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Sarnias… what is speculative at this point is how much dilution will have to come to get GAL to an income-producing position. Any thoughts on this?

"They may raise enough to push things along for a short period until the LOI investor invests in the bonds."

Just to reiterate, the December 2024 Revised Carry Agreement between PXC and ExGen means that ExGen can (and clearly) will block any project funding that potentially renders ExGen’s interest subordinated to a senior secured debt position, such as the one held by NIU, in the event of any default by PXC. What this means is that NIU (or any other corporate copper bond holder, having a similar or identical senior secured debt position as that of NIU) would be able to foreclose on the Empire assets (whether that was the 80% held by PXC or the 20% held by ExGen, but almost definitely both) even if ExGen was not the cause of the default. ExGen clearly recognised this fundamental point when PXC first put in place its Copper Bonds with NIU.

So just to clarify, the Empire project funding cannot and will not be by way of a bond structure, at least not in the same form as the existing NIU bond (ie secured against the Empire assets). ExGen has the power to ensure that that does not happen.

LOI investor will of course be aware of this, and will have been since early 2025. The plan of how he and PXC can deliver the funding that ExGen will agree to will become clear over the next few weeks, but I believe its wheels are already in motion.

"They may raise enough to push things along for a short period until the LOI investor invests in the bonds."

Any more cash runway hinges on how receptive NIU is to their own restructure/exit. Nothing moves without this. PXC/Indigo have until 30th April 2026 to get to a mutually acceptable resolution with NIU. The outcome of that dictates whether any more cash runway is required. I can’t imagine that any lender will be willing to put any more cash into keeping PXC alive unless or until they know whether NIU’s secured interest can be disposed of.

GLA

Forcella

I ran the numbers and did some cash flow forecasts based on existing accounts data based on what it costs for PXC to keep the lights on all the way through to Final

Investment Decision, permitting, construction of mine, and production; the settlement of the Riverfort dispute; the restructuring/exit of NIU; the conversion of LOI investor’s bridge capital to equity.

1 billion shares in issue by production in 4 years was the base case. There are currently 288m shares in issue.

DYOR

Sparky I would be very surprised to see this take any form of insolvency. Too much on the table for Indigo to allow that to happen IMO.

GLA

Certainly this week, I expect Indigo will convert the remainder up to the $1m cap. 5-day average VWAP they will want to be as low as possible, so it might be Thursday or Friday.

Tbcx…

“The reason I see EXG ultimately as kingmakers is that even NIU topping the creditor ranking order have zero operational experience running a mine, or even exploration property.”

Ultimately, I agree, but only if Indigo (as Sponsor) can work out a mutually-beneficial exit/restructure for NIU that disposes of the security encumbrance on the Empire title.

To resolve:

First, the dispute resolution with Riverfort, and

Second, the exit/restructure from/of NIU secure project finance.

GLA

Tbcx…

I am pretty sure that EXG/Jason Riley has been a massive influence behind bringing LOI Investor to the table, to take this forward, him having established along the way just how inept Wilkins and CFO were, and that Ryan McDermott is a good technical guy, but he’s no CEO. I’d imagine that McDermott will be retained for his technical input and knowledge, all other executive posts will be filled by people brought in by LOI investor.

AIMHO

Tbcx

I’m long on EXG aswell as PXC. Just to make the point that Ryan McDermott is not EXG. The common factor on the PXC and EXG BOD’s is Jason Riley. He is CEO of EXG, and he is also a NED of PXC.

EXG kingmaker? Almost, but not quite. EXG owns a 20% carried interest in Konnex Resources Inc. As it stands, NIU holds a secured interest in PXC and group companies (which we should assume includes PXC’s 80% operational interest in Konnex Resources Inc., the legal and beneficial owner of Empire Mine. By virtue of the fact that EXG’s carried interest is subordinate to NIU’s senior capital in any given situation, even if in the event of PXC’s default, the enforcement happened through no fault of EXG, or even if EXG wasn’t a party to the loan, that makes NIU kingmaker.

