Member Info for Bridgedogg1

So Tyra bought in and many of the other regular bashers disappeared so I expect they did the same. Large buys indicating some in the know are now making a move ? Let’s see what today brings..

How are 3 drills going to be paid for?

Anyone spot the wording issue with the twitter update - '..blowdown test today tomorrow...' I wonder if they werent sure whether it would be yesterday or today and forgot to delete one or if it was going to run accross both days ('today and tomorrow'). Either way should be done by COB today. Update tomorrow? Heres hoping its nominations for first gas.

GLA

Seems unlikely

Are the asset good? How many companies have gone bankrupt trying to make money out of them?

What do we think the price will be on the close after first gas RNS? We will have fairly regular flow updates and side track updates. Then its on to other licences and geothermal. I see this jumping up then rising steadily into the 3s.

I don’t buy that there’s any major issue, just teething problems with complex mechanical and electrical systems.

'We do expect further positive updates this week.' - not quite a commitment to first gas - maybe they are learning their lesson ? - but suggests that first gas could be this week.

Sorry but no its not the same. Biogas needs to be upgraded to a higher quality of biomethane for gas injection. The biomethane must then be sold to a shipper before it is injected into the grid. Once the biogas has been upgraded to biomethane, it will be transferred to network entry facility. From here, the gas will be metered and the quality monitored. An odorant called Mercaptan will be injected to give the characteristic ‘gas’ smell. Once these stages have been completed, the gas can be injected into the distribution network for transportation.

We are completing the above ourselves so as stated there is no easy onshore template to follow.

Holding up fairly well considering no comms…

No point selling now and the delay gives an opportunity to get in/add at low prices pre gas. Many on here relishing the delay, probably those waiting to get in on first gas. We know gas in the system with no issue, just computer glitches causing the hold up. I also think it’s been a little more drawn out on the sign offs than expected

“ We note that we are the only onshore combined extraction and gas processing facility connected to the transmission system to have been constructed in decades and we had few parallels to follow outside of the refineries themselves”

If RBL isnt secured bond conversion price drops to 13.5p!
I still thing the current level of debt will be a real problem in securing more lending.
How can you get RBL when you already have debt over the companies assets? isnt that already RBL?

Rereading the terms of the bond it’s just staggering; the discounts, the exercise price, the warrants, the interest…

Quite a few of the derampers are waiting for first gas before investing which I think is the safe approach. Probably relishing the delays, Shame there’s so much ammo for them. Intraday Monday is my (latest) guess.

Wow Bobrad is always right. Must be a millionaire.

You are missing the debt

As Ive mentioned before this company needs to increase production to the 3k mark, give itself some financial headroom before anyone cares about the magic 1bn bbls (accross 17 horizons and 100+ locations). Production is declining and getting closer to the hedge. And we have demonstrated that we cant meet all expenses when only the hedge is being met. The hoped for jump in share price for the next placing hasn't materialized. Arthur has clearly signaled another significant placing is inbound. What about the £10m pipeline required for shannon that is required to ease pressure and allow an increase in production? Is that all now on the back burner? Will the system cope with 3 new horizontals without it?

I owuldnt say its red or black; the longer the delay the less profits we make. As long as we can meet the hdge requirements and hte hedge provider continues to be flexible in light of the increasing forward prices then we should be OK. Clearly if the sidetrack fails then thats another story but who would have thought we would be here with gas prices at 10x what we expected. Its difficult to understand the sheer number of missed deadlines so expect to be disappointed in the short term with Angus but we will get there eventually and I dont think the delay is going to be a serious issue unless there are anu major problems reported. until then it all seems to be going well with the gas moving through the system. If its just computer glitches and certification issues that is just a little time to sort and no big problem. I cant imagine what the issue could be at this stage they would cause any further serious delay. BUT it is very frustrating as we move into the final final stages of first gas, as investors we want daily updates but that's just not feasible.

Rolling over as I suggest would allow for unhedged production assuming sidetrack in place by the end of Q3. The significant headroom I refer to is with the side track in place and the Q3 hedge rolled over and spread accross H1 2023, it would take us up to around 50% unheadged production. We've been told that sidetrack spud date will come with first gas, due after around 2 weeks of steady production. The big question will be how quick from spud to production (which I cant find). The sidetrack is relatively short so hopefully not too long.

My interpretation is that any unmet hedge from Q3 will be rolled over and spread across Q1 and Q2 hedge requirements. That gives us significant headroom for the rest of the year and we still have around 50% unhedged production in H1, assuming sidetrack in place. A intraday/Monday RNS to confirm first gas and spud date would be welcome and not unlikely IMO

Maybe the hedge rollover was a clue that the delay would be longer than a week. We should have been given more info on this, I am wondering now if ‘a portion’ is an agreement to rollover the hedge until first gas is achieved. We weren’t given a new timescale for first gas following the electrical delay but the indication was a delay of 4 or 5 days, atleast that’s how I read it. Hopefully an intraday RNS with some good news. Even if not I expect a bit of buying this afternoon for a Monday RNS.