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Does anyone have a view on the chances of ARA taking AEX private before this puppy goes north from here?

MT Sparky

The only thing I would say is that a closed period doesn’t necessarily mean that a favourable outcome is guaranteed, to whatever it is that the Board are mulling over. I would say the current SP reflects this point, and the point that the company is fast running out of cash.

Likewise Roxi, MPE has been one of my best performers for 2024. Solid fundamentals, underpinned by prudent diligent experienced management team, with clear strategic targets for growth. I’ll be looking to add into 2025 and beyond.

Happy New Year to you and to all MPE investors.

Thanks Winalot. I shall hopefully see you in there.

Thanks Winalot. I’m not a part of that and that sounds like good advice to get on that. Is there a link that you know of to it please?

And let me say, I am genuinely interested in what you have to say. And I’ll tell you why: If the most sceptical man in the room can set everything down on the table as to why he’s so sceptical, and I can still answer “yes” to the question: “if this is true would I still invest in this company?” Then I know that I am in good shape to hold steady and see this through. If there is anything in there that draws a “no” then I will of course investigate that further (a) for truth and, if it is true, (b) for its risk. I’m really interested in anything that I’ve not already made myself aware of; the thing that I want to avoid being caught blindside on. It might not exist but let’s see where it takes us.

That list of unknowns regarding AEX is as I said below a long one. How much is actually unknown though?

1. Volume of Gas

I’m sure I’ve seen RNS’s produced previously regarding 3D seismic surveys, well logs, core data, and reservoir engineering data to quantify:

Net reservoir thickness (from seismic thickness maps).

Porosity and gas saturation (from well calibration and seismic inversion).

Recovery factors and volumetrics.

Is there any reason why AEX cannot still rely upon this data to be accurate to be able to quantify the volumes of gas in reservoirs?

Let’s start with that one for starters.

I appreciate you taking the time to answer these questions. I am hoping and trusting that you will honestly and sincerely support this genuine enquiry to understand whether your scepticism is enough to cause me to change course and invest elsewhere.

The laws of supply and demand I am familiar with. The point that you make that there are more sellers than buyers in the market to cause a downward price I am familiar with this too. I understand this. The “why is this?” bit is what I was really looking looking for. With such a long list of unknown risks that you say are present with AEX, do you mind me asking what the motivation was for you to invest in this pup, and why you didn’t invest in something else perhaps that offered a bit more certainty? Why are you still here?

Thanks mjapac, RogerJolly and Stuart1062 for sharing your thoughts on the topic. All in themselves credible motivations for RoJo’s position. I hope that the man himself can find time today to share with us his wisdom, from the horse’s mouth, as it were, of what he and the market knows that I and the rest of us seem to be missing on AEX. RoJo, the floor is all yours, Sir…

Well that’s the thing you see. I don’t understand what it is that you think the market and you can see that I can’t. What am I missing do you think, that’s actually causing the downward price action? You seem to know better than anyone as to the reason for that?

RoJo, can we just unpack the comment that you left on this thread 22 Nov 2024 20:40:

“You would think, assuming all the news is as good as you think it is, that the SP would have benefited, but no, it hasn't. Down again!”

What is it that you think the market (and you) knows that the rest of us don’t?

Rocka999 and the relevance of this “information” to this BB is?

Adastra, are you saying that VLX is a buy, based upon [what you understand to be] the shareholding structure of the BOD’s?

Wookie your point re legal costs is a valid one, but not the biggest cost I am worried about. The on-cost of leveraging a deal that’s going to be anywhere near TTG’s true value, or at least acceptable to the TTG board is my main concern, and more particularly, how VLX proposes to pay for any acquisition of TTG, and whether it will involve further dilution of VLX shareholders. I can’t envisage a situation where VLX won’t require a Rights Issue to fund an acquisition of TTG, primarily because TTG’s acquisition is not (and never has been) central to VLX’s business strategy going forward. It’s an opportunistic punt from VLX at best, purely on the basis that TTG hit some production difficulties in the US a couple of months ago, sending its share price to 70-odd pence, down from about 150p. Up to that point, TTG was doing just fine. Would VLX have had a stab at TTG had the US production issues not materialised? Highly unlikely.