As I mentioned earlier in this thread, that probably was the reason why things went sour between NIU and PXC, when EXG realised that PXC had sold EXG’s share in Konnex down the river with the NIU deal, still with no sight of a Bankable Feasibility Study from PXC, causing EXG to apply the brakes on any further drawdown by claiming breaches in the Konnex JV, and which forced PXC back to the table to revise the Dec 24 Revised Carry Agreement, notably removing the need for PXC to provide a Bankable Feasibility Study. “No BFS, no construction funding framework, no consent to finance structures that prejudice EXG’s interest.” Fair play to Jason Riley, IMHO for standing his ground in the best interests of EXG, in the face of what I can only imagine would have been massive pressure from PXC executives to go along with their plan.

Personally speaking, with everything that I have learned about the players in this picture in recent times, thanks must go to Jason Riley for his strength, courage and resolve to dig-in and take a principled stance against the maverick slipshod approach to the project funding that had been taken by PXC up to December 2024. It’s his belief in this project from the outset, his integrity, and his absolute resolve to make it happen in the proper manner, that I am sure will prove to be a pivotal moment in ensuring that the Empire project enters production from the sure-footedness it should have a long time ago.

GLA

Congratulations, Tortoise.

MTSparky… LOI investor could come in and provide some form of bridge finance initially to dispose of the $5m secured NIU interest, in return for Board control, and once the Final Investment Decision has been reached, the plan becomes deliverable, the bridge finance gets converted into senior project finance or control equity. The removal of NIU security over Empire/Konnex Resources, is a project-defining deal IMO. It re-aligns ExGen with PXC so far as the project finance is concerned (remember EXG has final shout on approval of project funding), and it clears the path for clarity over project delivery.

It’s very possible that ExGen has (rightly) been blocking any further or alternative secured development funding going forward, on the basis that its 20% Carried Interest becomes subordinated in the event of enforcement, by any senior secured debt position over Empire, even when or if EXG was not the cause for the enforcement. It seems to me to have been completely reasonable for ExGen to have pushed for an alternative instrument to deliver the devcap on an unencumbered basis. Who can blame them in the circumstances?

Indigo as you said will continue to act as Sponsor. They are motivated to do so. Initially, they will convert all CLN’s up to the cap, probably next week, to give them around 30% of PXC. Once they have established the position of NIU and whether an exit/restructure is in reach, they will convert all the remainder after 30th April 2026 (which, depending on VWAP, will give them 40-45% of PXC, and effectively de facto control). I would expect them at that point to come back to fund more cash runway beyond “early Q2 2026” which coincidentally will be required around 30th April 2026…

both things will happen if/when NIU agree terms to exit/restructure.

LOI investor (devcap bridge) looks to me to be a much more pragmatic and deliverable solution. It gets rid of secured NIU $5m and re-aligns EXG back into the game. It brings LOI investor in to bring expertise into management of the venture and resolves devcap questions, and it gets Indigo focused on sponsorship of PXC cash flow to production.

Timescale to deliver production? Base Case 4 years from now, +/- 6-12 months either side depending on headwinds/tailwinds.

Dilution to get us there? Base case on my estimates will take us to 1bn shares in circulation by production (currently at 288m in issue).

Outcome of NIU is the key driver.

GLA

Oh Dear Alan in answer to your question I got Chat GPT to do the maths earlier based on current VWAP and remaining value of unconverted CLN’s held by Indigo. In a nutshell will get them to just over 30%. Enough to block/impact decisions.

InvestPest, if PXC goes into any form of insolvency, NIU have senior secured debt over PXC group company assets. NIU will sell it to the best bidder to get their $5m out. Complete freeforall.

Indigo Capital won’t give up their position where they have options. They’ll sooner keep the lights on and grow their debt position and stay in the game, than rank as an unsecured creditor in for $1.5m atm.

