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I think Katstrangler has read this right…..no one sells at a loss.

I think you may be on to something…..I did a comparison of August trading against Sept but only from the 11th….

Comparison Summary:

September 11–30: 168.5 million shares traded

Entire August: 64.0 million shares traded.

Conclusion: PANR trading volume surged dramatically in the second half of September—more than 2.6× higher than the entire month of August. This spike likely reflects a major event or investor reaction around September 11th, when over 54 million shares traded in a single day.

Did anyone else notice these two trades from 26 Sept appearing today?

26-Sep-25 16:04:54 24.90 100,000 Unknown* 24.55 24.80 24.90k O

26-Sep-25 16:04:54 24.90 -100,000 Unknown* 24.55 24.80 -24.90k O

I asked AI to analyze and this is what it came back with…..

Suspicious Trade Behavior on PANR – 26-Sep-2025

Mirror Trades at the Same Timestamp

* Exact same time: 16:04:54

* Same price: 24.90

* Same volume: 100,000 shares

* Opposite directions: One buy, one sell (or possibly a reversal)

This looks like a wash trade—a buy and sell of the same security at the same price and time, often between accounts controlled by the same entity. These are typically used to:

* Artificially inflate volume

* Create false market activity

* Manipulate closing price (especially since this occurred right at market close) Impact on Price Perception

* The trade at 24.90 is above the ask range (24.55–24.80), suggesting it may have been designed to print a higher closing price.

* If this was the last trade of the day, it could mislead investors or trigger technical signals.

Why It Matters

Wash trading is illegal under most market regulations (e.g., SEC Rule 10b-5 in the U.S.) because it distorts true supply and demand. If this pattern repeats or aligns with insider activity, it could warrant investigation.

The $250 Million Estimation

Pantheon has indicated that the Gas Sales Precedent Agreement (GSPA) with AGDC could be monetized for at least $250 million. This figure is based on:

* Volume Commitment: Up to 500 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd) of natural gas for 20 years, totaling around 3.64 trillion cubic feet (Tcf)—a substantial portion of their estimated 6+ Tcf resource base.

* Base Price: The agreed price is $1/mmBtu, with flexibility for reductions depending on financing and other commercial arrangements.

* Take-or-Pay Structure: This ensures revenue certainty, as AGDC would be obligated to pay for minimum daily volumes even if they don’t take full delivery.

* Strategic Timing: The deal supports Phase 1 of the Alaska LNG project, which is being fast-tracked to address an energy crisis in Southcentral Alaska. This urgency adds value to Pantheon’s gas supply.

Share Price Implications

If the full Gas Sales Agreement (GSA) is finalized by the June 2025 target, it could:

* De-risk the project: Investors love certainty, and a binding GSA would validate Pantheon’s resource base and infrastructure access.

* Boost valuation: A forward sale or monetization of the gas stream could inject capital, reduce dilution risk, and fund oil development.

* Signal strategic credibility: It shows Pantheon can execute complex commercial deals, which enhances investor confidence.

$250 million estimate is well-founded, and the market could respond swiftly once the agreement is finalized.

Oil + Gas = Strategic Valuation Boost

Here’s how the numbers stack up:

1. Gas Monetization Potential

* Estimated forward sale value: $250 million

* This alone could represent a significant portion of Pantheon’s current market cap.

2. Oil Resource Base

* Pantheon estimates 2 billion barrels of recoverable oil across Ahpun and Kodiak.

* Even a conservative valuation of $5–$10 per barrel in the ground implies a potential asset value of $10–$20 billion.

3. Current Share Price

* As of the latest data, Pantheon trades at ~24.85 GBp (about $0.30 USD).

* Market cap is still modest compared to the scale of its resource base.

4. Valuation Upside

If Pantheon secures:

* A binding gas agreement ($250M),

* Successful flow tests at Dubhe and future wells,

* Final Investment Decision (FID) for Ahpun,

Then analysts could begin valuing the company on a Net Asset Value (NAV) basis, which might imply a multi-bagger upside from current levels.

Hypothetical Share Price Impact

Let’s say the market begins pricing in:

* $250M gas deal,

* $10B oil NAV (discounted),

* Minimal dilution,

Even a partial recognition of this value could push the share price into the £1–£2 range over time, depending on execution and sentiment.

Of course, this is speculative and depends on operational success, financing, and macro conditions and combining oil and gas monetization could unlock substantial shareholder value.

I agree…. Fracking Initiation begins in the SMD-B reservoir tomorrow…which has already exceeded pre-drill expectations with a 565 ft true vertical thickness hydrocarbon column. Big few weeks ahead. :-) Really looking forward to the news flow.

Sorry….got that slightly wrong :-)

Key Facts from Pantheon’s Statement

Pantheon expects to convert its GSPA with 8 Star Alaska into a take-or-pay contract in a time frame consistent with AKGL FID. The Company would not enter into a contract that contains delivery obligations (consistent with the buyer’s volume commitments) until testing of the Dubhe-1 well confirms long term deliverability. Previous guidance has been that such a contract would be capable of supporting up to $250m in project debt based on the expected build up to plateau rates. Gas revenues can only commence once Alaska LNG Phase 1 is operational.

