Member Info for BroadfordBay

Don't forget, the PSC, in the laying out of the R-Factor returns, makes quite plain that it's the CUMULATIVE figures, from the date of signature of the contract, that are defining. The clock isn't reset when you reach 55Mbopd or 75Mbopd or whatever.
R = X/Y
X = Cumulative Revenues actually received by the Contractor
Y = Cumulative Costs actually incurred by the Contractor
For R < 1, the % share of Profit Crude Oil is 30%
For R > 1 but < 2, the % share of Profit Crude Oil becomes (30 - (30-15)*(R-1)/(2-1)
For R = 2 or greater, the % share of profit crude oil becomes 15%

Capital investment (as some seem to be suggesting, to be undertaken only when the historical Capex has been returned) will struggle to positively influence the R-factor (or PO revenue) by very much - unless it is a very significant Capex sum (and always assuming POO stays high).
As TM has pointed out, and quite apart from the PSC's strictures, the KRG's reputation is not conducive to making very large investments "at one go".

nufc9 = Habshan = one of the real, died-in-the-wool frauds posting here.

See Habshan posting #645995 on the other board
So having initiated the game by saying that his report "was spot on and rocked the boardroom" Tony has now decided that he doesn't want to talk about it any more.
My 5 year old granddaughter does that when she's caught out as well.
And having told us that your report is still spot on and that we should compare it with the next official update Tony, when are you intending to post it up so that we can see it and make the comparison.
And that means BEFORE the update not after.

There appears to be differences of opinion, no surprise there, about this new variant:.
Welt (.de) is reporting that the 2 people infected in Hong Kong had tested negative in their Isolation Hotel just 2 days previously, and that their Viral Load had increased very rapidly:
"The PCR test of two people infected with the new Corona variant Omikron in Hong Kong showed a very high and rapidly increasing viral load. It looks like the variant could actually escape vaccination protection, says epidemiologist Eric Feigl-Ding.
The two confirmed Omikron infected people in Hong Kong apparently have a very rapidly increasing viral load. The PCR tests of the two men, who were negative a few days earlier, showed a Ct value of 18 and 19.

“That is insanely high, especially when you consider that the two were still negative in the last PCR tests,” writes epidemiologist Eric Feigl-Ding, who did research at Harvard University for a long time. It looks as if the variant could actually escape vaccination protection, Feigl-Ding continued.

Opinions, opinions, opinions...

Good morning Cookie,
absolutely no need to apologize, we're both adults and are subject to life's ups and downs so it's good to get stuff off one's chest now and again.
My personal anger the moment is more directed towards those people, not only in China but in other culpable research centres throughout the Western World, who contributed to the devastation being wreaked upon us all by the Wuhan, weaponised SAR-Cov-2 virus. Not a rant, but a cold-blooded expression of great anger.

Hi Cookie,
your final sentence shows that you recognize the limitations of such Broad Brushstrokes, so let's take it as intended; rant acknowledged !
The people of the United States, in my experience (I have lived there and have family there) are, for the most part kind, warm-hearted and generous to a fault.
Certainly there is much that we "Europeans" can find fault with, but to say it's all just fakery and greed-driven is taking it too far.
The view of John Winthrop's "City upon a Hill" may occasionally be somewhat clouded, even drenched by the bitter rain of blood spilled on foreign soil, but the nation's basic goodness and belief in freedom always seems to emerge again at the end of the day.
I would say there's more to be proud of than be ashamed of.

TM,
I fully agree.
Whatever parameters you enter (CO & PO WI%, Tax), it doesn't appear to fit exactly. I've run the monthly variance against these parameters for some years now, even breaking the KRG out into 22 shipments over the month (ca 600Mstb per Ceyhan load), but still it doesn't gel.
There is of course another variable of which we have no (official) knowledge, namely the API grade being produced at each PF. The current $/bbl discount was agreed (and changed) some time ago and references a SH grade of N°API. If that API had decreased at one of the PFs (say, from 17 to 14), I am sure that the MNR would seek to have the agreed $/bbl export value (to GKP) reduced to reflect that. I believe the SH output is exhibiting grade fluctuations in one particular area of the field and that may be a pointer - it wouldn't take much; one producer out of 3 (or 4) would be enough to drop your $/bbl and account for the difference IMO.