Forcella what we don’t know is who they flipped them to, as MT says. If the theory is correct, they could have been flipped to be held in trust. There are of course Governance issues regarding the transparency of that type of arrangement, but let’s face it, there is no Company Secretary in post, the CFO is out of the picture, the CEO who is running around now with lots to do would be easily excused for not having AIM CG at the top of his priority list. But he hasn’t got much time on his hands before that ‘reasonable transition period between appointments of Company Secretary’ will have run out.

By next week with a settled VWAP at around 1p, I’d say there will be a second tranche of conversions from Indigo, creating a new controlling interest. The new controlling interest is very likely going to be the undisclosed LOI investor. But I doubt that we will ever know that. If it is him, the LOI investor could then formally withdraw LOI interest on or before 30th April 2026, the share price will collapse again, and Indigo will then be in a position to pick up the remaining CLN’s, on fractions of a pence.

All will become clear in time. Let’s see whether this guy has got a heart.

GLA

*50% not 70%.

100% agree Sparky. The penny dropped a lot faster for you than me. Ive been through all sorts of different scenarios, and this is the only one that stacks up.

What I can say is that if this is correct, whomever this anonymous investor is, is a canny operator. He’s played himself right into the game for such a small value. I hope that he’s willing to take us on the ride with him. It feels like LTI’s have earned that over the last few years in this.

GLA

What I have learned (part 2):

3. Indigo Capital could have only been put into the position it finds itself in, from the inside of PXC. Whomever is the money behind the Indigo Capital position, is most likely the anonymous LOI investor, hence the reason for the anonymity. I still stand by my earlier comment that Wilkins and the CEO “are taking one for the team” to clear the path for Ryan to drive this deal home. Yes, it probably did come out in due diligence that the CFO and Chair were acting improperly. But it’s not that relevant given that the two of them are shareholders. It’s still in their interests for this deal to get over the line.

4. If we are to assume that Indigo convert the remainder of the balance up to $1m next week, that then gives the new controlling interest until the end of April 2026 to get further into PXC, to establish whether it makes sense to take a further stake, or whether to take the remainder of the shares out. The issue with that strategy is cash runway. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a restructuring of the loan to provide more cash to see the Company through to 30 April, or even farther, in return for a removal of the $250k CLN cap at 5.5p (that’s looking more like a ruse as each day goes by) and also more CLN’s or debt to equity swaps, which give Indigo more headroom on achieving 70% control that they need.

GLA

Andrew4444

I wholeheartedly agree with you on the psychology of investing. The “loss” only crystallises, the moment you sell.

PXC really is now, and always has been, a call on the resolve of Investors as to which way they will go… For those that have been here medium and long term, the stakes are just that bit higher… “stick at what I’ve got at (x)pence or twist and average down to (y)? What are my prospects for success if I do that?”

Since the madness of Monday’s 100+ posts on this BB, we’ve paired back to the “usual suspects” making comment on here. Today, just 4 trades in PXC for the session showing, and just this one solitary comment so far. The dust appears to have settled. What have I learned?

1. Cashburn. I knew the cash runway was short, but perhaps not as short as we currently have. After the initial panic set in, I actually think that is not a bad thing, because it means that the Company has to do something fast, to ensure its survival. It means we are not having to wait for a slow and painful death. In six weeks, if the Company has no solution for its cash burn, the situation becomes terminal some point after, because PXC will default on its coupon payments to NIU, and NIU subsequently forecloses on Empire, given that it has security over the Empire assets.

