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In case you haven't picked up on it, the Turkish web has quite a few recent articles saying that an ICC ruling (on the export use by KRG of the Iraq-TR pipeline) is expected "soon".
In this part of the world "soon" has rather an elastic meaning.

The West, driven mostly by the USA but including most of the so-called Free World (LOL), made a series of bad mistakes when the old Soviet Union broke up 1990/91.
Far too many were patting themselves on the back at "defeating Communism" and showing that the future was Free Market Capitalism.
The opportunities, fraught with danger and difficulties as they were at the time, were ignored.
Let us hope that we don't ignore the opportunities presented when Putin departs the scene.

Putin is not Russia - and Russia is much, much more than Putin.

Yet another variable thrown into the mix by Tayyip.
From Bloomberg, by Selcan Hacaoglu:
Turkey’s Erdogan Puts the Brakes on NATO’s Nordic Expansion
• Erdogan voices firm opposition before talks on Sweden, Finland
• Turkish president calls Sweden ‘nesting ground’ for terrorists
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said he won’t allow Sweden and Finland to join NATO because of their stances on Kurdish militants, throwing a wrench into plans to strengthen the western military alliance after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
At the heart of the matter is Erdogan’s deep resentment against NATO allies for what he sees as their refusal to take seriously Ankara’s concerns about Kurdish militants operating inside Turkey and across its borders in Syria and Iraq. Turkey wants its perception of the threat to be acknowledged by all NATO members, and says risk priorities should be harmonized across the alliance.

His one vote can block it.
What trade-off will he get?

Also contributing to the nervousness, the laws of unintended consequences...
From Argus Media:
"...The Senate Judiciary Committee voted 17:4 to approve the No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels (Nopec) Act, which would enable US prosecutors to sue foreign entities in US courts for anti-competitive behavior in oil markets — the latest iteration of anti-Opec legislation that has been making rounds since the 2000s. The House of Representatives' judiciary panel voted last year to back a similar bill.

The White House does not oppose the bill outright, but "the potential implications and unintended consequences of this legislation require further study and deliberation," it said. "We are taking a look at it and certainly have some concerns about what the potential implications could be."

IF the crude price stays so high for the rest of 2022 it will, IMO, bring to the fore the very same ENVY that BP's and Shell's profits are currently engendering. The cries for a Windfall Tax here in the oh-so-civilized UK & Europe will most definitely find a strong echo in Baghdad and Erbil. This will be highlighted by the fact that the GKP Profit Oil component of the KRG PSCs, at $117 Brent (using Mar-22 as an example) currently looks like $6.70/bbl. If Brent holds for a while at $130/bbl or even peaks at what some are prophesying ($150+) the $/bbl PO returns (ignoring for the moment the R-factor adjustment that full return of Capex will necessitate) will make selling or justifying such numbers to your electorate, baking in 50deg heat with Elect only available for 4-6 hrs per day, impossible. IF POO remains this high then some form of "adjustment" will, for sure, need to be introduced by both Baghdad and Erbil to mollify their voters.
In my opinion.

Hi Cookie,
hope you are well and having a good start to the Easter break.

Re the 20%, one of the major stumbling blocks must surely be the Khurmala field. This is entwined with the adjacent Kirkuk issues - which have always been a bone-breaker for the Kurds.
As a high-output field, with good quality crude, they won't want to see it go.

The board of directors have contributed almost nothing - the only value accretion has been due to the greatly increased price of crude; field output remains almost static.
The trough that keeps on giving...

@billh95,
the GKP oil is sold at a discount to Brent - currently $21/bbl.
EIA annual Brent average for 2021 shows as $70.86/bbl- so take away the $21/bbl and you get roughly...?

In view of the KRG threat to penalize companies that do not address the Gas Flaring issue (by end 2022?) we need clear guidance on this - as well some clear words as to the whole issue of gas monetization / disposal.

We take the security of our data very seriously, so I thought to share this.

The name PIANO has come up recently as a company attempting to set cookies on various websites we visit. Visiting the Piano site we read the following:
"Over the past year, several browsers have, or are planning to, limit third-party cookies and cross-site tracking. Apple started the trend by deploying Safari’s ITP (Internet Tracking Protection) — which blocks third-party cookies and limits first-party cookies used as third-party. Firefox followed suit by blocking third-party cookies as a default. Then Google announced third-party cookies restrictions, with plans to permanently deprecate them by 2022.