Just because the Brent Aug Monthly Average is given by IEA as $70/bbl does not make it the parameter to use - some recent months have seen large spreads.
August showed a low of $65.51/bbl and a high of $73.91/bbl.
How many shipments per month are there of Kurdish Blend - six, eight, ten ?
I'm sure the trading house forward financing agreement is based on the crude price at collection date.

I believe the final monthly amortization payment due for the $500M loan to KRG (forward financing of oil deals) is due end-Dec 2021.
If the KRG are seeking a further financing deal, whether via Glencore or another trading house, then that deal might need inking about now.

The amount of Climate Change mud being slung at the (mostly Western) oil majors now and in the forthcoming years must surely greatly increase the chance of any buyer of GKP's interest in the Shaikan PSC being a private company (only possible of course with KRG approval).
Those listed on Western Stock Exchanges, especially those with active "ethical investors" on their books , will face increasing headwinds.
KAR Group must be in there with a shout...

LOL - "Celincourt Communications Limited"
Another place, another time, another court - thank you William:
"I did never know so full a voice issue from so empty a heart. But the saying is true: “The empty vessel makes the greatest sound.” "

Hi Cookie, the real Cookie,
I trust you are well?
The philosopher Schopenhauer, back in the 1800's, wrote a series of essays and one of these (Parerga und Paralipomena) contains the following insight, still valid today and which can be seen, alive and well, on the other board. Sadly, and as you say, the virus has also spread to this board :
"There is no opinion, however absurd, which men will not readily embrace as soon as they can be brought to the conviction that it is generally adopted."

ValueS,
as you say, the KRG are more / very interested in using the gas for power generation, rather than just injecting it - whether for sour gas disposal purposes or for enhanced recovery. What they most definitely do not want is another 75Mbopd of heavy, sour crude to reduce even further the value of the Kurdish Blend.
The GOR numbers last given in the Ryder Scott evaluation prepared in Nov-2010, and confirmed in the ERCE report of Sept-2015, give you the reason: the Solution Gas content for the Kurra Chine B is around 6 - 10 times that of the currently Jurassic formations (debatable whether KC-B formation should be considered a Condensate- or a Gas Producer).
That gas flow shows that 1 x KC-B well could produce as much gas as ALL of the currently producing Jurassic wells.
Dealing with that presents a financial- and technical challenge that GKP is not up to, and the MNR is very well aware of that.
It's now a tight corner to get out of and presents the MNR with several interesting possibilities with regard to exerting leverage.
Enhanced capital return to shareholders might well be seen by a pressurized CEO as as Get Out of Jail Free card should push come to shove.

The assertion that KURDNAM63 is Oilman 63 is absolute *******s.

The KURDNAM moniker was created on the ADVFN board to cause confusion (NAM not MAN), muddy the waters and make Oilman 63 / KURDMAN lose face - something that surreyscot, who also posts on that board under yet another avatar, knows very well.

Until the KRG instructions (30th July-21) to “stop gas flaring” have been discussed in detail with the MNR, and the consequences, both technical and commercial, have been fully explored, it would be most unwise to deplete your cash reserves much further.

Shaikan geological complexities seem to be growing by the day, as currently being confirmed by SH-13, and the challenges in overcoming these, both technical and financial, cannot be ignored.

In a few days the $50M special dividend will be made, as will the $5M half-yearly bond interest payment. On the plus side, the July oil sales payment ($30M or so) should also be received. All in all, the cash pile will then reduce to roughly $168M by 8th Oct-21 (assuming no additional, costly technical issues or FUs with the SH-13 well).

The statement re Gas Flaring made by the Ministry on 30th July may well have been just posturing, made for another audience, reinforcing green credentials, but it would be unwise to bet the bank on it. In the event that flaring by one or two companies might be stopped or reduced (pour encourager des autres), it would be essential to have sufficient firepower in your financial & technical armoury to deal with the threat in a timely manner

If you cannot find a suitable formation for re-injecting sour gas then you may have to buy or lease process plant to deal with it – at short notice and at some considerable cost - you may well have budgeted for such plant at some time in the near future, but the Ministry’s interjection, if carried through, will play hell with all of your plans.

Hi Cookie,
The true number of Long Term Holders is almost certainly extremely low.
The number of Day Traders flying under false LTH colours, however, is extremely high.

There are many Strangers to the Truth on these bulletin boards...

