Member Info for Bridgedogg1

Seems like the delay is with the control system rather than the gas. I was expecting atleast an update today because the progress updates have been fairly regular so would have expected something if there was more delays. Hopefully no progress update means imminent first gas…. I’m still glass half full on this but would like to here something before the end of the week, if not there will rightly be a little sell off

Gw71 please don’t bring your sad vendetta against ocelot over here, atleast keep it to the ukog board which is full of drivel in any case.

HITS - 160 posts in the last 30 days, all negative on Angus? Why? And they aren’t just quick comments, you’ve put in paragraph upon paragraph in each post. Is that really how you want to spend your life? What’s the point? Serious question.

“ …. we have found ourselves keeping pace with regulations”

Could you please confirm
1/. that Angus have completed and submitted all of the necessary reports for National Grid approval for connection to theNational Transmission System?
These include, inter alia, a Gas Quality Schedule, a Metering schedule, and a Telemetry Schedule.
2/. Has National Grids written approval been received for these and all other requirements needed to start transmitting gas into the National Grid?
3/. Can you confirm that Nat Grid require a minimum of seven days to consider these reports before granting permissions?
Many thanks,
John Asked on 1 August 2022
Yes. All done

Once this is done we also have to look foward to:

Brockham: "Plans for a reperforation of the BRX4-Z well in the Portland reservoir, which would also involve abandonment of the Kimmeridge layer in that well, for which planning permission was recently obtained, are being discussed with our other regulators."

& Lidsey: "We hope to update further on this field, including the possibility of side-track, when the team resources can be taken off Saltfleetby which is currently and rightly occupying our overwhelming attention."

Sillybuttons, the 'hedge bedwetters' are those that say we cant possibly meet the hedge requirements, or produce any gas, or possibly have any positive outcome.

I was just looking at the Q3 figures rather than the Q4 figures which are slightly higher.

I'd say there is a fair amount of leeway built into the hedge, indeed we could roll over the entire of Q3 hedge to H1 and still have some unhedged gas sales if that what it takes. That would be far from ideal obviously but all the deramping over rolling over a few weeks hedge at no cost is 'bedwetting' IMO

Thanks HITS, so the hedge is around 50% of the production and after 9 months it reduces to around 45%. So at current gas prices we can expect approx. £3.5-£4m revenue per month once the side track is online, assuming targets are met?

HITS, if Angus had kept all their promises then you wouldn't be able to currently buy at 1.35p? It must have been a difficult hold and sorry if you lost money, but that doesn't change the opportunity available for those getting in now. Of-course you have to consider all the missed deadlines in the past when you make your investment but that doesn't mean gas wont come and profits wont be made in the future.

Thanks yes just worked this out also @ 140t/d. Well thats good news, just needs to be a tightly run projetc with an eye on the bigger picture and ultimate prize.

Hi Brom, good to see you over here.

Yes, filter essential in these parts.

Re the hedge bed-wetters, IF first gas comes within the next couple of weeks and IF the sidetrack follows shortly after and is successful the hedged amounts being rolled over wont be very significant. From Oct the higher hedge volume is around 1/3 of the expected production, and that decreases after 6 months. Spreading July hedge requirements across Q & Q2 isn't going to be any sort of problem, we will still be producing over half unhedged. Considering there has been a delay to first gas its very reassuring that there is the flexibility to the hedge fulfillment. I feel fairly confident about first gas soon and volumes, the big risk for me comes with the sidetrack. It needs to successful for this to work. If it is then we can pay off debt, accumulate some capital, do another sidetrack, fund other projects. If there was no risk there wouldn't be a market.