2. Indigo Capital. On the face of it, find themselves between the devil and the deep blue sea… or someone has smartly put them in a position to take control of PXC. Indigo already hold 10% of the existing share capital (27m shares) from its first round of conversion. If Indigo converted the remainder of what it could at the 20% discount rate up to the $1m cap, (assuming VWAP based on today’s sp, with Indigo’s agreed 20% discount rate on VWAP), that would give Indigo a further 94.6m new shares, equivalent of a 31.8% holding in PXC, based on a new total outstanding shareholding for PXC of 382.6m shares. If it then sits out the period between (say, next week, until the cap expires on 30th April), hits PXC with bad news after bad news in the period from now to 1st May, Indigo then could have put itself if it wanted) in the position of holding a controlling stake in the Company of somewhere between 30-70% depending on sp movement, for $2.1m. Now that’s what I call good business.

I think it’s fair to say, that if Indigo convert the remainder of what it can, we’ve got ourselves new owners, and management.

Question is whether it intends to take its ownership over 30%, sufficient to make a move to take it private, or whether it’s willing to take the ride as an AIM quoted Company. Depending on who this is that’s using Indigo as the Proxy, and yes, MT Sparky, I would agree with you that that is the most likely outcome of what is happening, will determine how this plays out from here.

GLA

NorbertDentressangle

8 Jan 2026 RNS…

“Exploration activities

CAML X, an 80% owned subsidiary of CAML, continued work on its exploration portfolio in Kazakhstan during Q4 2025. Four licences were active during the period, with two of those put forward for initial drilling programmes in 2026. Of the remaining two licences, one is recommended to be subject to further delineation work, and the other to be returned to the licensing authority. Towards the end of the quarter, three additional licences were awarded to CAML X.

CAML, via its wholly-owned subsidiary CAML XD, has also assessed a number of more advanced projects in Kazakhstan for potential acquisition. Negotiations are under way to acquire interests in certain of these projects.

The Group's 2026 exploration programme in Kazakhstan will include 5,500 metres of drill testing, over two or three projects.

During H2 2025, Aberdeen Minerals, in which CAML has a 28.4% shareholding, completed the 2025 drilling campaign at its Arthrath nickel-copper-cobalt project in northeast Scotland. This element of the programme comprised five holes for a total of 2,275 metres. The results from this drilling, along with drilling completed in 2024, confirmed the presence of semi-massive and massive sulphide mineralisation consistent with a conduit-related mineral system, and indicated strong potential for high-grade massive sulphides in an as-yet undrilled area to the southwest of the 2024-25 drilling.

CAML holds warrants to invest a further £2 million in Aberdeen, and in Q4 2025 agreed to exercise £0.85 million of the total in order to fund a Phase 3 programme at Arthrath during 2026. This will comprise geophysics and drilling on this southwestern target and potential strike extensions, over approximately six months. Exercise of this tranche of warrants, which remains subject to final documentation, will increase CAML's shareholding in Aberdeen to 32.6%. Agreement was also reached whereby the expiry date of the balance of CAML's warrants will be extended to allow the results of this Phase 3 programme to be evaluated.”

I’m (possibly) one of the few PI’s that considers a conservative dividend to safeguard a cash pile for operational acquisition and/or organic growth of CAML to be appropriate and sensible, at this stage of the Company’s evolution.

The pullback on the size of dividend, in lieu of the share buyback re-shaped the investment profile of this company, from solid cash cow tailor-made for retired PI’s, to still solid, cash calf, more credible balanced business proposition, that appeals to wider markets.

Yes, metal prices have been on the rise in the interim period, but I think that it is due to a combination of factors why the sp has appreciated in recent months.

GLA

AIMHO

MT… so a topic of conversation on this and other BB’s at the time that NIU bond deal went sour, was the question of whether PXC could use Bond capital to pay down the coupon. In usual circumstances, where capital is raised as development capital (which in this case, it was) there will invariably be a clause in the contract prohibiting the use of the capital for P and L expenditure, which, by its definition, includes the servicing of the coupon. The prohibition on coupon servicing will probably have been specific in the contract aswell. Given where the NAV for Empire is, give NIU any opportunity to foreclose on it for the £5m it is in for, and it will take it, no question. Any breach of duty, contract or performance under the terms of the NIU deal will automatically be terminal for PXC.

