares data as of November 30th 2023. Hopefully the large selling has now passed / finished. Tim will tell.'

How do we contact this Tim? 😁

Re the gradual shift to US investors, I do wish S4 would reconsider a US listing as the LSE is certainly not helping the situation.

Richard and Judy Boo mash-up got a giggle 👍

Its going to continue to yo-yo between these amounts, often sitting in the middle until news changes, either the company's fortunes, the macro or something exceptional like a take-over. Until then its 30ish pence town!

Wace have been mostly spot-on with their shorts, in BOO and others I have seen them take short interest positions in, so to see them reduce is good. Eleva have been a mixed bag. They originally called it right when we were at 50-55p range going to 1.07% in that period and making a decent buck, but then they increased by 0.63% when at 31-33p range which hasn’t done so well. I’m guessing their short probably has a weighted average around 44-45p, so a decent safety margin on about 30% based on current SP.

Clossus - My point being mate that the SP is near to all time lows and if they were nervous/concerned about MA building a stake then they could up their controlling interest at any point relatively on the cheap, but they haven't. I get that they may have other reasons for not buying, like better opportunities for their fortunes elsewhere (like the treasury markets), lack of personal capital to invest, lack of faith in growth/recovery, etc, but I still think we can probably say that if MA buying was a big concern we would probably see some buys. Agree with the second part of what you said :)

I have to agree with DTN on this one. Yes market manipulation can exist and AIM is a bit of a wild west, but its not good to see manipulation everywhere guys.

Likely it is pure opportunism. When the SP has no other big buyers, why push up the price, just buy piecemeal.

Why would the Kamani's be getting nervous? IF they were we would likely of seen some buys from them. I think that they haven't bought, shows an indifference to MA buying personally.

Question for you Pipe. I'm not overly keen on TA re the whole problems around essentially extrapolating data based on historic trends, but more importantly, TA is surely something an algorithm could calculate, judge and invest appropriately in the fraction of the time a human could do it. I am not sure how manually using TA actually benefits one as you would think if there are any recommendations provided, they would of already been acted on by the algos?