Ok so the hedge amount is much less than I thought 70% without the sidetrack which is just the cherry on top. Not sure what all the fuss is about on here about not meeting the hedge requirements? Just trolls? Hedge doesn’t seem that onerous, especially considering the initial 6 months are expected to produce more than the projections due to the shut in. I think the revenue figures, especially after the sidetrack will surprise a lot of people. I’m very optimistic. Another sidetrack in 2023 and we will be rolling in it. And after the hedge in 3 years with all debt paid off…

Can anyone confirm the exact terms of the hedge in terms of amount of gas. I think I read it was approx 70% of production which would put it at around 3mmscf/d of the expected 5mmscf/d. Also the hedge changes over different periods which again I assume is less in the initial period pre side track.

Calcs on income once all up and running:
3mmscf/d @ 43p/therm= £360k/month
2mmscf/d @ 375p/therm= £3m/month

Can anyone confirm above?

Also “We would like to open up the southern lobe of the field in 2023 where we see low cost side tracks for high potential returns”

It just seems that Prem with have 3 years paying back the cost of the pilot plant at a discount? What’s the benefit to Prem? How long until a proper plant is constructed? 7 years?

It’s like sad version of Groundhog Day on the board, definitely on of the worst on LSE.

Hopefully a few days to first gas and sidetrack spud date confirmation. I’m betting RNS tomorrow. GLA holders.

Silver light- for example when a small company with a depressed share price hits first gas, quickly followed by sidetrack, when gas prices are at all time highs?

Hi, can the existing compressors be upgraded to produce more gas if needed. Thankyou. Asked on 1 July 2022

We left space for a third compressor in order to handle any potential pressure drop in the two existing wells. If the sidetrack pressure keeps the average across the three high, then we could use the third compressor to increase flow rates. All of the units were sized around 10mmscfd (the target production after side-track) but were build with a degree of redundancy and subject to risk assessment we could increase flow beyond that amount. That assessment will be easier to do once we have steady flow

Hi, is the company still as upbeat and confident about the economics of the Saltfleetby field – particularly as it now has 100 ownership – as it ever was?

There is a lot of negativity on the chat boards about the delays and financial consequences. Asked on 1 August 2022

We are definitely more confident about the economics of the field. The forward curve is now considerably higher than at any time before in the history of prices at the balancing point. We have also been fortunate in that we have been able to roll a portion of the hedge into future periods that enjoy even higher forward prices – this is not possible to do without incurring large upfront costs when forward prices are lower than front month prices. Meeting hedge obligations had been a great concern of investors.

Due to the delay of the first gas, do we have a date or month on when the sidetrack will happen ? Asked on 1 August 2022

We did advise in April that we require a “few weeks of steady-state production prior to works” commencing. This is to allow time to clear the site of post-commissioning personnel and focus the attention of the permanent site team on the drilling operation. We have not advised the market of a specific revised spud date but will do so at First Gas.

SIDETRACK SPUD DATE TO BE ANNOUNCED WITH FIRST GAS, PROBABLY THIS WEEK!

Why are targets being missed. First gas was supposed to be on the 1st of June. Why has there been so much delay.

Asked on 1 August 2022
There have been specific issues around equipment but essentially the Company underestimated the installation hurdles arising from a sophisticated and all embracing computer control system and the sheer volume of testing, inspection and certification involved in dealing in very high pressure gas in the UK onshore.

There are no easy HSE parallels with offshore platforms in this regard – all of which have particular design and certification issues associated with dealing with confined spaces, yet we have found ourselves keeping pace with regulations which were largely designed for the offshore.

Equally the cost base for onshore high pressure gas is driven by transmission and distribution operators. Given they can recharge all their capital costs ulimately to the unlucky consumer, over the last two decades both timescales for build and costs have ballooned.

We note that we are the only onshore combined extraction and gas processing facility connected to the transmission system to have been constructed in decades and we had few parallels to follow outside of the refineries themselves.

1. Wellhead gas introduced into the system
2. Final commissioning of the compressor, electrical and instrument testing
3. Minor electrical and instrumentation work on the storage tanks
4. Commissioning the compressor
5. Stabilized production
6. First nominations (sales) planned

I believe we are somewhere between 5 and 6