Member Info for BricksSA

And of course….an update for Mangrove short position….thanks Brombard :-)

Big buy below is above the asking price price….should swing soon…..what’s your take Stas level 2?

27-Aug-25 13:48:10 31.517 100,000 Buy* 31.30 31.45 31.52k O

Thanks I use Co Pilot to debate issues as regards my investments. As Brombard would say….make sure to ask the question correctly and debate his findings…..AI is here to stay….fortunately or unfortunately…but one has to obviously learn to live with it….I sometimes wonder whether the shorters get the same information from AI ? Lols.

Makes one think….why did he include Alkaid in the video ? Here’s my take on it….

Infrastructure Independence: Strategic Redundancy

* Dubhe-1 has its own infrastructure for flow testing and production curve definition, including a gravel pad that supports year-round operations.

* This setup allows Pantheon to test and refine production parameters directly at Dubhe, without relying on Alkaid’s facilities or logistical support.

🔍 What This Indicates

* Confidence in the resource: The fact that Dubhe exceeded pre-drill expectations—showing a 565 ft hydrocarbon column in the SMD-B horizon, 26% above projections—suggests Pantheon sees real promise here.

* Operational flexibility: By building standalone infrastructure, they can accelerate development and avoid bottlenecks or dependencies on other assets like Alkaid.

* Risk mitigation: If Alkaid faces delays or technical issues, Dubhe’s progress won’t be hindered. That’s classic “belts and braces”—covering all bases.

* Scalability: With additional hydrocarbon-bearing zones found in SMD-C and the Slope Fan systems, Dubhe could evolve into a multi-horizon producer. Independent infrastructure makes scaling easier.

Strategic Implication

This move suggests Pantheon is not just appraising Dubhe—they’re positioning it as a potential cornerstone of their North Slope development. It’s a signal to investors and partners that Dubhe isn’t a sidekick to Alkaid—it’s a rising lead.

Lols…this market is quite fragile on pending news. Yesterday I posted that Alkaid could be advantageous to PANR as it has the infrastructure to do both flow testing as well as production curve definition….. Dubhe on its own I learnt today can do both !!! That’s the way they designed it. Now isn’t that interesting…..it’s called a “belts and braces “ approach which imo… makes Dhube a racing cert…..should be off to the races soon :-) Hang in there whilst the MM’s pick up the pieces for the shorters.

For those interested…. The Lee Keeling report :-)

https://www.pantheonresources.com/index.php/investors/shareholder-documents/695-lee-keeling-associates-estimate-of-reserves-resources-and-future-net-cash-flow-for-the-alkaid-horizon-within-the-ahpun-field/file

And the Economic advantages.

Economic Advantages of Leveraging Alkaid Facilities

* Reduced Capital Expenditure (CapEx) Since the Alkaid Pad already has infrastructure in place (roads, pipelines, processing units), Pantheon avoids the massive upfront costs of building new facilities. This lowers the barrier to entry for bringing new wells online.

* Accelerated Time to Market With infrastructure ready, production from Dubhe-1 or other nearby wells can begin much sooner. Faster monetization means quicker cash flow and improved project Net Present Value (NPV).

* Improved Rate of Return According to an independent expert report by Lee Keeling & Associates, the Alkaid horizon—despite being the most marginal in Pantheon’s portfolio—can deliver real rates of return exceeding 20% due to its proximity to infrastructure2. That’s a strong signal of commercial viability.

* Optionality for Early Development The facilities create flexibility: Pantheon can test and produce from smaller or lower-quality reservoirs without committing to full-scale development. This de-risks exploration and appraisal efforts like Dubhe-1.

* Enhanced Cash Flow Forecasts With 79 million barrels of recoverable reserves estimated in the Alkaid horizon alone, using existing facilities boosts the economics of converting contingent resources into proven reserves—translating into stronger future cash flows.

* Support for Strategic Partnerships Demonstrating commerciality with existing infrastructure makes Pantheon more attractive for joint ventures or farm-outs, especially in capital-intensive regions like Alaska’s North Slope.

In essence, the Alkaid facilities act as a springboard—turning what might be marginal prospects into economically sound opportunities.

How Alkaid Facilities Support Dubhe-1

* Processing Infrastructure: The Alkaid Pad already houses production facilities that can be used to process hydrocarbons from Dubhe-1. This means Pantheon doesn’t need to build new infrastructure from scratch, saving time and capital.

* Strategic Location: The Alkaid Pad is located near the Dalton Highway, which allows for year-round access and logistical support for drilling and development activities at Dubhe-1.

* Production Testing: If Dubhe-1 successfully appraises the reservoir, the Alkaid facilities can be used to test and validate production deliverability, helping Pantheon establish a reliable production type curve.

* Gas Sales Agreement Support: The facilities also support Pantheon’s gas sales agreement with the State of Alaska, tied to the Alaska LNG project. Dubhe-1 could contribute natural gas volumes to this pipeline, and the Alkaid infrastructure helps facilitate that transition.

* Scalable Development: Success at Dubhe-1 could lead to broader development across the Ahpun field. The Alkaid facilities provide a scalable base for future wells, reducing the risk and cost of expansion.

In short, the Alkaid facilities are not just a convenience—they’re a strategic asset that could accelerate Pantheon’s move into full-scale production.

I agree Scot….easy 3 figures on the GAS component alone….my chat with Co pilot below :-)

Core Assumptions used….