* GSPA (Gas Sales and Purchase Agreement) with 8 Star Alaska is expected to convert into a take-or-pay contract.

* The contract is structured to support up to $250 million in project debt, based on expected plateau production rates.

* Gas revenues will only begin once Alaska LNG Phase 1 is operational.

* Dubhe-1 well testing must confirm long-term deliverability before binding delivery obligations are accepted.

What This Implies for Valuation

The $250 million figure is not a full asset valuation — it’s the debt capacity supported by the gas contract. That means:

* Lenders believe the gas stream is secure enough to back $250 million in financing.

* This implies a minimum cash flow expectation over the life of the contract — likely significantly higher than $250 million in total revenue.

Let’s assume this debt is backed by only a portion of the expected gas revenue stream (e.g., 50–60%). That would imply:

* Total expected gas revenue = $250 million ÷ 0.5 = $500 million

* Or more conservatively: $250 million ÷ 0.6 = $417 million

Now divide by 1.14 billion shares:

* $417 million ÷ 1.14 billion ≈ $0.37 per share

* $500 million ÷ 1.14 billion ≈ $0.44 per share

Gas only……no oil…..takes us to over £1…..think about that…..Qube and all the other shorters…..the window of opportunity is closing rapidly….imo.

I like this….. What is the status of your Gas Sales and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) with 8 Star Alaska, and when could revenues begin?

Pantheon expects to convert its GSPA with 8 Star Alaska into a take-or-pay contract in a time frame consistent with AKGL FID. The Company would not enter into a contract that contains delivery obligations (consistent with the buyer’s volume commitments) until testing of the Dubhe-1 well confirms long term deliverability. Previous guidance has been that such a contract would be capable of supporting up to $250m in project debt based on the expected build up to plateau rates. Gas revenues can only commence once Alaska LNG Phase 1 is operational.

Pantheon website Q and A updated…..

Development Risks, Well Results and Flow Testing - Dubhe 1

What are the key risks investors should be aware of in successfully developing the resource over the next 12 months, and how are you mitigating them?

The main uncertainty for the near term remains the specific flow characteristics of the Ahpun SMD-B reservoir. Pantheon has already demonstrated a working petroleum system, with hydrocarbons brought to surface in multiple penetrations, so the remaining risk is centred on sustained reservoir performance. The complete production profile: pressures, rates, compositions, and gas-oil ratios, is not yet known with precision. Dubhe-1 was drilled specifically to obtain this data, which will inform well placement and surface facility design.

Some of the SMD-C high case area seems to be outside of our lease boundaries. What are the implications of this?

The areas of the upside case that are outside the lease boundary were not included in the resource assessment and are probably too thin to be developed in isolation for the time being. If a third party were to lease those acres, Pantheon would benefit commercially from co-operating in providing processing and transportation services on a tariff basis.

What IP30 or flow rate guidance can you provide, and how will success be defined for Dubhe-1?

Pantheon has not issued guidance on expected flow rates. For context, Alkaid-2 achieved an IP30 of 505 bpd (oil + NGL) from the lateral in the Alkaid horizon in 2022. A single stage frac in the topset SMD-B horizon produced 140 bpd of marketable liquids in 2023. Dubhe-1 results will be published as soon as reliable data is available. Success will be judged on whether Dubhe-1 demonstrates sustained commercial flow defined as rates that would support development when scaled to full-length laterals. Scaling to 10,000 ft laterals and multiple wells will be modeled once Dubhe-1 flow rate and fluid composition data are available.

When will flow results be available, and how long will testing last?

Flow back will begin immediately after stimulation is completed. Results will be released as soon as reliable data is available. A testing period of 30–90 days is typical for appraisal wells in Alaska and we are planning on that basis. We are currently mobilising equipment and will share the completion programme when available.

How will you be approaching testing duration & gas handling throughout the process?

Flow back will begin immediately after stimulation. Alaska allows flaring, subject to first obtaining permits during appraisal. Limitations on gas handling are not expected to constrain oil rates through the 30-90 day testing period.

Some more on this….. https://www.pantheonresources.com/index.php/investors/q-and-a

Queb trying to get a position to buy back ? ….thats my guess…..Stas may add :-)

Pantheon’s Role in the Alaska LNG Project

* Pantheon signed a Gas Sales Precedent Agreement (GSPA) with 8 Star Alaska LLC (the project company led by Glenfarne) to supply up to 500 million cubic feet per day of natural gas for 20 years.

* The gas would come from Pantheon’s leases on Alaska’s North Slope, including the Ahpun East leases.

* The agreed price is $1/mmBtu, with potential reductions depending on additional considerations.

