Member Info for BrokeNSmoke

BOOM is the noise made when Israel hit the Iranian embassy and caused all our stocks to drop on renewed war escalation fears. We could have great results but the macro will hinder this regardless methinks.

A good breakdown Hexam and I agree

My only addition here would be that I think that the IP that Boohoo own would probably be worth more (at an arms length transaction) than the value of intangibles. I had a quick look at last year and the NBV of trademarks was at £78m. We will likely have another 11m or so amortisation in the most recent financial period so £67m close at a guess for the upcoming numbers. Pure speculation but I would suspect that Boo would get many multiples of this for their IP.

What are your thoughts when it comes to intangibles? I am interested because the Brand/IP wealth is one of the only things that has kept me invested here. Cheers.

I mean that's the only reason they will list in London over NYC; that being if the US authorities stop it from happening, or the amount of information they would need to disclose becomes an deal breaker.

I think if they aren't able to IPO in the US then it will IPO on the LSE and we will get the usual hot air from the gov about how it is such a great win for the UK and LSE, while the quietly ignoring the fallout of all the UK stocks that have been demolished over the last few years.

Finally, let's be fair. The poor practises of Shein have been widely known for ages now. It's always an out of sight, out of mind mentality with non-western working practises. I can't see this changing any time soon and it's likely folly to think this will change however much we would like it to.

Reardon - was that definitely the correct link?

Was I supposed to get a generic inspirational quote?

Sam - Agreed, I cant see Hunt on his knees begging for Shein to IPO on LSE whilst simultaneously upsetting them.

I think if Shein don't IPO on LSE then we have a fair chance of this being legislated, otherwise, fat chance.

Poker

I get you mate, I just don't think Cosmen will particularly care about other shareholders to be honest, but probably will the lenders. I do 100% agree that these things are a major distraction and could negatively impact the business should an offer by made but not followed through for whatever reason.

This is why I caveated my opinion with, if Cosmen are wanting to fully acquire.

Poker - I am not sure why the BOD couldn't do both at once? It only becomes onerous once the due diligence starts and even then they should be able to handle it.

I just personally think that if it is Cosmens goal to acquire then I don’t see the NA sale not being done as hampering these ambitions if they also believe this is a good valuation at which to try and acquire. Fine they may pay out an extra few million in completion bonuses, but this would likely be far cheaper than the value of the company rising any substantial amount.

'PC: I dont see a Takeover and a US Bus sale happening in the same timescale...'

Personally, I think this probably more depends on how Cosmen want to proceed. Getting a low-ball bid in whilst at a low valuation vs the waiting until the sale to be wrapped up. If Cosmens are indeed interested in a takeover then I could envisage a scenario in which they do try a takeover bid and arrange a golden handshake/bonus to current management for a successful transition stage, including the sale of NA.

I trimmed a little when we were in the 90s, so decided to rebuy my position. I guess my thoughts are similar to others here, good business but awful management. Probably worth buying at the moment for the possibility of an inbound offer.

'Doesn't it have to be higher than the highest closing share price in past 12 months or something?'

I think its the highest share price paid by that individual/entity/affiliate in the last 12 months. So regardless if the share price was >£1, providing the bidder hasn't purchased at that price it then it doesn't matter.

JC - I thought you were taking a break mate 😅

I have been saying for quite a while now, that I think revenue from tech will continue to shrink, and that is my hope that other new accounts will come in to offset that loss (BK for example). I guess this is SMS more or less confirming that. People seem to think that just because Meta deferred their advertising spend budget it means it will come back with vigour in the future. I hope this is the case, but I suspect that Meta shareholders were very happy with their returns in 2023 and if it is sustainable to have high advertising revenue and low spend, then why wouldn’t you?

As GoCPI says, this could well go down lower as investors mull over the upcoming results with likely impairment losses, contraction in growth, poor macro backdrop and gloomy outlook. At least the buyback demonstrates comfort within the cash position and company liquidity.

My better judgement states I should wait until the update to buy more but I couldn’t help having a nibble at 36-37p.

'Who knows' is a accurate sentiment. I suspect us falling down to the 37s is due to the buyback scheme ending which was artificially keeping low 40s whilst the market was dropping. We know the results aren't going to be great in terms of negative growth, but liquidity should be ok since they had the free cash for buy backs. I suppose profitability is the wildcard re all the cuts etc.

Fingers crossed indeed!

I have an investment here and I am sick of seeing comments saying manipulation without so much an ounce of proof. If pulled up on this, the retort usually amounts to 'well you cant prove its not manipulation'......

We have more sells than buys, and our only big buyer over the last year isn't currently buying. Maybe this is the reason and not some conspiracy? And if you were so inclinded to try and manipulate the market; why would you risk trying to do this when the opportunity you want is already there? None of this makes sense.

I would like you to be right SCB, but I very much doubt it. I feel like if this was the case we would of

Personally, I didn't think it was the best idea ever. I would have preferred that they removed the stamp duty on buying UK shares or something. I can imagine the software technicians for all the platforms letting out a collective groan at this new bit of regulation they are going to have to code for. What happens if you invest that extra £5,000 into UK stocks, it makes say 30% and you decide to trim your position by 20%. Are the gains made hypothecated to UK stocks? From a coding perspective, this sounds like a nightmare to track.

'12 months from now !! Agreed ...4 plus ...'

A 900% return! Rather ambitious. I would love for you to be right but Id be happy to get back to £1.50

Lordeh - Got to agree. Google states that $14B was spent on the last US election. From memory I believe the Democrats spent something like 4 times as much as the Republicans that election. I think there is a very good chance that both parties will chuck the kitchen sink in this election and we will be in the $20-30B range. Even a small chunk of this spend would be very welcome here.

'Seems the buyback is aimed to reduce the shares in circulation before a low ball bid attempt'

A bit of wild speculation? Why would the directors try to aid a low ball bid unless there was some form of collusion?

Share Prices are always jittery on gov budget announcement days. Lets see where the close is today methinks.

'Shein executive chairman giving me Chinese Donald Trump vibes'

Ha! I read this before reading the article. So true!

NTL - Exactly. S4 isn't a distressed company but its not an attractive one to invest in in the short term.

Only reason I may invest more is that I know I cant time the markets, so may buy more while its relatively inexpensive.