Posters on the TTG board couldn’t quite believe that the US issues could seriously have had a 50% discount on the value of TTG. The sell-off seemed overdone. A recovery to around 100p was initially expected, but it didn’t materialise. The TTG Q3 trading update then came out just before VLX announced its proposed offer. Nothing was said by the TTG Board about the US production issues, whether they had been resolved, or even whether a timescale or cost had been established to determine the matter. At that point, the TTG Board would have known of interest from VLX and another as-yet unnamed party, and perhaps for those reasons, the Board of TTG decided to keep completely silent about the US operational update as part of its defence. How could VLX or any party submit a meaningful offer if the extent of the TTG US production issues hadn’t been disclosed? Conversely, it’s the market’s lack of knowledge of the extent of the US production issues that has been weighing so heavily upon the share price. The TTG share price recovered to 110p on the news of VLX’s interest on Friday.

In the meantime, it leaves VLX making a lot of speculative assumptions in terms of the true value of TTG, and perhaps that’s why the market is discounting the value of VLX atm. Whether Rothschild’s old school bully boy attitude towards the acquisition of TTG helps the situation remains to be seen.

GLA

Https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/VLX/publication-of-investor-presentation-qykxtew1ok4o7kb.html

It’s interesting to see the inner workings of a Rothschild and how one goes about its business. Battle of Waterloo all over again… get yourself into a position where you have a foot in both camps, then hit your opponent over the head very hard, until victory is in sight…

GLA

Respectfully, Adastra, I am not convinced by your argument. The reason why TTG ended up with its sp at 70-odd pence, is because of production issues in its US division, that the market did not like. At its last update, there was nothing from the TTG Board to suggest that that problem had been resolved. So when you say that VLX has done its due diligence, how on earth do you suppose that VLX has been able to get a handle on the production issues in the US when the Board of TTG have been particularly quiet about the whole matter?

To me, the market has priced-in the liability of sorting-out the TTG production issues, hence the reason why the VLX share price has taken a knock. It’s a complete speculative gamble on the part of the VLX Board that the TTG production issue is not as bad as they might hope it will be. More dilution on the horizon for VLX shareholders? There’s a good chance of it, given how heavily geared VLX already is.

GLA

VLX already diluted once this year and currently has debt of $200m. With TTG having a better all-cash offer than VLX’s offers from an undisclosed third party, it’s difficult to see how VLX has any headroom to take this any further forward, if it was to make an improved all-cash offer. VLX share price made some recovery since TTG’s RNS today. Seems the market isn’t keen on the acquisition at VLX’s end.

Capital Repayment to shareholders proposed in today’s RNS. Thank-you to the Board for again recognising shareholder contribution to the continued success of the business, despite being a tough few years’ trading that we’ve had here.

GLA

Not sure what materially has changed here to drop another 25%. I read it that PXC remains in the same holding pattern as it has been for the last three months, looking for funding for the underground sulphites.

The market clearly doesn’t like it though.

GLA

RightOn

“As a result, and RESOURCES PERMITTING [emphasis added], we now plan to access the underground deposit as early as next year by driving an adit into the high-grade sulphide ores, in order to blend them with oxide ore to enhance cashflow. In our recent drilling campaign we recovered sulphide core containing over 8% copper, compared with a 0.66% grade in our oxide reserves, and a global average of less than 0.5%.”

Taken from Chairman’s Q3 2024 Statement, 26th September 2024.

Is it possible that funding for this underground element of the proposed work stream is one of the issues that management is currently grappling with? Underground mining brings a wholly different risk profile with it than the open pit project proposed, in which NIU are vested. Maybe underground mining activities don’t fit in to NIU’s investment profile? Is there sufficient data available for the due diligence exercise for investment to be secured on the underground sulphide project?

And even if (and it’s a big IF) PXC is permitted to service the NIU coupon with capital from the bonds, is this the most effective use of that capital to do so?

What options does PXC have in the market right now to deliver on and resolve these questions?

Big questions that I believe are the reason for the silence and delay right now. Big questions that I believe open PXC to the high possibility right now of a placing.

GLA

I said a few weeks ago 6p but I think on todays showing you’ll be about on the money, Antibacterial. Froth settling and the cold light of reality finally showing the true value of PXC in its current predicament. PXC’s vision of £1bn market cap is an ambitious one from here… GLA