Implications of Korean Involvement

* POSCO INTERNATIONAL’s early surge reflects investor optimism about Korean capital and expertise entering the project.

* If Korean corporations like POSCO formalize participation, it could accelerate financing, construction, and credibility of the pipeline.

* That momentum benefits Pantheon directly, as its gas is already earmarked for Phase 1 of the pipeline….

What This Could Mean for PANR Stock

* Investor sentiment: Positive developments in Alaska LNG could boost investor confidence in PANR’s long-term viability.

* Valuation uplift: As the pipeline moves closer to reality, Pantheon’s massive gas reserves (6.6 Tcf) become more monetizable.

* Strategic positioning: Pantheon is one of the few companies with gas ready to flow into the pipeline, giving it a first-mover advantage.

In short, while POSCO’s rise reflects Korean enthusiasm, PANR is already embedded in the project’s foundation. If momentum continues, PANR could see increased investor interest and upward price pressure.

As U.S. Energy Minister Chris Wright said he is discussing whether Korean corporations will take part in the Alaska liquefied natural gas (LNG) pipeline construction project he is pushing, related stocks were strong early on the 25th.

POSCO INTERNATIONAL shares were transacted at 50,900 won on the Kospi market at 9:24 a.m. on the 25th. The stock rose 4.52% (2,200 won) from the previous day.

POSCO INTERNATIONAL signed a preliminary contract with energy corporations Glenfarne to bring in Alaska LNG, among other steps, making it the first among Korean corporations to formalize a review of participating in the project.

Seems like most stocks tied in with LNG pipeline are on the rise…..:-)

Source: https://biz.chosun.com/en/en-finance/2025/09/25/GYADAULFOVHA7PM3SSTV2QPHCM/

And Canaccords update today…

Here's a summary of Canaccord Genuity’s latest research note titled “Dubhe – well testing schedule” on Pantheon Resources (PANR), published today, 24 September 2025:

Dubhe-1 Well Testing Update Canaccord confirms that testing operations at the Dubhe-1 well are now underway. This follows the successful drilling of a 5,200 ft horizontal lateral in the SMD-B reservoir, which exceeded expectations.

Testing Timeline

The flow testing program is expected to last 4–6 weeks.

Results will be released once testing is complete, likely in late October or early November.

Strategic Implications

This test is critical for validating the commercial potential of the SMD-B horizon.

Positive results could de-risk the broader Ahpun development and support Pantheon’s goal of achieving financial self-sufficiency.

Japan's top power generator JERA is in advanced talks to buy natural gas production assets in the U.S. for around $1.7 billion, people familiar with the matter said, the latest example of the Asian nation investing in America's energy sector.

JERA emerged as the top bidder for the assets owned by GEP Haynesville II, a joint venture between Blackstone-backed (BX.N), opens new tab GeoSouthern Energy and pipeline operator Williams Companies (WMB.N), opens new tab, after banks solicited offers in recent weeks, the people said, asking not to be identified because the discussions are private...

Source : https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/japans-jera-advanced-talks-buy-17-billion-us-shale-gas-assets-sources-say-2025-09-17/

I think you have it spot on Brombard….heres what AI has to say.

Otto Energy owns a 0.5% overriding royalty interest (ORRI) from the 44,000-acre Talitha Unit in Alaska, a right to a share of future oil and gas production. This is a retained interest from the 2021 sale of Otto's working interest in the unit to Pantheon Resources Plc, which operates the project on the North Slope. The ORRI ensures Otto benefits from any future production, even after selling its stake in the acreage.  

What this means for Otto Energy:

* Future Revenue: The 0.5% ORRI entitles Otto to a portion of the revenue generated from the sale of any oil or gas produced from the Talitha Unit. 


* No Operational Control: As an ORRI holder, Otto does not have any working interest in the property, meaning they are not responsible for the costs of operating the wells or conducting any exploration or development activities. 


* Strategic Asset: This ORRI is a long-term financial asset, providing potential future income without the capital expenditure and operational risks associated with directly owning working interests. 

Thank you Stas for your comprehensive reply….My view is that the 79 odd million that went to brokers would have had to be reported as trades on LSE? Or is this not the case ? Hence me saying overhang….:-)

You seem to expose yourself by exposing everyone else if I read your history !! And I’m not your son Louise…

Thank you Stas….definitely overhang :-)

Which broker you working for Louise ?. All making a small percentage on the 60 odd million ? Glad you filtered me and yes I am pro PANR but don’t necessarily agree with their ESG principles. Dork !!

So this will only move once the brokers have got rid of the placing shares…..I don’t think over 60 million have been sold in the last 2 days :-)

Stas…I think it’s an over hang from the placing….Only about 16 million share were taken up as far as I understand from the RNS….the other 60 odd million were only released yesterday to the market….so whilst we all thought retail were not involved in the placing this has proved not be correct…..am I reading this right? So imo….we can still buy at placing price until the brokers have released the rest to the market….and that’s why the sp is where it’s at…your comments are most welcome as always :-)