Nobull,
I posted the following some time ago (Jan-21) but, in view of the "80-year" nonsense now being spouted and your mentioning 2043, the content needs reiterating:
A. Shaikan was declared a Commercial Discovery on 1st Aug-2012 and the Contract Term is for 20 years from commercial discovery; that means end-of-term is 1st August 2032 (PSC Clause 6.10 refers).
B. There is an “automatic right” to a 5-year extension - and that would take it up to 1st Aug-2037. It’s my presumption that this “right” will still have to be requested or demanded.
C. There is another possible extension, of another 5 years, which can be requested at the end of the 20+5 year period (1st Aug-2037).
D. IF requested, and granted, the contract would then finally end 1st August 2042. Note that this particular request has to be made at least six (6) months before end of the development period.

So, in 11 years time (minds will be concentrated well before the drop-dead date!), a decision will have to be made by the BOD on whether to “stick with it”, or to seek pastures anew.

It would be most wise, at that point, to have plenty of ammunition in your cupboard – and by that I mean both technical- & commercial arguments AND well-filled pockets.

For some years now the company has been arguing (“in discussion”) with the KRG/MNR about finally transferring the TKI 5% interest, agreeing a new Contract Amendment, paying back historical outstanding payments, AND the receipts from Test Production sales ($27.3M) made during the period prior to approval of the original Field Development Plan (July 2013).

In addition to, or included in all of that (?), is the thorny issue of Working Interest. The market has still not been officially informed as to whether the WI% remains at 58% or whether it has been increased to 80% - a very significant factor to take into account.

Re FDP:
You mean just like the Chinese Takeover that was agreed years ago but couldn't be told to the world at large...?

Laugh out Loud

...and all of these cash flow / PO and CO cash return assumptions fly out the window if POO suffers an extended downturn.

Re playing hardball with the MNR, that's fine in theory but you may find they have harder balls than you, so you have to keep all viable options open.

In the Natural Gas section of the GKP PSC (which includes other, more specific clauses pertaining to Associated- and Non Associated Natural Gas) , is the following introduction clause - which I should have included in previous posting, my apologies. This appears to be yet another clause which, in conjunction with the clauses I mentioned yesterday, leaves quite a lot open to interpretation and I'm sure plays a part in the ongoing disagreement.
As I said before, this is from the GKP PSC, although I expect the Genel one to be virtually identical, at least in its wording.

Article 14 – Natural Gas
Use for Petroleum Operations
14.1 To take account of specific conditions relating to Natural Gas and to promote its development in the Kurdistan Region, the GOVERNMENT will grant specific benefits to the CONTRACTOR on principles materially similar to those contained in this Contract, including, consistent with the Kurdistan Region Oil and Gas Law, more generous provisions in respect of the recovery of Petroleum Costs and the sharing of Profit Petroleum than in respect of Crude oil.

Positive for GKP is that the Shaikan gas being produced is Associated Natural Gas - that gas released from solution at normal atmospheric pressure (simplified). The SH PSC has only one Clause #14.3 which speaks to the use & marketing of such Associated Gas.

Regarding Non-Associated Natural Gas (such as at Bina Bawi / Miran), The Shaikan PSC has EIGHT Clauses (#14.4 thru #14.11) which speak to both the marketing of such gas AND to resolving disagreements which may arise due to issues such as the Gas Marketing Operations / Work Program and Budget, AND to the improved terms which the contractor is entitled to request in the event of a commercial discovery of Associated Gas also being made.

IF the Genel- and Shaikan PSCs are identical (big IF perhaps, I don't have their PSC) then GKP can be seen to have a more straightforward issue to deal with – at present, although that may change in the future (Triassic gas).

The following is taken from Genel’s 2020-H1 results as per 6th Aug 2020:
“…As previously stated, Genel received documentation from the KRG in mid-April, and then further documents were received in June. This documentation did not adequately reflect the commercial concepts and risk sharing that were expected for the development of Bina Bawi's gas and oil resources.”

And the following from Genel’s Ops Update as per 3rd Nov-2020:
“…Our proposal highlights the need to engage regional gas buyers on volume and price discovery and to improve project definition by undertaking the detailed front-end engineering of both the upstream and midstream processing facilities.”

My simple view is that the KRG and the “regional gas buyers” might want the gas for almost nothing – leaving only the (substantial) Capex (gathering lines, processing, compressing, possibly even part of the distribution network) to be recovered by the operators.