These cookie restrictions are setting user targeting, CX and site metrics back 20 years. This new reality will result in an impersonal customer experience, make it tougher for publishers to drive subscriptions and for brands to authentically connect with consumers. From forgotten sessions and inaccurate analytics, to the inability to retarget users, these new regulations have caused even more headaches for anyone owning an audience monetization strategy. Unless you have first party cookies that are set server-side, of course.

Owning Your Data

First-party data has reigned supreme for decades. Browsers favor a direct exchange of data between end users and domains, and that data has helped publishers move users closer to subscribing and brands to deliver relevant products to their audience in the right moments. The problem is many publishers don’t actually have first party cookies or tracking in place. That’s why we built Cookie Extension.

Cookie Extension by Piano

Piano is releasing Cookie Extension — a new way to set and manage your first-party cookies in this cookie-limited world. These cookies are indistinguishable from your own, allowing Piano's user login, data capture and targeting capabilities to overcome browser-based limitations. You can feel relief knowing your audience monetization strategy will not be impacted.

Cookie Extension goes deeper into preserving your CX by monitoring efficacy to ensure cookies aren’t being dropped from your browser and remaining cookie compliant with all of the nuanced regulations. Your audience has become accustomed to a personalized experience and frankly, you have built a business off of that model. Piano has developed this capability to ensure no concessions are made for today, or the future."

putup,
three, four, five main elements:
A. Design plant - should be based on latest and reliable data
B1. Manufacture plant - fabricated in Canada
B2. Prepare foundations and pads
B3. Prepare required pipelines to new wells.
C. Ship to KStan - generally, for KRG, done by truck from Turkish port
D. Assemble - generally done under supervision of fabricator
E. Commission and fine tune - done by fabricator with on-the-job training of local- and contractor labour.
Your choice...

and demand destruction is coming, control your joy at these crude prices.

Latest...from The Telegraph
Over 15 countries have called for a special meeting with the UN's shipping agency to discuss the safety of ships and their crews sailing through the Black Sea and Sea of Azov after Russia's invasion of Ukraine and growing dangers to vessels.

Many shipping firms have suspended sailings to affected Black Sea ports and other terminals in Ukraine. Insurance premiums for voyages have soared since Russia's invasion on February 24, an action Moscow calls a "special operation".

An Estonian-owned cargo ship sank on Thursday off Ukraine's major Black Sea port of Odessa, hours after a Bangladeshi vessel was hit by a missile or bomb at another port. This followed at least three other ships being hit by projectiles in recent days.

Australia, Belgium, Canada, Cyprus, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Malta, Netherlands, Sweden, Turkey, Britain and the United States jointly called for the meeting, which is also backed by Ukraine, according to officials involved and a public document.

"We are in close contact with the captains of the Greek and Greek-owned vessels which have Greek crews sailing in the Black Sea," Greece's Shipping Minister Ioannis Plakiotakis said separately.

Appears also to apply to ship on the water.

Estonian-owned cargo ship Cargo ship sunk Thursday by mine in Ukrainian waters close to Odessa., near where Russian navy vessels are waiting.

Does Russia now "own" the Black Sea?

The downside to this crazy oil price is the sheer devastation will cause to economies. The few pennies dividend are already gone - swallowed by rapidly rising prices at the petrol pump, in the supermarkets and soon followed by huge jumps in inflation which will devastate many sectors of many economies.
It might give a nice glow at the moment as your GKP shares creep up but the price to be paid by everyone has still to be seen.
The more the Russians are forced into a corner the greater the risk of nuclear conflict.
How long can the West retain their "no boots on Ukraine soil" mantra?

Lest we forget...

None of these Laundromat Oligarchs could have succeeded in washing their dirty money, whether in London, Monaco, Switzerland, Virgin Islands, or wherever, without the aid of the pack of UK Lawyers who know best how to "butter their bread".
They don't ignore the law - they use it, and very well too, to their best advantage - see Bill Browder and his attempts to get justice for his murdered lawyer Sergei Magnitsky. Bob Seely MP raised the issue again in Parliament today and we should never forget that without those who help these crooks into their saddles the problem would be very much reduced.
A sewer with many sewer rats...

Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel (1770-1831) a famous German philosopher hit the nail on the head when he said:
"But what experience and history teach is this, that peoples and governments have never learned anything from history, nor have they acted according to lessons learned therefrom."

The possibility that the Kurdish PSC’s could be drastically revised or even revoked, and then managed by the Iraq Oil Ministry as TSCs, seems to induce spasms of acute anxiety.
While the prospect of dealing with new people in Baghdad could certainly be very challenging and working relationships would have to be rebuilt from scratch, the Bottom Line might not change all that much.

Consider:
Assuming PoO at say $80/bbl, the actual Profit Oil element for SH Contractor Group is about $4/bbl, give or take (for the eternal optimists my $100/bbl calc shows $5.50/bbl PO at 50Mbopd). That of course must be qualified by pointing out only IF the outstanding Costs are still substantial (R-factor). Should the Outstanding Capex greatly reduce then that $/bbl PO will shrink substantially. As far as I can see, the return of Capital Costs via the TSC appears to be a touch faster than the Kurdish PSC. The main (negative) point of the TSC remains the inability to state the Reserves as being “yours”; you remain just a contractor paid a $/bbl fee to “get it out of the ground”.

Back 2009/2010, Sonangol bid for, and finally obtained, the TSCs for some of the northern fields close to Mosul, including the Qaiyarah- and Najmah heavy, sour crude fields (API ca 15, so quite close to SH crude). At the start of these negotiations the $/bbl remuneration being discussed was between $10 - $12/bbl, but the final number agreed with the Ministry in Baghdad (what we consider the Profit Oil element) was $5/bbl for Qaiyarah and $6/bbl for Najmah. Targeted output was/is somewhat similar to Shaikan at 120Mbopd for Qaiyarah and 110Mbopd for Najmah. Planned Capex was said to be in the region of $2Bn.

It's an opinion, based on some facts, and perhaps worth some discussion...?

Sonangol recently revised their contractual agreements with Baghdad (Oct-21) so if anyone has $/bbl numbers that change the above view please post them!

Good morning to you SS,
I made no reference to international law but to international scrutiny - quite a different matter. The law of Iraq is what it is - sovereign law. In parts, however, it is quite open to widely differing interpretations.

I mean the scrutiny of others, well versed in interpreting the meaning behind such national- and international laws or indeed judgements.
Concerning the validity of the KRG "constitution", and particularly their Oil & Gas Law, there are already several opinions that have been published over the years by well qualified people, well-versed in interpreting such matters. These opinions carry weight, a lot of weight, when these matters are placed before international courts.
The ISC is weighted against the Kurds in these matters, of that there can be no doubt, and the struggle to have a more equitable judgement made (in their favour) is not over.

The ambiguities within the new Iraq Constitution have all been well aired, here and elsewhere. That's why we are where we are - the law was, in part, poorly drafted and allowed far too much free interpretation of what was meant to be.
(The much-touted and poorly drafted Minsk Agreements are similarly behind much of what is happening today in the Ukraine.)
In the Iraq constitution, for example; Article 115 says something to the effect that:
"The priority goes to the regional law in case of conflict between other powers shared between the federal government and regional governments".
In a similar vein, Article 121, 2 says something to the effect that:
"In case of a contradiction between regional and national legislation in respect to a matter outside the exclusive powers of the federal government, the regional authority shall have the right to amend the application of the national legislation within that region".
Finally, Article 126 states:
"...articles of the Constitution may not be amended if such amendment takes away from the powers of the regions that are not within the exclusive powers of the federal authorities, except by the approval of the legislative authority of the concerned region and the approval of the majority of its citizens in a general referendum".

There are no clear articles defining the powers of the Federal Government in respect of these matters; indeed the constitution states that in the event of contradictions between central and local laws of any regional administration, authority is conferred on the local administration.

I do not see this latest ruling holding up under international scrutiny; if anything it's just another opportunity for international lawyers to stir the pot and earn more millions.