Member Info for BrokeNSmoke

If there had been a news leak, I would expect the shorts to be all over this, but the known short interest doesn't seemed to have moved.

Only a week of this to go and then we know at least.

Gents (and Ladies), been a while since I have posted here as I got out of BOO at 34/35ish GBX after the whole bonus debacle which p*ssed me off royally.

Just saw todays' news, damn. For how long were many of us here all saying, stop the growth plan and sort the margins out!? Year after year since the headwinds started many of us were saying that. JL seriously should resign now; hopefully MA as primary shareholder revolts and forces the issue.

GLA all - I hope this turns around for you all at some point.

Tend to agree with you all. I am only sad I don't have much dry powder to buy down here.

The only thing I can add is that we shouldn't be getting any nasty surprises in the TU hopefully with the lack of any profit warnings. I am hoping that the combination of a good/stable TU (first in a while) with a rate drop and continued possibility of a sale of S4 will galvanise the share price.

GLA

I may be wrong here, but I think that lse.co.uk basically guesses the buy/sell based on where the current bid/ask is. I have seen a few anomalies like this

'I am not sure how the markets would take that..would need pretty bad payroll numbers tomorrow...and an increase in unemplyment ....'

I somewhat agree although I think market sentiment has to take a backseat to economic reality. I would make the argument (and have previously) that the Fed should have started cutting rates before now. Truflation CPI showing at 1.26% and a good chunk of the Fed's core CPI is based on housing which is directly caused by interest rates. The core-CPi also strips out the volatiles like fuel and food which have both been coming down!

I am not a savant and the Fed may be bang on the money but it was a delayed response then knee-jerk reactions on the way up so I wouldn't be surprised if the same happened on the way down.

As you say, fingers crossed that the data doesn't warrant a steep cut and we can come down gradually. The cynic in me has doubts though.

GLA

Redwine - Its all in the macro, anxiety ahead of the US PMI data, especially after the market freak-out about the rate of unemployment and more likelihood of recession.

To add to what sharefall said - assuming that he thinks he can get the SP moving forward is a also a big assumption. The world has taken a big violent step away from progress in the last few years. I think this may have tempered his ego somewhat and potentially changed expectations.

Tend to agree that the interview was a signal.

Agreed, we probably need to stop the endless speculation of acquisitions. Still a good acquisition target for a fellow agency IMO based on the revenue and cash generation.

'So - whats the equity market so spooked about?'

Purely in the macro IMO. Personally, I have always considered transport somewhat recession-proof and any knee-jerk rate cuts will only benefit us. Unless the next TU shows any concerning figures, I will just wait out the storm.

'Retail investors put £37 billion into tracker funds since the start of 2022, while at the same time withdrawing a staggering £89 billion from active funds, based on Investment Association data. These are absolutely unprecedented outflows, and compound the performance woes experienced by active managers.'

Thanks for this. Does it mention where the 52B difference went? One assumes the majority have gone to treasury bills?

Carrington - well done, nice profit.

Personally, I think you are right. My gut says they were probably going to come down on the conservative side of things even before labours big inflation busting pay rises.

I'm horrible at timing the market so will likely just hold. GLA

Agreed - I noticed that UK trulfation has CPI at 1.25% so it shouldn't be long till the ONS official data follows and goes sub-2%

Even though we are mostly US focused, i suspect we will still see some UK pre-election jitters in the share price personally.

Not sure I agree Poker, at least on the small cap front. There has been a lot of acquisition/takeover activity in the UK small cap sector, which is also a sign of vulture capitalism and scooping up companies on the cheap under their fair value. I don't think its unfair to say that many small caps are valued below their fair value, which is partially due to a lack of perceived value from investing in FTSE 250/350/ AIM. I think that does make the LSE somewhat kinda broken at this moment in time.

I found the below an interesting read:

https://www.trustnet.com/news/13417961/should-investors-be-worried-about-the-great-uk-takeover-frenzy

All pretty much irrelevant here though re SMS's golden share I guess. We are in it for the long haul, which is fine with me.

'BBC reporting on PLT regarding account closures'

On sites with comments, this move turned out to be surprisingly positive. The number of liked comments which stated something like ‘Some people wearing the garments with tags still on and sending them back’ or ‘influences are a problem doing haul videos and sending everything back’. I was expecting BOO/PLT to get a load of bad press, but public opinion seemed to be coming down on those who abused returns instead.

Well if there is at least one thing this board is united on is it's opinion of Garat.

I'm not sure I said it on here but I was fully expecting the inflation rate to magically hit its target right before an election and surprise surprise.

I was also of the opinion that it was going to be September but I do have a suspicion that a small rate cut will be announced tomorrow and the Tories will use the line that they have tamed inflation and the economy is turning. I know the BoE is supposedly independent but this is stacking up a bit too well for pure coincidence.

Also before anyone asks, yes some of the CPI numbers can be manipulated depending upon calculation methods.

John - We can only speculate, but if it was me going into that role I too would push the reporting date back to go through everything with a fine tooth comb. While financial reporting standards are well standardised, the data and processes are always different and it takes time to understand. Further with the previous sh*t show under the previous CFO, I would be going into that role with a massive degree of doubt over the quality of the information the management accountants were handing me.

Hi Ted,

No idea what the collective here thinks but my personal opinion is that the shorts just got wind of the Fed's narrative and upped their interest on small caps with debt. All my other small caps saw an increase in short interest prior to Wednesday, then a plunge come Wednesday afternoon. It may be a coincidence, but it was a trend I witness across my portfolio. If I was smart I would have sold and bought back, but I am terrible at timing the market and the CPI data looked good to me 🤷‍♂️

Best of luck for the future.

Less than 2 weeks ago you were telling people to buy under 53p because it will soon hit 60p!!! Nothing has changed in that time period except a sentiment shift on the US rates front....

One has to assume you have swapped from long to short here?