The LOI was specifically a non-binding LOI, so no legal standing. Plus I highly doubt that Indigo has anything to do with the Investor. The situation is that in 2024, PXC entered into its original arrangement with Riverfort to provide working capital for PXC in a deal that was very favourable to PXC, but contingent on PXC securing at least $25m from a bond raise, for PXC to benefit from those favourable terms. With the NIU deal in 2024, it appeared to everyone that PXC had pulled it off and delivered on the Riverfort condition, only then for NIU to pull out. It left PXC in 2025 having to draw down additional funds on the Riverfort deal, but the cash costs and fees were just too punitive to continue with Riverfort on that basis whilst they waited for the bond deal to arrive, which of course it hasn’t.

The Indigo deal at the end of 2025 was concluded because it was cheaper to service month to month, which matters when you’re trying to survive to the next funding event, but it has come with a greater dilutive effect upon shareholders. It was probably the right thing to do. It’s possible that the Directors that are now suspended may have “taken one for the team” by doing what they have done, although at this stage it’s difficult to say with any certainty whether that is the situation.

The most sensible solution for the Company right now will be to get into a room with Indigo, to establish how it can structure something around a settlement with Riverfort, and that will ensure that the Company does not default on the payment of the Coupon to NIU. That is going to come at a cost to shareholders. Sub-1p incoming I envisage.

GLA

GLA.

MTSparky

Three fundamentals here to unpack…

First is the position of Indigo Capital. Did the Company make misrepresentations to Indigo in securing funding in December 2025? If it did, Indigo could claim that it never would have made the funding in the first place had it known of the Company’s actual state of affairs. Solid grounds for rescission? Probably Indigo’s strongest claim, which will also give them options in how they feature in where this goes from here.

Second, is the position of Riverfort, and the early repayment of the Riverfort Debt. The legality of that is challengable on all sorts of different levels. On one of those, Riverfort has fought its way back into the picture, alongside Indigo, on a contractual point regarding prepayment. Riverfort might have grounds to argue the opposite of Indigo, that it intended to exercise the CLN’s and would have done had PXC given prior notice of its intention to prepay. I’m also not sure that the Company was in a position to repay Riverfort the whole sum due. Given the indebtedness of the Company, given the Company’s known solvency position at the time that it repaid the sum, there’s a fair argument to say that a repayment in full to Riverfort was disproportionate and the repayment constituted a preference, when the Company was trading insolvently.

Third, is the position of NIU. NIU’s £5m debt is secured over the Empire assets. Is PXC maintaining its coupon payments to NIU or is PXC in breach? I can only assume (and hope) that the coupon payments are being properly maintained. The moment that they are not, NIU will have the power to foreclose on the Empire assets, assuming that Konnex Resources Inc, is included in the schedule of ‘Group’ Companies on which NIU took security from PXC. At this juncture, it appears that NIU is in the box seats IMO. It has options at its disposal in the event of a default of PXC’s payment of the coupon. It also has a potential claim regarding repayment to Riverfort being a ‘preference’, if it chooses not to/can’t foreclose.

It’s game over for Riverfort, Indigo (and of course PXC) if NIU foreclose on Empire, so it is in the interests of Riverfort and Indigo to get into dialogue with PXC in how it can ensure that PXC stays alive. It could be the golden ticket that PXC can use to buy itself a lifeline from either/both Riverfort/Indigo to get out of the mess PXC finds itself in.

Fourth, any new institutional money coming in to salvage PXC is highly unlikely; PXC is a red flag unless or until the decks are cleared governance-wise and that’s not going to happen in the time that it will take before PXC’s cash runs dry.

Fifth is the undisclosed investor. If he is savvy enough and well-advised as I think, he would be doing exactly what he’s done: he’s got close enough to the action to find out what’s going on, and has held off long enough to allow all the excrement from the PXC barrel to float to the surface.

Let’s see how th