The model uses three key variables:

* Oil Price Scenarios: $60, $75, and $90 per barrel

* Discount Rates: 10% and 15% (to reflect risk and time value of money)

* Production Scenarios: Conservative, Mid-Range, and High-Impact

Each scenario assumes different levels of production and gas revenue contribution.

Role of Gas Revenue Offsets

Gas revenue is treated as a cost offset mechanism:

* Instead of valuing gas separately, it reduces the net development cost of the oil project.

* This improves project economics, which in turn boosts the Net Present Value (NPV) and implied share price.

Scenario Breakdown

Scenario Gas Offset % Impact on Development Cost Implied Share Price

Conservative 20% Minor cost reduction 70p

Mid-Range 50% Moderate cost reduction £1.60

High-Impact 100% Full cost recovery via gas £3.50

* Conservative: Assumes modest production and limited gas revenue. The project is viable but not highly profitable.

* Mid-Range: Gas revenue covers half the development cost, significantly improving margins.

* High-Impact: Gas revenue fully offsets development costs, making the oil project essentially "free" to develop from a cash flow standpoint—hence the highest valuation.

For Brombard….:-)

Step-by-Step Gas Valuation

1️⃣ Known Recoverable Gas Resources

6.6 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of natural gas

Conversion:

1

,

000

 cubic feet

=

1

 mmBtu

→ So, 6.6 Tcf = 6.6 billion mmBtu

2️⃣ Gross Revenue at $1/mmBtu

6.6

 billion mmBtu

×

$

1

=

$

6.6

 billion total revenue

3️⃣ Net Profit Estimate

Assuming a 30% net margin (after costs, taxes, royalties):

$

6.6

 billion

×

0.30

=

$

1.98

 billion net profit

4️⃣ Shares in Issue

Pantheon has approximately 1.115 billion shares outstanding.

5️⃣ Value Per Share (Gas Only)

$

1.98

 billion

1.115

 billion shares

≈

$

1.78

 per share

Easy….I underestimated :-)

Step-by-Step Breakdown

1. Gross Gas Value

Recoverable Gas: ~17.8 TCF

Price per MCF: ~$3.00

Gross Value: ~$53.4 billion

2. Development Cost Estimate

Based on Alaskan infrastructure and Pantheon’s proximity to TAPS, estimated development costs range from $1.00 to $1.50 per MCF.

Let’s use $1.25 per MCF for a balanced estimate:

17.8

 TCF

×

1,000,000,000

 MCF/TCF

×

$

1.25

=

$

22.25

 billion

3. Net Value After Costs

$

53.4

 billion

−

$

22.25

 billion

=

$

31.15

 billion

📊 Per Share Valuation

Shares Outstanding: ~1.24 billion

Net Gas Value per Share:

$

31,150,000,000

1,240,000,000

≈

$

25.12

 per share

⚠️ Final Thoughts

This $25.12 per share is a theoretical valuation based on:

Full recovery of gas

$3.00 market price per MCF

$1.25 development cost per MCF

No discounting for time, risk, or financing

Thanks to Co pilot :-)

Without Oil or Helium……£1.50 ….easy…careful now ….dont settle for crumbs when you can eat the cake.

Same old same old…AIM…crooked MM’s and false buy sells….Hang in there guys….this one is bigger than you have ever seen…..Records will reflect.

Rather than “ The well confirms the presence and quality of the oil and gas reservoirs in the Ahpun field, exceeding our pre-drill expectations” …….apologies Seahawk:-) I now get where you coming from :-)

I mean pumping gas directly into the LNG pipeline with no CO2 is a far cry from the above statement.

Max Easley…..please take note and let’s make the shorters pay.

The point I am trying to make …..just as Seahawk previously mentioned….and now understand his point :-) we would like an RNS on the quality of the gas. if Ryder Scott has already confirmed Pantheon Resources as the preferred supplier as no CO2 exists and they can pump it directly into LNG Gasline….this is surely worth its own RNS….!! And we have Helium by all accounts so maybe an RNS due soon….hooefully :-)

Https://www.pantheonresources.com/index.php/investors/presentations/713-investor-update-july-2025/file

It is mentioned on page 8….seems like we all missed it.

So my guess is we definitely have Helium as well otherwise they would not have mentioned it.

Check page 9…..low cost access…..does not require CO2 removal :-)

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5b5a380231d4df96186b0298/t/67801bcec96f823e9caf6dd0/1736448983793/Alliance+Fairbanks+Chapter_Slides_January+8%2C+2025.pdf

How come no one has mentioned this before?

Sir Mark…..Did you know….If Ryder Scott has confirmed through due diligence that Dubhe gas requires no CO₂ removal, then we’re talking about pipeline-quality, high-BTU dry gas straight out of the reservoir. That’s gold in the LNG world.

I only discovered this today :-)

Thank you OlderWiser….I liked this one as it refers to the data room.Question 19.

What steps are being taken to attract farm-out partners or major industry participants?

Pantheon has previously stated that it will not provide a running commentary on data room activity. It engages with potential counterparties through its investment banking advisors, who have been retained to help position the Company for its planned U.S. listing, including potential non equity “pre-IPO” funding transactions. The Company expects that, following successful commercial demonstration from Dubhe-1, it will have greater leverage in any negotiations and will, as required, announce any price sensitive news as and when required under the MAR and the AIM Rules for Companies.

Page 9….Pantheon the preffered gas supplier :-)

This being the case and the gas sales agreement is signed off…we are off to the races Sir Mark :-)